After completing my US House analysis a few days ago, I figured it was time to post my US Senate analysis.
Some basic background:
1) On paper, the Republicans should be able to take the Senate, but they really only have a 20% chance of doing so due to some candidate issues, specifically in Nevada and Kentucky.
2) Right now, I estimate that the Republicans will gain 6 seats (winning 25 out of the 37) seats at play. This involves me breaking all the tossups for the Republicans except Kentucky and Wisconsin.
3) Democratic majority will remain intact with a 53 to 47 partisan breakdown in the Senate.
Safe Democratic (7)
Likely Democratic (1)
Leans Democratic (3)
Leans Republican (3)
Likely Republican (6)
Safe Republican (11)