SSP Daily Digest: 9/9 (Afternoon Edition)

• DE-Sen: Despite all the hullabaloo about the late-breaking surge by Christine O’Donnell (which, if you look at fundraising and ad spending, seems like it might not have been that much of a surge at all), both parties seem to be reconciled to a Chris Coons/Mike Castle race, according to CQ. O’Donnell seems to be hanging her hopes on a last-minute Sarah Palin endorsement, which, according to intense semantic analysis by Twitterologists, didn’t really happen with her recent retweety-hashtaggy thing.

• HI-Gov: Hawaii’s the last primary in the nation, and that also means it’s the last for pre-primary financial reporting. Neil Abercrombie, who’d been lagging Mufi Hannemann on the fundraising front previously, shot ahead for the months of July and August. Abercrombie raised $768K while Hannemann raised $330K. Hannemann still has the CoH edge, $792K to $275K.

• NM-Gov: GOPer Susana Martinez has led narrowly in most polls here, but the RGA isn’t taking this race for granted: they’re moving $500K to the Martinez campaign. The DGA is also continuing to fight here, and they seem to think they have something here with their own little Bonusgate story here (where Martinez allegedly spent border security money on staff bonuses instead); they’re running their second attack ad here, and it (like the first ad) focuses on the bonuses.

• RI-Gov: There had been rumors of this way, way back, but the RNC is revisiting them today, saying that Democratic candidate Frank Caprio talked to them about a possible party switch in February (back when he was still facing the more-liberal Patrick Lynch in the Dem primary). It’s unclear what the GOP’s angle is in releasing this now… their chances are pretty much DOA, so are they just hoping to deny the DGA a victory here (for post-election talking points purposes) by driving Caprio votes to Lincoln Chafee (the indie who seems to be running, for the most part, to Caprio’s left)?

• VT-Gov: The recount has begun for the ultra-close Democratic primary in the Vermont gubernatorial race, but instead of lobbing grenades at each other, 197-vote leader Peter Shumlin and runner-up Doug Racine are touring the state together in an RV, stumping along with the other three candidates. In fact, Racine is urging his donors to get behind Shumlin, despite having requested the recount. (So far, Shumlin’s lead has edged up by 9, with 10 of the state’s 14 counties having completed the recanvass.)

• WI-Gov: Here’s a good development, that a lot of other outgoing Dem incumbents might take a lesson from: Jim Doyle, with $1.8 million sitting around in his campaign funds as he ends his gubernatorial run, is transferring $1 million of that money to the Greater Wisconsin Committee, which has aired both anti-Scott Walker and anti-Mark Neumann ads.

• CT-05: Here’s one House GOP internal that’s getting a little stale, but somehow eluded us until just now: Sam Caligiuri put out a late-August internal from National Research showing him right on Chris Murphy’s heels, trailing 40-39.

• Committees: Jim Doyle’s not the only guy with money to burn who’s emptying out the piggy banks. Barack Obama will be transferring $4.5 million from his campaign fund, divvying it up three ways with $1.5 million each to the DCCC, DSCC, and DNC.

• Mayors (pdf): Two mayoral polls are out today. One is more timely, with the DC primary only days away: Clarus finds Vincent Gray ready to oust incumbent Adrian Fenty in the Dem primary, 45-38. We Ask America also pounces on the Chicago mayor question, despite a thoroughly unclear field, and finds Rahm Emanuel would be starting in the pole position out of 10 names they gave. Emanuel’s at 30, followed by Tom Dart at 14, and both Luis Gutierrez and Jesse Jackson Jr. at 13.

• Massachusetts: Here’s an interesting set of numbers out of the Bay State: despite the election of Scott Brown and running a competitive gubernatorial race, Republicans have actually lost ground lately in terms of registration. The GOP has lost more than 9,000 voters over the last two years, and are down to 11% of all registrations. Dems held almost even at 37%, while the ranks of the unenrolled grew (by 187K since 2006), up to 51% of the electorate.

• SSP TV:

• IN-Sen: The Chamber of Commerce is out with an anti-Brad Ellsworth ad hitting the usual “trillions of government spending” points

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin’s first TV ad attacks John Raese for running attack ads

• OH-Gov: The SEIU attacks John Kasich on his Wall Street days, with a “significant six-figure” buy

• PA-Gov: Dan Onorato’s first TV ad of the general is a 60-second extravaganza focusing on the revitalization of Pittsburgh

• IL-14: Randy Hultgren talks jobs

• MI-01: Gary McDowell’s first ad has testimonials from locals saying he’s just like them, only “better dressed”

• OH-18: Americans for Job Security is out with four anti-Dem House ads, in IN-08, PA-04, and PA-07 as well as the 18th… and we have actual numbers ($124K in OH-18, $415K in PA-04, $293 in PA-07, and $318K in IN-08)

• SC-05: John Spratt’s first TV ad of the cycle focuses, unsurprisingly, on his constituent service reputation and attention to local issues

• Rasmussen:

• AZ-Sen: Rodney Glassman (D) 37%, John McCain (R-inc) 51%

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 34%, Mark Kirk (R) 37%, LeAlan Jones (G) 12%

• MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 43%, Roy Blunt (R) 53%

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 50%, John Raese (R) 45%

161 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 9/9 (Afternoon Edition)”

  2. Roy Herron, on the heels of yesterday’s positive ad touting his legislative record, has launched a hard hitting negative ad accusing Fincher of breaking the law, supporting outsourcing, and being supported by groups wanting to eliminate social security. Pretty good ad.

  5. On one hand, it seems GOP primaries have become so unpredictable with teabaggers running amok. Anything is possible, I guess. But without Palin or Gingrich or “Joe the Plumber” or some other big name, who will motivate them to go all out for O’Donnell in DE?

    I guess Castle still has the edge here, but the NRSC really can’t take this one for granted.

  6. (at least that I have seen).  In order of how badly I want to see a poll.  Amazing how few there are, really.

    1. KS-03 – Moore (D) v. Yoder (R)

    2. MA-10 – ??? (D) v. ??? (R)

    3. NY-19 – Hall (D) v. Hayworth (R)

    4. MN-01 – Walz (D) v. Demmer (R)

    5. AZ-03 – Quayle (R) v. Hulburd (D)

    6. CA-03 – Lungren (R) v. Bera (D)

    7. CA-45 – Bono-Mack (R) v. Pougnet (D)

    8. NE-02 – Terry (R) v. White (D)

    9. MI-09 – Peters (D) v. Raczowski (R)

    10. PA-17 – Holden (D) v. Argall (R)

    11. UT-02 – Matheson (D) v. Philpot (R)

    12. OH-06 – Wilson (D) v. Johnson (R)

    13. RI-01 – ??? (D) v. Loughlin (R)

    14. LA-03 – Sangisetty (D) v. ??? (R)

    15. CA-18 – Cardoza (D) v. Berryhill (R)

    16. TN-06 – Carter (D) v. Black (R)

    17. GA-12 – Barrow (D) v. McKinney (R)

  8. Americans for Job Security is out with four anti-Dem House ads, in IN-08, PA-04, and PA-07 as well as the 18th… and we have actual numbers ($124K in OH-18, $415K in PA-04, $293 in PA-07, and $318K in IN-08)

    Maybe I am just an optimist but I do not know why AJS would put 318K into an un winnable race as some have called it in IN-08. Me thinks it could be more competitive than people think. Probably a lean R race but I would not be surprised to see Vann Haaften win. Then again I am an optimistic person.  

  10. I still find it quite unbelievable that Manchin is doing so poorly despite having a 70% favorability and 67% job approval by Rasmussen’s numbers? I want to know if Ras is way overstating Raese or if this race very well could become another headache for the DSCC.

  12. Key tweets, from earliest to latest:

    So you thought there would only be one #nvsen debate? Not so: Reid and Angle have now agreed to debate on F2F on Oct. 21 in Reno. #gameon     about 2 hours ago  via TweetDeck

    Thought I had seen it all in #nvsen, tweeps: Just got a call from Team Angle spox. Now he says they are not agreeing to debate. #shootme     about 1 hour ago  via TweetDeck  

    #    Dep campaign manager for Angle had given me green light. Reid folks had agreed. Now a spox can overrule? What planet am I on? Awaiting word.     about 1 hour ago  via TweetDeck

    Remember “Scanners” where people’s heads exploded. That’s how I feel right now. This is a Senate race, not a competition for h.s. president.     7 minutes ago  via TweetDeck  

    How Angle’s people can now argue, after she challenged Reid on F2F and her campaign aide agreed, that she won’t do the debate is…extreme.     6 minutes ago  via TweetDeck  

  17. Murphy 47 Fitzpatrick 43.  No polling memo released.  This contrasts with Fitzpatrick’s internal saying it is Fitzpatrick 48 Murphy 41.

    http://www.philly.com/philly/b…

    Bad news for Murphy.  He cannot even break 50.  

    Don’t know how to judge this poll though seeing we have not received a polling memo.  The Fitzpatrick poll had a polling memo and some stats from other races to compare and contrast with the statewide figures.

  19. Generic Ballot: R+8 among LVs (R+4 among RVs)

    FL-8: Grayson down 1.5

    HI-1: Djou down 1

    MN-6: Bachmann up 16

    NM-2: Teague down 5.4

    NY-1: Bishop up 6

    VA-5: Perriello down 8

    VA-8: Moran up 29

    Nothing that surprising, but it’s nice to know that his model is finally generating results.

  21. according to the Burlington Free Press Shumlin wins.

    http://www.burlingtonfreepress…

    after the recount, shumlin gained more votes than racine did (Shumlin increased his margin by 7 over racine) and Shumlin is almost certainly the nominee.  Expect a concession by racine sometime today.  

  22. Jim Costa (CA-20) to “Lean Dem” from “Likely Dem.”  Challenger Andy Vidak’s website discusses a poll, but does not disclose the numbers.  Costa has a large fundraising edge here.

  25. Martinez goes after a teacher featured in a pro-Denish National Education Association ad.  Turns out the teacher’s husband was prosecuted and convicted of kidnapping by Martinez’s office, and is now serving 23 years in jail.  If you’re the NEA, how do you choose that teacher, of all people, to do the ad?  But has Martinez overplayed her hand, attacking a private person, with guilt by association, no less?

    http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo…

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