NH, NY, and WI Results Thread #4

3:00am: Still no call in NH-Sen, or even much of any progress. Only a few more precincts trickled in over the last hour (now 83% reporting). Apparently they were Ovide-friendly areas, though, because Ayotte’s lead shifted down to 964. We can stick a fork in the last other race that’s still outstanding: incumbent Adrian Fenty has reportedly conceded to Vincent Gray in the Washington, DC mayoral primary. With that, we’re hanging it up for the night!

2:08am: If you’re wondering what’s up with NH-Sen, it’s still a smallish Ayotte lead, now with 82% reporting. Ayotte leads Lamontagne by 1,346 (still 38-37).

2:05am: And here’s some bigass news via the Twitter: Rick Lazio, who has the Conservative line, is planning to “fight it out” through November. Not that it’ll have an impact on the bottom line… now Andrew Cuomo gets to win 70-15-15 instead of 70-30.

2:03am: It’s over in NH-01: the AP has called it for Frank Guinta. With 81% reporting (91/113), he’s now beating Rich Ashooh and Sean Mahoney 32-28-28 (Mahoney got a late surge as Portsmouth came in). He has a 2,200 vote lead over Ashooh. The baggage-laden Guinta faces Carol Shea-Porter in November.

1:26am: One last projection from the SSP mainframe: we’re seeing a 1,838-vote win for Ayotte, and a 2,486-vote win for Guinta. That’s based on the latest batch of precincts (taking us up to 238 of 301, which is 79% in). Right now, Ayotte leads Lamontagne by 1,213 (38-37), while Guinta leads Ashooh by 2,237 (32-28).

1:22am: The AP has also called NH-02 for Charlie Bass. He currently leads Jennifer Horn 43-35, with a margin of about 4,000 votes, with 80% reporting. Unfortunately, facing the moderate and well-known Bass makes our matchup with Ann McLane Kuster more difficult than a matchup against teabagging Horn.

1:20am: AP has called the NY-AG race, and Maggie Haberman is reporting that Kathleen Rice has conceded, making Eric Schneiderman the Dem AG nominee. (Oh, who am I kidding… making him the AG.) It’s 34 Schneiderman, 31 Rice, with 91% reporting.

1:14am: And in NH-02, with 69% reporting, Bass leads Horn and Giuda 42-36-17. Bass’s lead is 2,708. Our model projects a 4,1110 vote win for Bass at night’s end.

1:12am: In NH-01, with 69% reporting, Guinta leads Ashooh and Mahoney 33-29-27. Guinta’s lead is 2,131. Our model projects, in the end, Guinta wins by 2,555.

1:10am: Another 10 precincts, so it’s 70% reporting. Ayotte’s up by 792 (still 38-38 with Lamontagne). That moves our projection to 1,576.

1:05am: 20 more precincts just showed up in NH, taking us up to 67% reporting. (Including all of Laconia reporting en masse, apparently.) Ayotte’s now leading Lamontagne by 700 votes. Our model has adjusted to project a final Ayotte victory of 1,593.

1:00am: If you’re wondering where we are currently, and not where we’ll be in the future, it’s Ayotte and Lamontagne both at 38%, with Ayotte up by 421. That’s with 60% reporting. (Bill Binnie is in 3rd at 14%, with 12K votes. If he spent $6 million of his own money, that’s only about $500 per vote.)

12:56am: SSP Labs is bending the curve downward: now we’re seeing a 1,441 Ayotte victory after everything’s been counted.

12:48am: Sarah Palin appears to have either dropped her BlackBerry on the floor, or else has lapsed into speaking Norwegian, with her latest Tweet:

Competitive trongmsgssent& tonite;congrats 2 the victors;Now, Commonsense Constitutionalists, let’s unite

12:46am: In case you were wondering, Mike Castle has now made clear that he will not endorse or otherwise support Christine O’Donnell. (No word on a Coons endorsement?) He also made clear that he won’t pursue a write-in bid, which would be most he could do.

12:44am: The AP has also now called NY-Sen-B’s GOP primary for Joe DioGuardi (who also has the Con line). He wins over Malpass and Blakeman, 42-38-20. With Kara departed from American Idol, I suppose Joe resumes being the most famous member of the DioGuardi clan.

12:41am: Here’s a couple calls from the “who cares?” department that we didn’t mention earlier: Jay Townsend (who also has the Con line) won the NY-Sen-A GOP line, 54-46, over Gary Berntsen. And in MD-Sen, Eric Wargotz eventually won the GOP nomination; he’ll face off against Barb Mikulski.

12:35am: SSP Labs has adjusted the NH-Sen projection, with the recent Ayotte surge. Now we’re looking at Ayotte by 1,783 in the end.

12:34am: Looks like Charlie Bass may have bottomed out early in NH-02 and is starting to put some distance between him and Jennifer Horn. Now he’s up 42-36, with 17 for Bob Giuda.

12:29am: Nathan Gonzales, ongoing debunker of the “anti-incumbent” meme, points out that as of tonight, 415 of 422 incumbents (House + Senate) have won re-election.

12:24am: In fact, the switch is already underway: the AP is seeing, for the first time, Kelly Ayotte in the lead. She’s up 39-38 (with a 200-vote spread), with almost half reporting. It doesn’t look like any of the bigger cities (other than Manchester and Nashua, who are done) reported anything, so the difference seemed to come from small towns.

12:22am: SSP Labs has kicked into gear, looking at NH-Sen by county-by-county extrapolation. It’s going to go down to the wire, but we’re seeing a 374-vote win for Kelly Ayotte at the end of the count.

12:07am: Matt Doheny wins the GOP nod against Doug Hoffman in NY-23. Cat fud lovers take note: Hoffman still has the Conservative ballot line for November… and Hoffman is Hoffman!

12:05am: We’re now at 40% in, and Ovide’s lead has whittled down to 733 votes. Guinta and Bass are both up by a cool grand.

11:58pm: Lamontagne’s lead has shrunk to 1127, and Bass is now up 910.

11:53 pm: Adrian Fenty is saved from Bob Inglis-dom, having recovered to a 45-54 deficit in DC.

11:50 pm: In New Hampshire, Charlie Bass in NH-02 is the only one who’s seen his lead increase, now to 668 votes. Guinta’s down to 891 in NH-01, and sadly, Ovide’s lead is now down to 1,324.

11:47 pm: For NY-AG, Eric Schneiderman now leads Kathleen Rice by more than 10,000 votes, mostly on his strength in NYC (44-25 over Rice). However, 71% of the city is now reporting, compared to 60% of LI. For NY-Sen-B, Joe DioGuardi continues to lead in all regions of the state with a narrow 42-39 margin.

11:44 pm: At least a second member of the NY State Senate has been booted tonight, the always-sketchy Pedro Espada. Note that both defectors, Espada and Monserrate, have been rejected by voters.

11:40 pm: Reid Ribble the Raging Roofer has been declared the winner in WI-08. Worst incumbent performance of the night, currently, goes to Adrian Fenty, who’s now staring at 70-29 deficit in the DC Mayoral primary. This is in contrast to Charlie Rangel, who’s just been declared the winner in NY-15 with 53%.

11:38 pm: We’re oddly back where we started in NH-02, where Charlie Bass’ lead over Jen Horn is now 203 votes. Guinta leads Ashooh by 950 votes in NH-01, and Lamontagne’s lead over Ayotte is now less than 4%.

11:36 pm: NY-13 has also been called for Michael Grimm.

11:34 pm: Out in NY-01, Randy Altschuler’s been declared the winner. Charlie Rangel is pulling a surprisingly strong 52% in NY-15, while Matt Doheny clings to a 7-point lead in NY-23.

11:26 pm: More NH precincts slowly trickling in, with Bass slightly padding his margin in NH-02, now up to 400 votes. Ovide’s lead continues to slide, now below 4.5%. Further up the ballot in New York, Eric Schneiderman now leads Kathleen Rice, though the city is now 47% reporting compared to 43% of Lawn Guyland. Joe DioGuardi continues to lead for the right to challenge Kirsten Gillibrand, narrowly leading Malpass in the City, on LI, Upstate, and Westchester.

11:22 pm: DavidNYC at the helm here. I’ve been waiting to write these words since February: The AP has called NY-14 for Carolyn Maloney. All is well in the Silk Stocking district. That is all. Carry on.

11:17 pm: With 88% reporting in NY-01, Altschuler is leading Demos 45-30, with Cox at 24.  This is unfortunate since Altschuler has the Conservative line as well, but cat fud lovers need not worry, as there’ll be Meow Mix afoot regardless in NY-23, as Doheny and Hoffman have split the Independence and Conservative lines. With 64% reporting there, Doheny is up 54-46.

11:13 pm: Back in New York, SSP’s ancestral home, there are a slew of House races to report on. Gary Ackerman has had a surprisingly weak performance in NY-05 floating in the 60’s all night, currently 66-34. Ed Towns has been declared the winner in NY-10, also with a 66-34 margin.

11:10 pm: In New Hampshire, Ovide’s lead over Ayotte continues to thin, as more of the areas outside Ovide’s I-93 strongholds start to report. Charlie Bass’ lead is now 220 votes, but with much left to report.

11:08 pm: Meanwhile, in DC, a few more non-absentee precincts have rolled in, with incumbent Fenty now finding himself in a 59-39 hole.

11:05 pm: Real World update: Sean Duffy’s been called the winner in WI-07 with 67%, while Kevin Powell is getting only 34% against Ed Towns in NY-10.

11:03 pm: It turns out that we’re not the only ones that find Rick Lazio boring and lifeless! The AP calls the GOP Gov nod for Carl “Welfare Prison” Paladino, who now earns the right to get his ass handed to him by Andrew Cuomo. Lazio, of course, still keeps the Conservative ballot line…haven’t we had enough Cat Fud tonight?

11:01 pm: These New Hampshire precincts trickle in mighty slowly, but they sure pack a punch. Charlie Bass is now only leading Jen Horn by 202 votes or 1.2% in NH-02. Ovide Lamontagne continues to maintain a slight edge over Kelly Ayotte, though she’s closed to within 5%.

10:58 pm: In the westernmost state tonight, Wisconsin, the GOP Governor’s nod’s been called for Scott Walker, who’s now leading Mark Neumann 56-41 with 37% reporting. In the House races, Sean Duffy has 67% in WI-07; Reid Ribble has 51% in WI-08.


260 thoughts on “NH, NY, and WI Results Thread #4”

  1. Anti-Equality NY St Senator Bill Stachowski has conceded in his primary fight to TIm Kennedy, who I believe is pro-marriage equality.

    Also, Shirley Huntley is at 58% against her pro-equality challenger.

  2. Can Lamontagne really win this (primary, that is)? And is his strong showing helping Horn in NH-02? Crazy, I tell ‘ya…

  3. Closed the gap to 42-37, or 2100 votes, with that last delivery of votes. Only 23% in, still time for this to go either way, and it could be a blowout for one of them by the time they finish counting next year.

    If the Republicans haven’t counted all the ballots by November 2nd, is Hodes the winner?

  4. That would be another improvement for D chances that can be attributed to R’s nominating weaker candidates.  

  5. Why is GOP turnout so pathetically low in New York State? For example, it looks like only 30,000 Republicans showed up in NY-01, which is worse than some districts in MA which are much more Democratic. Is there a closed primary, or just absolute lack of enthusiasm despite so many contested Republican primaries?

  6. Ive been a campaign volunteer at a polling place at closing.  My job was to get the results so the city council campaign could calculate a win/lose and know what to speech to give 45 minutes after polls closed.  After these people called in the numbers to the SoS, they gave them to us and we called them into the campaign.

    So what gives on vote counting taking so long.  Shouldnt it just take a quick computer tally and a phone call?

  7. ….and my crazy trifecta will be triumphant.

    Hopefully Palladino can do for the NY GOP what Fieger did for the Michigan Democratic Party.

  8. He’s third everywhere, even on his home turf (Nassau County). It looks to me like DioGuardi’s likely to prevail here, which might well be for the best. (For the GOP, that is.) DioGuardi’s feisty and has an OK resume. He just doesn’t have the money to compete, which Malpass (a less feisty guy) has.  

  9.  Lamontagne is losing his lead even in Rockingham and Hillsborough counties which had their first votes strongly for him? I do not think it was early votes because those would favor Ayotte.  

  10. can an entire political party seek therapy? Things are really getting out of hand with the cats on the other side of the aisle. I’m no longer convinced that they wont nominate Palin in 2012. Or Gingrich. Or the Syphillis Virus itself. I mean, why not cut out the middle-man, and nominate the inspiration for their 2010 slate, instead of trying to find someone who can speak for it? But it sure as f$ck be Mitt Romney.  

  11. Horn is essentially tied with Bass right now on the strength of big wins in just 2 municipalities: Nashua and Hudson, a suburb next door. Bass is winning everywhere else, including a key win in Concord, and the remaining towns are similar to what Bass is winning now: small, rural, Yankee, and less Tea Party friendly (I want to say “more moderate” but the m-word is getting harder to say.) Once Grafton and Sullivan are in, I think Bass will open up a lead.

  12. and light her wheel chair on fire. Are you kidding me?  The polls closed at 4 PM here (west coast) and its 8 PM now, with only 33.6% OF THE VOTE COUNTED?!?! ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!?!!?!

  13. She has been increasingly inching up since the initial numbers came in, and if it keeps looking like this, I think she wins.

    Its just horrible that we still have 60% of the votes uncounted (or reported), so Ovide may come in with a late surge, and I may not see it because I will be asleep.  I’m going to remind myself not to get invested in any of NH’s primaries anymore, it’s just too painful to watch.

  14. Without anything really up in the air anymore, I’m gonna go to sleep and, hopefully, wake up to find that DE royally fucked up (Even more than they already have) and they accidentally counted all O’Donnell votes for Castle and all Caslte votes for O’Donnell. 😛

  15. Eric Schneiderman 186,017 34%

    Kathleen M. Rice 168,353 31%

    This one will finish real tight.

    Only slightly over half of Nassau Co has reported and it’s going better than 2 to 1 for Rice.

  16. Democrats here will be happy to know that Sue Bump defeated Guy Glodis, who many SSPer’s dislike, for state Auditor. She’ll face off against GOPer Mary Connaughton in November.

    I was dead wrong on both primaries in MA-10. William Keating, from the northern part of the district defeated Cape Codder Rob O’Leary for the Democratic nomination, and young Cape Codder Jeff Perry crushed former State Treasurer Joe Malone for the GOP nomination.

    That race is setting up to be interesting. Keating is Norfolk DA, the same job Rep. Delahunt had before he was elected, so he can certainly win despite not being from the Cape. Perry had no trouble brushing aside civil liberties accusations in the primary and is in decent shape for the general if he can brush them aside again.

    Finally, in my home district, local lawyer Marty Lamb defeated four other Some Dudes and will fave Jim McGovern. He’s notable because he calls his plan to reduce the deficit the “Lamb Chop.” Genius. The seat is safe for McGovern.

  17. About Sara Palin might be speaking Norwegian: Yes, we have exported most of our right wing psycos to you, and now live in social democratic heaven with universal health care and other perks. But Sara Palin is not a product of us. She is home grown.  

  18. My only hope is that she gets 39% and Ovide gets 37%.

    If that happens, I will have predicted a primary right on the money.  As it stands now, this is totally possible.

  19. So I’m out, it has been stuck at 79.7% of precincts reporting for 30 minutes.

    Hopefully Lamontagne surges the last 20% and is ahead in the morning, or at least closed the gap ala Louis Wyman and John A. Durkin (in true New Hampshire style!)

  20. 1. States with no surprizes, where “everything went according to predictions” – Maryland, Wisconsin.

    There were some intersting details, including some anti-incumbet tendencies in legislative races in Maryland, but that’s almost all…

    2. States with some (but not many) intersting races – New York, Rhode Island, Massachusetts.

    After close Democratic primary in MA-10 there will be interesting general, but Perry, while very popular among conservative activists, is, probably, too conservative for this Democratic-leaning district, so Keating is favored.

    A somewhat interesting campaign may happen in RI-01: Cicilline is obviously favored, but votes in primary were split rather badly, so Loughlin may get a chance (yes, i know very well that this is generally Democratic district, but Republican represented it before Kennedy, so it’s possible for republican to win here, though it’s obviously difficult). There were some rather strong anti-incumbent tendencies in legislative primaries (naturally – more among Democrats) as well.

    In New York reformers beat 2 “anti-gay” state Senators in Democratic primary, but failed to beat 2 another and Rangel, so results in that aspect are  mixed. Schneiderman’s victory for AG makes that “slightly better then mixed” for reformers, probably. But Rangel, Towns and some other “ethically impure” congressmen survived. I didn’t expected the size of Paladino’s victory, but that’s, probably, has only theoretical importance… Republicans generally nominated “better” (though not much better) candidates among possible in Congressional races, so it will be intersting to follow some races (NY-19, and, may be, NY-01 and 13) in November in addition to NY-29, 24 and, may be, 20, but, most likely, not 23.

    3. Intersting results – New Hampshire. For time being it seemed to me that it will go Delaware’s way and nominate absolute crazies like Lamontagne (that’s still possible, he loses to Ayotte by less then 1000 votes and there are still some votes to count, but still – unlikely) and Horn in NH-02, but Bass was able to prevail, so, probably, there is still some shades of sanity among Republicans in some states…

    4. Crazy state. That title obviously belongs to Delaware. By nominating ultracrazy for Senate and almost as crazy for DE-01, republicans, most likely, gave both Senate and House (with Rollins some intrigue would still exist, though Carney would be favored just the same) to Democrats on the plate… This state reported first, so i even had a proposal for Republicans: “merge your party into Constitution party” for a while))))

  21. It appears that one County in New Hampshire, Stafford County, is bucking the trend in The Granite State, and decided to report all of its precincts.

    In other news, New Hampshire is still counting the votes to see who won the state in the 1992 presidential election.

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