3:00am: Still no call in NH-Sen, or even much of any progress. Only a few more precincts trickled in over the last hour (now 83% reporting). Apparently they were Ovide-friendly areas, though, because Ayotte’s lead shifted down to 964. We can stick a fork in the last other race that’s still outstanding: incumbent Adrian Fenty has reportedly conceded to Vincent Gray in the Washington, DC mayoral primary. With that, we’re hanging it up for the night!
2:08am: If you’re wondering what’s up with NH-Sen, it’s still a smallish Ayotte lead, now with 82% reporting. Ayotte leads Lamontagne by 1,346 (still 38-37).
2:05am: And here’s some bigass news via the Twitter: Rick Lazio, who has the Conservative line, is planning to “fight it out” through November. Not that it’ll have an impact on the bottom line… now Andrew Cuomo gets to win 70-15-15 instead of 70-30.
2:03am: It’s over in NH-01: the AP has called it for Frank Guinta. With 81% reporting (91/113), he’s now beating Rich Ashooh and Sean Mahoney 32-28-28 (Mahoney got a late surge as Portsmouth came in). He has a 2,200 vote lead over Ashooh. The baggage-laden Guinta faces Carol Shea-Porter in November.
1:26am: One last projection from the SSP mainframe: we’re seeing a 1,838-vote win for Ayotte, and a 2,486-vote win for Guinta. That’s based on the latest batch of precincts (taking us up to 238 of 301, which is 79% in). Right now, Ayotte leads Lamontagne by 1,213 (38-37), while Guinta leads Ashooh by 2,237 (32-28).
1:22am: The AP has also called NH-02 for Charlie Bass. He currently leads Jennifer Horn 43-35, with a margin of about 4,000 votes, with 80% reporting. Unfortunately, facing the moderate and well-known Bass makes our matchup with Ann McLane Kuster more difficult than a matchup against teabagging Horn.
1:20am: AP has called the NY-AG race, and Maggie Haberman is reporting that Kathleen Rice has conceded, making Eric Schneiderman the Dem AG nominee. (Oh, who am I kidding… making him the AG.) It’s 34 Schneiderman, 31 Rice, with 91% reporting.
1:14am: And in NH-02, with 69% reporting, Bass leads Horn and Giuda 42-36-17. Bass’s lead is 2,708. Our model projects a 4,1110 vote win for Bass at night’s end.
1:12am: In NH-01, with 69% reporting, Guinta leads Ashooh and Mahoney 33-29-27. Guinta’s lead is 2,131. Our model projects, in the end, Guinta wins by 2,555.
1:10am: Another 10 precincts, so it’s 70% reporting. Ayotte’s up by 792 (still 38-38 with Lamontagne). That moves our projection to 1,576.
1:05am: 20 more precincts just showed up in NH, taking us up to 67% reporting. (Including all of Laconia reporting en masse, apparently.) Ayotte’s now leading Lamontagne by 700 votes. Our model has adjusted to project a final Ayotte victory of 1,593.
1:00am: If you’re wondering where we are currently, and not where we’ll be in the future, it’s Ayotte and Lamontagne both at 38%, with Ayotte up by 421. That’s with 60% reporting. (Bill Binnie is in 3rd at 14%, with 12K votes. If he spent $6 million of his own money, that’s only about $500 per vote.)
12:56am: SSP Labs is bending the curve downward: now we’re seeing a 1,441 Ayotte victory after everything’s been counted.
12:48am: Sarah Palin appears to have either dropped her BlackBerry on the floor, or else has lapsed into speaking Norwegian, with her latest Tweet:
Competitive trongmsgssent& tonite;congrats 2 the victors;Now, Commonsense Constitutionalists, let’s unite
12:46am: In case you were wondering, Mike Castle has now made clear that he will not endorse or otherwise support Christine O’Donnell. (No word on a Coons endorsement?) He also made clear that he won’t pursue a write-in bid, which would be most he could do.
12:44am: The AP has also now called NY-Sen-B’s GOP primary for Joe DioGuardi (who also has the Con line). He wins over Malpass and Blakeman, 42-38-20. With Kara departed from American Idol, I suppose Joe resumes being the most famous member of the DioGuardi clan.
12:41am: Here’s a couple calls from the “who cares?” department that we didn’t mention earlier: Jay Townsend (who also has the Con line) won the NY-Sen-A GOP line, 54-46, over Gary Berntsen. And in MD-Sen, Eric Wargotz eventually won the GOP nomination; he’ll face off against Barb Mikulski.
12:35am: SSP Labs has adjusted the NH-Sen projection, with the recent Ayotte surge. Now we’re looking at Ayotte by 1,783 in the end.
12:34am: Looks like Charlie Bass may have bottomed out early in NH-02 and is starting to put some distance between him and Jennifer Horn. Now he’s up 42-36, with 17 for Bob Giuda.
12:29am: Nathan Gonzales, ongoing debunker of the “anti-incumbent” meme, points out that as of tonight, 415 of 422 incumbents (House + Senate) have won re-election.
12:24am: In fact, the switch is already underway: the AP is seeing, for the first time, Kelly Ayotte in the lead. She’s up 39-38 (with a 200-vote spread), with almost half reporting. It doesn’t look like any of the bigger cities (other than Manchester and Nashua, who are done) reported anything, so the difference seemed to come from small towns.
12:22am: SSP Labs has kicked into gear, looking at NH-Sen by county-by-county extrapolation. It’s going to go down to the wire, but we’re seeing a 374-vote win for Kelly Ayotte at the end of the count.
12:07am: Matt Doheny wins the GOP nod against Doug Hoffman in NY-23. Cat fud lovers take note: Hoffman still has the Conservative ballot line for November… and Hoffman is Hoffman!
12:05am: We’re now at 40% in, and Ovide’s lead has whittled down to 733 votes. Guinta and Bass are both up by a cool grand.
11:58pm: Lamontagne’s lead has shrunk to 1127, and Bass is now up 910.
11:53 pm: Adrian Fenty is saved from Bob Inglis-dom, having recovered to a 45-54 deficit in DC.
11:50 pm: In New Hampshire, Charlie Bass in NH-02 is the only one who’s seen his lead increase, now to 668 votes. Guinta’s down to 891 in NH-01, and sadly, Ovide’s lead is now down to 1,324.
11:47 pm: For NY-AG, Eric Schneiderman now leads Kathleen Rice by more than 10,000 votes, mostly on his strength in NYC (44-25 over Rice). However, 71% of the city is now reporting, compared to 60% of LI. For NY-Sen-B, Joe DioGuardi continues to lead in all regions of the state with a narrow 42-39 margin.
11:44 pm: At least a second member of the NY State Senate has been booted tonight, the always-sketchy Pedro Espada. Note that both defectors, Espada and Monserrate, have been rejected by voters.
11:40 pm: Reid Ribble the Raging Roofer has been declared the winner in WI-08. Worst incumbent performance of the night, currently, goes to Adrian Fenty, who’s now staring at 70-29 deficit in the DC Mayoral primary. This is in contrast to Charlie Rangel, who’s just been declared the winner in NY-15 with 53%.
11:38 pm: We’re oddly back where we started in NH-02, where Charlie Bass’ lead over Jen Horn is now 203 votes. Guinta leads Ashooh by 950 votes in NH-01, and Lamontagne’s lead over Ayotte is now less than 4%.
11:36 pm: NY-13 has also been called for Michael Grimm.
11:34 pm: Out in NY-01, Randy Altschuler’s been declared the winner. Charlie Rangel is pulling a surprisingly strong 52% in NY-15, while Matt Doheny clings to a 7-point lead in NY-23.
11:26 pm: More NH precincts slowly trickling in, with Bass slightly padding his margin in NH-02, now up to 400 votes. Ovide’s lead continues to slide, now below 4.5%. Further up the ballot in New York, Eric Schneiderman now leads Kathleen Rice, though the city is now 47% reporting compared to 43% of Lawn Guyland. Joe DioGuardi continues to lead for the right to challenge Kirsten Gillibrand, narrowly leading Malpass in the City, on LI, Upstate, and Westchester.
11:22 pm: DavidNYC at the helm here. I’ve been waiting to write these words since February: The AP has called NY-14 for Carolyn Maloney. All is well in the Silk Stocking district. That is all. Carry on.
11:17 pm: With 88% reporting in NY-01, Altschuler is leading Demos 45-30, with Cox at 24. This is unfortunate since Altschuler has the Conservative line as well, but cat fud lovers need not worry, as there’ll be Meow Mix afoot regardless in NY-23, as Doheny and Hoffman have split the Independence and Conservative lines. With 64% reporting there, Doheny is up 54-46.
11:13 pm: Back in New York, SSP’s ancestral home, there are a slew of House races to report on. Gary Ackerman has had a surprisingly weak performance in NY-05 floating in the 60’s all night, currently 66-34. Ed Towns has been declared the winner in NY-10, also with a 66-34 margin.
11:10 pm: In New Hampshire, Ovide’s lead over Ayotte continues to thin, as more of the areas outside Ovide’s I-93 strongholds start to report. Charlie Bass’ lead is now 220 votes, but with much left to report.
11:08 pm: Meanwhile, in DC, a few more non-absentee precincts have rolled in, with incumbent Fenty now finding himself in a 59-39 hole.
11:05 pm: Real World update: Sean Duffy’s been called the winner in WI-07 with 67%, while Kevin Powell is getting only 34% against Ed Towns in NY-10.
11:03 pm: It turns out that we’re not the only ones that find Rick Lazio boring and lifeless! The AP calls the GOP Gov nod for Carl “Welfare Prison” Paladino, who now earns the right to get his ass handed to him by Andrew Cuomo. Lazio, of course, still keeps the Conservative ballot line…haven’t we had enough Cat Fud tonight?
11:01 pm: These New Hampshire precincts trickle in mighty slowly, but they sure pack a punch. Charlie Bass is now only leading Jen Horn by 202 votes or 1.2% in NH-02. Ovide Lamontagne continues to maintain a slight edge over Kelly Ayotte, though she’s closed to within 5%.
10:58 pm: In the westernmost state tonight, Wisconsin, the GOP Governor’s nod’s been called for Scott Walker, who’s now leading Mark Neumann 56-41 with 37% reporting. In the House races, Sean Duffy has 67% in WI-07; Reid Ribble has 51% in WI-08.