KS-04: SUSA Says Pompeo Leads by 10, Goyle Poll Claims Otherwise

SurveyUSA for KWCH-TV (9/14-15, likely voters, 8/9-11 in parens):

Raj Goyle (D): 40 (42)

Mike Pompeo (R): 50 (49)

David Moffett (L): 3 (4)

Susan Ducey (RP): 4 (1)

Undecided: 4 (5)

(MoE: ±4.3%)

SUSA strikes again, finding Dem Raj Goyle trailing Mike Pompeo by 10 points in this deep red district. Pompeo is helped by an implausible 66-22 lead among 18-to-34 year-olds (up from 48-26 in August). Eventually, SUSA will have to seriously examine why their methodology is conducive to this problem while other IVR pollsters, like PPP, haven’t been plagued by the same issue. Another issue is a bit of procedural sloppiness – SUSA tested Libertarian David Moffett, despite the fact that he dropped out of the race and was substituted for Shawn Smith a week ago. Meanwhile, the Goyle campaign has released their latest internal poll:

Gerstein | Agne for Raj Goyle (9/8-9, likely voters, 8/10-11 in parens):

Raj Goyle (D): 44 (47)

Mike Pompeo (R): 46 (50)

Shawn Smith (L): 4 (-)

Susan Ducey (RP): 2 (-)

Undecided: 4 (3)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Their full polling memo is available below the fold. One area of concurrence between SUSA and Goyle’s pollster is that Goyle is running quite strongly among independents: SUSA gave Goyle a 7-point lead among that bloc, while Gerstein has Goyle up by 8.

35 thoughts on “KS-04: SUSA Says Pompeo Leads by 10, Goyle Poll Claims Otherwise”

  1. Goyle’s internal has him down by 2. If you knock off the standard 5 for selective release of internals, he’s down by 7, which makes this a rare case where the Survey USA poll basically “agrees” with other polls.

  2. hit the nail on the head in their analysis. If you want to know what’s going on in KS-04, why Goyle is running competitively, read their analysis. They nailed it.

    I just started seeing Pompeo’s general election ads a few days ago. Generally speaking, Goyle has had more TV ads than Pompeo up until now. That is part of what has helped establish Goyle’s name recognition and high favorables. Goyle has a lot of money, but so does Pompeo.

    All of Goyle’s ads have been positive. He talks about saving American jobs, supporting veterans, and opposing the Wall Street bailout. Goyle is running toward the middle, but Pompeo supporters are trying to portray Goyle as a far-left liberal.

    Goyle has not had many negative ads run against him yet, maybe none. I have not seen any. Pompeo is just starting a major ad campaign, which I am sure will eventually include a lot of negative ads against Goyle. The longer the race remains competitive, the more threatened Pompeo will feel and the more negative ads he will run.

    It would not surprise me if negative ads from Pompeo start hurting Goyle’s high favorables and reducing his support among moderates. The impact of any negative ads probably will not show up in polls until October. Pompeo has enough money to run negative ads around the clock and it’s just a matter of time before he does it. I hope Goyle stays positive, but he will have to respond in some way.

    Pompeo and Goyle are scheduled to debate next week.

    As for SurveyUSA, I have always thought there was something amiss about their crosstabs.

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