With the news that Washington state may receive a 10th Congressional District, I set out to develop a map that is favorable to Democrats and should lead to a 7-3 delegation split in bad years, and up to an 8-1 split in good years.
Washington has a bipartisan redistricting commission, so massive gerrymanders are off the table. When Washington received a 9th CD, the commission attempted to make the 9th competitive – I expect the same to happen with a 10th CD.
Anyway, this map creates a super-strong Republican seat east of the Cascades, and generally puts each major city in the Western portion of the state in its own district and connects that city with more rural portions of Western and Central Washington. (BTW, partisan data would be helpful here).
WA 1 (Inslee [open]-D) [Blue]
WA 1 still extends across Puget Sound to Kitsap County, but loses Bambridge Island and some Seattle precincts and extends to the eastern most portions of Snohomish County. The Kitsap portion of the District, as well as the western Snohomish portion should keep this District a safe Democratic one.
WA 2 (Larson D) [Green]
WA 2 retains much of its current form – Northwestern Washington. Like it does now, the district extends into Everett. If Larson holds on this year, the District should remain a Democratic hold.
WA 3 (open D) [purple]
WA 3 runs along the Columbia River and the Pacific Ocean. Inland it includes solidly Lewis County. In many years, this would be a Democratic seat, but control depends on who wins Clark County (and the City of Vancouver).
The coastal counties are more Democratic, and Skamania and Klicikat Counties did vote for Obama in 2008. In 2010 and 2012 this might be a tough hold, but as Vancouver becomes more solidly Democratic, so should the entire CD.
WA 4 (Hastings – R) [Red]
This district encompasses most of Eastern Washington – or at least Yakama and most of the low population counties east of the Cascades. Currently, both WA 4 and WA 5 are about 40-45% Democratic – this district would probably push that number to about 35%.
WA 5 (McMorris-Rogers – R) [Yellow]
While it may not be possible to create a safe Democratic district in Eastern Washington, connecting the Tri-Cities to Spokane may do the trick (to at least elect a Democrat – or make it a swing district). Whitman County voted for Obama and Spokane has two Democratic Senators in Olympia.
WA 6 (Dicks-D) [Teal]
WA 6 connects Olypmia to Kitsap County and extends to the Pacific Ocean. All of these counties are fairly reliable Democratic counties. Fairly in the sense that King, Snohomish, and sometimes Pierce Counties lead the way on Democratic issues in the state.
WA 7 (McDermott – D) [Grey]
Seattle.
WA 8 (Reichert – R) [Lavender]
WA 8 is strongly contested in 2010 by Suzan DelBene. Likely, the 2010 election will depend on how well she does in Pierce County.
To solidify the district, I chose to add several Democratic areas to the district – Renton and Kirkland. To add population to the district, I added the central Washington counties of Chelan and Kittitas. This is an area where I would like more partisan details, but both counties have voted for Democratic presidential candidates in the past.
WA 9 (Smith – D) [Bright Blue]
WA 9 was originally designed as a swing district twenty years ago – but has only been held by a Republican for only 2 years (1995-1997). For this map, it should stay a Democratic seat.
The district goes from the Seattle border to Puyallup and from Puget Sound to east King County.
WA 10 (open) [Magenta]
This new district is a Pierce County district. It includes Tacoma and Gig Harbor – and then races out to eastern Pierce county. This district should be competitive – or leaning Democratic in the worst years.
**Sorry for the quick write-up (I published the Diary before I was ready). Each district is + or – 744 from the ideal population size.
has results by city/precinct, but not sure.
I haven’t the patience to actually draw a map like this, and it’s really interesting to see what changes could be made.
I’m not sure you should put the Tri-Cities in the Eastern Washington swing district, though. This is basically the most Republican urban area in the state. McCain won Kennewick 16605-9644, Richland 14175-9216, and Pasco 7419-5822. I’m not sure where else you could extend the district instead, but I think these cities would neutralize the Democratic advantage in Spokane (where Obama got about 60%) and Pullman (home of Washington State University). Bridging the cultural divide across the Cascades might cause problems for the Eastern Washingtonians in the 8th, although Kittitas and Chelan counties have some Democratic areas. But overall, this is an pretty interesting and well-done map, and the work is appreciated.
This would be easier to follow if you would add the color to the description, e.g., WA-2 (Green).
I’m working on Version 2.0 of Daves Redistricting (Release date expected soon after election). Since I live in WA, I’ve played around recently with WA 10 districts (to test evrything) and came up with something a little similar. I, too, think having WA-08 jump across the mountains via the main passes makes the most sense. It seems much of the growth in the state has been in Clark County (near Portland, OR) but it’s also been scattered thru Snohomish County, Pierce County and King County. It will definitely be interesting in we indeed get a new district.
Regarding partisan data for the state, it does appear to be available, but doesn’t match up well to 2000 vote districts, which are the shapes available. If someone is willing to do the work to match it up, I will add it to the app’s data. (See recent diary of mine for details.)
Anyway, nice work.
This looks credible to me as a non-Washingtonian but would a commission (as opposed to the Dem-controlled legislature) really cross the Sound the way your 1st (and to a lesser extent 8th) do?