April 5 Election Results Thread #1

9:15pm: Follow the party here.

9:10pm: More of Milwaukee’s reported now, which is enough improvement such that Prosser’s now 1.5% below his primary performance.  KloJo will still need more to win this though.

9:06pm: According to Journal-Sentinel, Chris Abele now has a 60-40 lead over Jeff Stone with 10% reporting. Hopefully, this means we can expect some swings towards KloJo in Milwaukee County.

9:01pm: More results now – 12% in. Prosser’s underperforming everywhere…except Milwaukee County, Dane County, and the not contiguous “College Towns”, comprised of Eau Claire, La Crosse, and Portage counties.  Hopefully, this will change.

8:56pm: Clarendon County has reported in South Carolina, and the Dem is now leading 52-47.

8:45pm: More of Wisconsin in now, and Prosser is now slightly underperforming (-0.23%). KloJo has a 202-vote lead, but the disgustingly Republican Milwaukee burbs haven’t reported just yet. (Keep in mind, Waukesha + Ozaukee + Washington gave Bush a larger margin than Milwaukee gave Kerry).

8:40pm: With our first Milwaukee County precincts, Jeff Stone is up by 1%. Prosser at par with his primary performance now (+0.06%).

8:34pm: Kenosha County is going 64-36 for Prosser, but it’s also quite heavily polarized. With the last dump, Prosser is doing 1% better than in the primary, about 6% over what he needs overall.

8:30pm: 2.5% reporting now, with Prosser doing about 2% better than in the primary (assuming uniform counties). It’s still early – this is plenty likely to change.  We need Prosser to do about 5% worse for KloJo to win.

8:19pm: Ten precincts in now (does this mean I have to stop using just my fingers to count?). Prosser’s doing about 5% better than he did in the primary, but turnout in Dane County is 2x.

8:13pm: Hey, one precinct in Dane County (Madison)!  Kloppenburg’s at 60%.  Turnout in this one precinct is 2.5x what the average Dane County precinct was in the primary. (The flipside is that Prosser is doing 8.6% better in this one precinct than he did throughout Dane County in the first round.)

8:02pm: In South Carolina, heavily Dem HD-64 currently has a Republican lead of 5 votes, but only one of two counties has reported. (And I’m guessing not the Dem one, either.)

7:51pm: Checking out these Chicago results real quick – Rahm’s picks aren’t doing too well in the 24th and 25th wards.  Crusty old jackass Bernard Stone is losing quite handily in the 50th, and Che “Rhymefest” Smith (co-writer of Kanye West’s “Jesus Walks”) is holding incumbent Willie Cochran to 53% in the 20th.

Once again, Central Time shall prevail!

And so it is, 15 minutes to takeoff.

On the docket:

  • The marquee event, the Wisconsin Supreme Court race between the conservative-leaning incumbent David Prosser and Dem-leaning JoAnne Kloppenburg.

  • Milwaukee County Executive, which Scott Walker kindly left open between Walker crony Jeff Stone and  Dem Chris Abele.

  • The first test of Mayor Emanuel’s clout, with numerous City Council runoffs in Chicago, which Rahm hasn’t been shy to wade in.

  • Various local offices throughout Las Vegas and Clark County.

Results:

Wisconsin: AP | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

Chicago: AP

SC: SC SEC

Nevada: Clark County

175 thoughts on “April 5 Election Results Thread #1”

  5. Does Stone really have any chance of beating Abele?  Isn’t Milwaukee County pretty much a lock for Dems in any countywide election?  (How Walker won, I’m not sure, maybe it was a really bad election cycle like 2002)

    1. Douglas is counting all of Superior as one precint on their election website. The city has about 20,000 people so it will take a while to count all of the votes in each of the real precints and put them together to report them as one giant precinct.

  8. I heard from a friend of mine several that one of the most-Republican precincts in his area (around Chippewa County) is having pretty decent turnout:  about 3/5ths of the November 2010 turnout.  

    1. in Brown County, as with Green County (as I posted below), the numbers are basically the same as 2004. Which suggests a close race. I think the people who were predicting an IN-08 2006-style blowout are going to be proven wrong pretty soon.

      1. If there is anywhere where you could find pissed off union workers it would be Douglas. Also obama barely improved on kerry there.

    1. Project that 4% drop and he wins with 51%. I’m not saying that will happen, but it could.

  13. it’s from Dane County (Madison) and predictably goes to the Klop, 60-40. I don’t know if SSP Labs is running tonight, but Kerry (more or less the 50-50 baseline) won Dane 66-33.

  16. it would have been better or worse if the race hadn’t been nationalized and if people had just voted in what they thought was a more low-key race. I hope Kloppenberg wins but usually when the money comes in and things like making it a big issue starts then the Republicans may have more sway.

    1. And if I’m correct, it’s a plurality black or maybe slightly plurality white district, which can be swingy in southern states.

    2. The district is about 50/50 white/black. Obama got around 56% there, so he didn’t underperform too badly.

  19. Early returns from Douglas County (the northwest corner of Wisconsin), which is anchored by the very blue city of Superior, have Kloppenburg leading Prosser 58% to 42%.

  20. Only has one precinct. Apparently it is a reservation, so that doesn’t surprise me. But this is not to be confused with Menomonie Wisconsin, which is hope to “When in doubt, go to Stout” University of Wisconsin-Stout. I hate Wisconsin names, and that is saying something considering I come from the land of Koochiching and Wabasha Counties.

    1. although these few precints might be like Kenosha.

      These counties are not homogenous.  The small city precincts in general are Dem, the rurl ones are Rep.  Anything less than 10 precincts can really skew the results if they are all city or all rural.

  26. website, as of right now, Kloppenburg is ahead 12,358 to 6842 for Prosser.  Now, these are the earliest results and are from some of the smallest townships and communities in Dane County.  So there’s a long way’s to go yet.  None of the Madison wards are in yet, for example.

    1. Klop is underperforming a bit in the Milwaukee burbs so far. The 04 map is being turned on its head slightly. A lot of this will come down to turnout. If Waukesha’s number of votes is close to or more than Dane’s, that’s a bad sign.

  29. Currently it looks like he’s doing about 4% worse than in the primary, which would let him squeak by with 51%. Of course, it’s still early.

    1. candidates are not identified by party on the ballot, then some voters may not look at them the same way.  Most people know what there party really is but not everyone.

  38. the county closest to fully being in, Columbia (77% reporting), is where Klop is overperforming.

    Still, I’m starting to worry that I was right to vote that Prosser would win in the poll. (at least I get to be right…)

  39. So far it’s 60-40 for Kloppenburg. All the precincts are from small towns outside of Superior so far. The largest one is probably Solon Springs.

  46. Variable volume here matters more.  In past elections, turnout is more or less turnout.  Today, it would not be a surprise if turnout in one county is 10% above the norm and in another 10% below the norm.  Variance may in fact be much more than that.

    For example, if turnout in Milwaukee is 1/3 higher than the rest of the state, it wouldn’t matter one little bit if Klopp underperformed Kerry by 2%.  She’d win easily.

  47. This is going to be a long, back and forth night. Milwaukee will decide this, as they are less than 1% reported, and the biggest county in the state, by far

  49.  Green County which voted for Kerry by 6 is voting for Klop by 6. Something else is that the polling places with long lines are still voting and they will report later. Those are the polling places with large numbers of Democrats.  

  53. In one prosser has 27 votes compared to walkers 56 last year well kloppenberg has 55 compared to 67 for barrett last year.

    That seems like a pretty big loss of walker voters so if that holds in the county she will probably win it.

  57. Six precincts left, six point margin (Kloppenburg lead).  Barrett won with 49.8% here.

  59. All of the City of Madison is still out. Most of the rest of the county is in. Klop 65-35

  60. both Ward 41 and 45 are one precinct away from being done. The Repub is done 51-49 in 41, pretty much guaranteeing a loss. the Repub is ahead 28 votes in 45, so that one could be a nailbiter.

  61. identified on the ballot as R and D?  If not, it would make it more difficult to compare to other elections.

  64. Chippewa County is 51-49 for P and voted 51-48 for Bush

    Iowa is 38-62 for P and 42-57 for Bush

    Marinette is 59-41 for P and 53-46 for Bush

    Overall, looks like a mixed bag in the rural areas with some counties voting more Republican and a few voting more Democratic. These counties are not all in yet though so the votes can change.  

  67. Most of Superior is in now (all but 1 precinct). They went 73, 77, 71, 71, 70, 75, 75, 65, and 73 for Kloppenburg. She leads county wide 70-30.

  68. I noticed that Milwaukee has more precincts reporting that Dane, but about 1/3 as many total votes. That means either the the precincts are smaller in Wilwaukee, the rural areas of Milwaukee reported first, or turnout is much higher in Dane. Any insight?

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