Author: Trent Thompson

Two weeks ago, Republican Rep. Deborah Pryce (OH-15) announced her plans not to run for re-election. Considering that Pryce defeated Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy by a razor-thin margin in 2006 in a district with a PVI of R+1.1, this seat was already going to be competitive in 2008. But as an open-seat, it quickly looked like one of the best prospects for a Dem pickup. 

And now things just keep getting better for our side as it appears that the NRCC is having trouble fielding a candidate in the race:

Northeast Ohio native and former Attorney General Jim Petro has ruled out a run for Congress, setting his sights instead on Ohio's next Supreme Court chief justice.  Party leaders, including House GOP leader John Boehner of Ohio, had urged Petro, a moderate Republican who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2006, to run next year for a seat being vacated by U.S. Rep. Deborah Pryce of suburban Columbus.

And shortly afterwards: 

Former Mayor Greg Lashutka said today he will not seek the GOP nomination in 2008 for the 15th Congressional District seat being vacated at the end of next year by retiring Rep. Deborah Pryce, an Upper Arlington Republican.  Lashutka ruled out a run about an hour after former Attorney General Jim Petro said he will not seek the congressional seat, leaving local GOP officials scrambling for a candidate against Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy, the favoried Democrat who narrowly lost to Pryce in 2006.

This comes on the heels of two other recruitment failures for the NRCC as State Sen. Steve Stivers and State Rep. Jim Hughes both turned down a race for the seat.

(h/t Buckeye State Blog)

Many will remember that there was a time when Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL) looked vulnerable. His SUSA numbers were dipping, internal polling showed he was beatable, and a majoirty of Alabamians disapproved of his unwavering support for President Bush and the Iraq War. Not only was Sessions vulnerable, but there was also a viable challenger in Alabama Ag Commissioner Ron Sparks.

However we all know how the rest of this story goes. Sparks considered and declined a challenge to Sessions, explaining his decision as a logical one since he had been told that he could expect substantial primary opposition from State Senator Vivian Figures of Mobile. Sparks believed that it would be impossible for a Democrat to emerge from a divisive primary and then, bloodied and broke, have a decent shot at defeating Sessions.

Since Sparks' announcement in late June, Figures has been seen as dragging her heels in launching a campaign. Figures had planned a campaign announcement for July 14th, but that date came and past without any word from her. However, Figues has now made it official that she plans to challenge Sessions.  Considering that she's never held (nor run for) statewide office and is absolutely unknown outside of her district, Figures will have a tough time of it. Most likely, she'll be best remembered as a politician who let her own personal ambition get in the way of Democratic chances of picking up a US Senate seat in the Deep South.

(First off, I'd like to thank DavidNYC for asking me to join the Swing State Project team. While the South and its unique brand of politics is my area of greatest familiarity, I'll try not to focus too much on races from below the Mason-Dixon. In any case, I'm looking forward to writing here at SSP and contributing to the electoral analysis and discussion that the site's known for.)

Over the past few months, conventional wisdom has been that Republican “Bobby” Jindal is an inevitability in his campaign for governor of Louisiana. While that opinion's been reinforced by a few polls, there's also plenty of evidence and polling with which to argue the contrary. 

Being the front-runner certainly carries its benefits for Jindal, but it also means that he'll be the guy with a big bullseye on his back throughout the campaign. Over the next two months, Jindal's opponents will unload their campaign warchests in a concentrated effort to dampen his support and lower his numbers.

Independently wealthy Democratic State Senator Walter Boasso has been airing ads for over a month with some success. In his ads, Boasso slams Jindal's paper-thin record and highlights Jindal's close ties with the Bush administration. But Jindal is also facing trouble from his right, as wealthy GOP businessman John Georges has $7 million COH with which he plans to argue he is the “true conservative” in the race.  In addition, Democratic Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell has over $1 million in his account. To top it all off, the Louisiana Democratic Party has commenced a major ad buy tarring Jindal.

And of course, the scandal involving Sen. David Vitter's patronage of prostitutes has tarnished the image of the state GOP. To make matters worse for Jindal, he's taking flak from both sides on this issue. Many are upset with Jindal for not calling for Vitter's resignation, while conservatives like Georges are accusing Jindal of “abandoning” Vitter.

Considering that this race is just now heating up although Jindal's been considered an heir-apparent by the media for months, Democrats should take heart from a recent poll commissioned by Georges. In the poll conducted in late July, only 38% of Louisianans said they're planning to vote for Jindal. And the way I see it, he's got nowhere to go but down from there.

This race is far from over. For local updates, keep an eye on the Daily Kingfish.