OR-SEN: Election Pregame–Polling, Videos, Articles, Results Info!

Hey there folks, TJ from Loaded Orygun here–Oregon’s progressive community and a member of the 50-State Blog Network.

All eyes are obviously turned towards Oregon later tonight, but without any results until at least 11pm eastern–and no exits to pore over–some folks might get a little edgy from all the “Obama can’t hack the working class” nonsense on cable and need a distraction to get ready for the GOOD news.

The first thing to check out is the nuts and bolts election info provided by one of our members, skywaker9. Ballot dropoffs, other websites to visit, where to get results, how vote by mail works here–lots of great stuff.

We’ve been mostly covering the Senate race between Steve Novick and Jeff Merkley, and I’m sure what most folks would like to know is, who’s gonna win? And the answer is…no one knows for sure. But there have been four polls in the last 8 days on the race, and taken together they definitely give us some clues.

Want something a little peppier, visual and shorter to read through? What’s easier than videos? Check out the candidates responding to the most recent SUSA, Novick’s ad on Hardball last night, and what some pundits have called “the best 90 seconds of the primary.”  

Finally, a look at some of the many non-Oregon publications that have featured Novick or addressed the Senate race. Prominent among recent articles is the AP piece essentially pitting Novick against Chuck Schumer, but there’s also a top-notch bio piece by the Oregonian if you need to find out more about the man, a great interview in slashdot–plus links to all of the 12 state newspapers that endorsed Novick.

Enjoy your virtual visit to Oregon, and I hope your candidate wins!

OR-SEN: Novick $ Jumps–$139K April, $1mil total, $30K in Two Days

[crossposted in part at Loaded Orygun, Oregon’s progressive community…]

Not having a second home or Chuck Schumer to rely on, yesterday Steve Novick made one more personal appeal to supporters in the primary, giving the whip to Seabiscuit as it were: help me close strong.

It sure is working; the Novick campaign today announced a quadfecta of eye-raising numbers for the supposed underdog:

  • Over $1 million now raised for the cycle
  • Just under $139,000 in April, a monthly pace 21% higher than for the three months of Q1 (which itself was 57% higher than Q4 last year)
  • A whopping $30,000 raised just since MONDAY.
  • Over $500,000 raised so far via ActBlue

From the campaign:

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Steve Novick's campaign announced today that it raised $138,983.98 in April 2008, passing the $1 million mark to raise $1,028,435.94 the election cycle.

"Our fundraising continued to accelerate in April with the vast majority of our support coming from right here in the state of Oregon," said Jake Weigler, Novick campaign manager. "We've proven that a grassroots campaign can attract the other green stuff too."

Novick's contributions continued to come overwhelmingly from Oregon, with $107,819.68 (77.5 percent) coming from within the state. Overall, 963 contributors gave to the campaign in April, 817 from Oregon. Previously, in the first quarter of 2008, Novick outraised primary opponent Jeff Merkley by 42 percent in itemized contributions from Oregon ($187,722.92 to $131,734.16).  

Novick also continues to receive substantial online support from netroots donors. The campaign has raised over $30,000 online since Monday, bringing the total raised through the online Democratic clearinghouse ActBlue to over $500,000. Novick is currently the third highest U.S. Senate candidate in the nation on ActBlue, behind only Mark Warner of Virginia and Rick Noriega of Texas.

"When you look at how far Steve and the campaign have come, it is a rather remarkable journey," said Weigler. "He entered this race as an underdog placeholder. Today he's raised over $1 million and continues to lead in every public poll in the race.  People across Oregon are ready for a principled progressive who isn't afraid to tell the truth about what it will take to turn our country around."

[emph mine]

With fewer than two weeks until ballots are counted, money for advertising and GOTV is crucial. Also valuable as information, is the fundraising appeal power of the candidates with an eye towards the general election. Looks like there’s a late kick going on at the Novick camp.

OR-SEN: Novick Sweeps Portland Paper Endorsements

There are three Portland-based, general circulation newspapers: The Oregonian, The Willamette Week, and the Portland Mercury*. The number of times they've all endorsed the same candidate for a major office recently can probably be counted on one hand (or less!), but when it comes to the Democratic nomination for Senate, they're in perfect harmony: they want the guy with the hook.

We covered The O's big Sunday endorsement of Steve; let's add in the others. First, Willamette Week, whose nod may certainly have been less of a surprise than that from the House of Stickel, but which comes on the heels of a joint endorsement interview Novick's critics–and even some supporters–mark as his low moment of the campaign. The ed board may or may not have liked Novick's answers on the peripheral questions of the race, but they liked Merkley's issue positions even less, making note of three separate areas of "concern."

In the end, the editors appear happily surprised to have Novick exceed their expectations to become a legitimate, solid candidate with the potential for greatness:

Let’s be clear. Back in January 2007, Novick was little more than a placeholder. Novick has a rapier wit, a winning affinity for sports references and an impressive behind-the-scenes résumé working for worthy causes. But Oregonians were waiting for another, more credible Democratic challenger to Smith, a telegenic senator who’s raised boatloads of cash and worked to style himself in the moderate image of past Republican icons such as Mark Hatfield, Bob Packwood and Tom McCall. We all thought that other person would come along.

We were hotly divided between the fun, speak-his-mind insurgent who calls to mind the late Sen. Paul Wellstone and the impassive Merkley, who calls to mind the widely respected Sen. Al Gore—the wooden version, before he became as steaming as the planet.

In the end, we rallied around Novick because we see a capacity for a refreshing independence and an unwavering willingness to tackle our toughest issues, like providing universal health care and ending the war in Iraq. We recognize, too, he could be a spectacular failure, a quotable firebrand for the left who is both alienating and alienated. Our hope is he commits himself to becoming the Senate’s best workhorse before shooting for the ranks of Sunday talk-show showhorse. Novick, please play nice.

 {the Merc's endorsement, and even bigger swipe at Merkley, below}  

 Near the bottom of a long list of City endorsees, in today's issue The Merc gets to the statewide races and makes their call for Senate:

We've gone back and forth on this endorsement for weeks. Were we choosing the candidate who would make the best US Senator, or were we picking the one best suited to topple formidable Republican Gordon Smith—someone who'd put up a better fight, even if they weren't ultimately successful?  

Finally, we realized that attorney and political activist Steve Novick is the best choice on both counts. Not only will he give Smith the toughest challenge—just look at the momentum he's got against Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley, a solid political leader, and the guy plenty of Democrats assumed would be coronated as the nominee—but assuming he wins in November (and we're starting to believe he can), we're excited to see what he'd do in DC.

At first, we thought his campaign was heavy on schtick—relying on viral ads highlighting Novick's steel hook prosthetic left hand—and short on evidence that Novick would be an effective representative for Oregon. But as the campaign has heated up, we're pleased to see that Novick's record on things like taking on the Oregon Lottery Commission to fight for more school funding has translated well to federal policy issues—we have no doubt that Novick will be a strong advocate to end the war, create universal health care, and help the working class.

The brainy Novick's penchant for saying exactly what's on his mind has gotten him in trouble a few times, but it's apparent that he's learning to temper that impulse. That said, he'll continue to do things differently, in a way that makes you wonder why more politicians don't follow his lead. Meanwhile, his opponents like Candy Neville and Jeff Merkley are virtually on the same page when it comes to agendas and policy positions. Smith, however, would trounce Neville. While Merkley would likely be a solid senator, given his track record leading Democrats in Salem, we're just not that into him. Vote for Novick. [emph me]

Ouch. Leave it to the Merc to put out there as plainly as possible: Jeff Merkley just does not inspire many people, or make them believe that he has the potential for greatness. This is an election to get excited about making real change, and Merkley is coming up short. 

What's the practical value of these endorsements? Hard to say, although there is certainly some kind of benefit to having all three major papers backing the same guy (especially, as I said above, when they generally don't agree). Veteran OR politico Charlie Burr thinks he has an idea of their impact, however, and he states it in comments at BlueOregon:

The Mercury endorsements will matter more than usual this year for the same reason WWeek's will: 30,000 new voters registered by the Oregon Obama campaign. The Obama campaign may have registered them, but these new voters will still be looking for additional cues for other races on their ballots.

 

 You do have to figure that particularly with these latest two, the demographic skews towards younger voters. And with a lot more younger voters in the mix who cannot WAIT to vote in this primary, there's no question that seeing Novick's name downticket in the endorsement will help shade some of those folks–who may be so jazzed about the Pres race that they haven't been following some others–towards Steve. Nothing wrong with that!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*The Portland Tribune obviously exists as well, but for the purposes of endorsement the Pamplin ownership group makes a blanket call for all its papers in the area; and while there are other papers publishing in Portland, they are aimed at specific rather than general audiences.

OR-SEN: State’s Biggest Paper Endorses Novick

From  Sunday’s Oregonian, the state’s largest paper–serving about 1 in 10 Oregonians:

For Democratic Senate nominee: Steve Novick

Oregon Democrats have long coveted the seat of Sen. Gordon Smith, the only Republican currently holding statewide office. They consider him vulnerable because of the way he has supported the policies of an unpopular president while managing to rile many in his party. And in a year in which Democrats are expected to gain ground in Congress, they just may be right.

We think the candidate they should send to face Smith is, in some ways, the unlikeliest one of all: Steve Novick, an Ivy League lawyer who stands 4′-9″ and has a hook instead of a left hand.

This choice is unorthodox not just because of Novick’s remarkable personal characteristics and history, but because the Democratic Party establishment is supporting another solid candidate, Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley. Merkley launched his campaign after other prominent Oregon Democrats decided not to undertake the rigors and risks of a race against a well-heeled incumbent.

 

{ the closer, below}

Merkley has been everything Oregonians could want in a House speaker. Even his opponents harbor him little ill-will, crediting him with restoring a measure of civility to a divided chamber. But watching this campaign, Democrats may want to take a sharper course.

Novick is an unusual man with an unusual resume — characteristics that some suggest aren’t suited to the U.S. Senate. But we think his passion, his intellect and his personal style give him an intriguing combination of qualities that most senators don’t possess.

We think Novick represents a bold choice for Democrats who seek to dislodge a veteran incumbent. He has the potential to press Smith as he has done Merkley. And, should he pull off what would be a major electoral upset and go to Washington as the new junior senator from Oregon, he has the potential to make Oregonians proud.

Whatever you may think of The O’s board, the value of their endorsement, or their winning percentage, they certainly understand what Steve’s approach is and why it looks so appealing to a lot of people. “Passion, intellect and personal style” is a good way to wrap it up.

They also recognize the strange and magnificient electoral cycle we’re in, and the possibilities for a more sweeping change that brings us better Democrats, not more Democrats. More straight talk, less parsing. A return to greater equity between work and wealth, people and corporations. A decency towards all men and women, and a fierce revival of the keystones of our American goverment–privacy, freedom, peace through defensive strength and strong diplomacy, and economic justice.

For Democratic Senate nominee: Steve Novick

You bet your ass. One can never tell what the impact of a newspaper endorsement will be, and I think most would agree that their influence has steadily declined over the years.

However, The O is still the Pacific Northwest’s largest circulating paper according to Wikipedia, and stands as the established media’s preeminent presence in the state. Had the paper chosen Merkley I think most would have written it off as the expected move; that they were seemingly so impressed by Novick during his interview (and I did hear from witnesses that he absolutely crushed it) is rather more notable. It’s always more of a story when the nontraditional candidate gets the nod, and this endorsement is no different.

By my count, that gives Novick:

*The most coveted individual (fmr gov Kitzhaber)

*The most coveted organization (Oregon Education Association)

*The most coveted newspaper (Oregonian)

*The coolest endorsement to “the kids” (Michael Stipe of REM, Stone Gossard of Pearl Jam, and a number of others)

With just a week until ballots are delivered, and less than a month until they are counted, Novick appears to be gaining momentum for victory.