HotlineTV had a fun 20 minute episode today featuring editors Chuck Todd and John Mercurio making predictions for all the districts that they deemed to be competitive. It was almost comprehensive, but they neglected to make calls on at least a few districts that are in some degree of play this year: IL-06, IL-08, IL-10, NE-01, NY-03, SC-05, TX-17, VT-AL, WA-05, and WY-AL, for instance.
I’ve reproduced their predictions in full below. Now, I’m not saying that either of these guys will be right, but we might as well use this as a conversation stimulator. How many seats will we win on Nov. 7 in the House and Senate? Which ones will they be, and why? Will the Republicans manage to snag at least one pickup in the House or Senate this year? How about the Governor’s mansions and state legislators or any other important election that you’re keeping an eye on? We had our prediction contest a few weeks ago, but now it’s time to broaden the playing field.
| District | Todd | Mercurio |
|---|---|---|
| AZ-01 | Renzi | Renzi |
| AZ-05 | Mitchell | Mitchell |
| AZ-08 | Giffords | Giffords |
| CA-04 | Doolittle | Doolittle |
| CA-11 | McNerney | Pombo |
| CA-50 | Bilbray | Bilbray |
| CO-04 | Paccione | Musgrave |
| CO-05 | Lamborn | Lamborn |
| CO-07 | Perlmutter | Perlmutter |
| CT-02 | Simmons | Courtney |
| CT-04 | Farrell | Farrell |
| CT-05 | Murphy | Johnson |
| FL-08 | Keller | Keller |
| FL-09 | Bilirakis | Bilirakis |
| FL-13 | Jennings | Jennings |
| FL-16 | Mahoney | Mahoney |
| FL-22 | Shaw | Klein |
| GA-08 | Marshall | Marshall |
| GA-12 | Barrow | Barrow |
| ID-01 | Sali | Grant |
| IN-02 | Donnelly | Donnelly |
| IN-08 | Ellsworth | Ellsworth |
| IN-09 | Hill | Hill |
| IA-01 | Braley | Braley |
| IA-02 | Leach | Leach |
| IA-03 | Boswell | Boswell |
| IA-04 | Latham | Latham |
| KS-02 | Ryun | Ryun |
| KY-02 | Lewis | Lewis |
| KY-03 | Yarmuth | Northup |
| KY-04 | Lucas | Lucas |
| MN-01 | Walz | Walz |
| MN-06 | Wetterling | Wetterling |
| NE-03 | Smith | Smith |
| NV-02 | Heller | Heller |
| MV-03 | Hafen | Porter |
| NH-02 | Hodes | Bass |
| NM-01 | Madrid | Madrid |
| NY-19 | Kelly | Kelly |
| NY-20 | Sweeney | Sweeney |
| NY-24 | Arcuri | Meier |
| NY-25 | Walsh | Walsh |
| NY-26 | Reynolds | Reynolds |
| NY-29 | Kuhl | Kuhl |
| NC-08 | Hayes | Hayes |
| NC-11 | Shuler | Shuler |
| OH-01 | Cranley | Cranley |
| OH-02 | Wulsin | Schmidt |
| OH-12 | Shamansky | Tiberi |
| OH-15 | Kilroy | Kilroy |
| OH-18 | Space | Space |
| PA-06 | Gerlach | Murphy |
| PA-07 | Sestak | Sestak |
| PA-08 | Murphy | Murphy |
| PA-10 | Carney | Carney |
| TX-22 | Lampson | Lampson |
| TX-23 | Runoff | No Runoff |
| VA-02 | Kellam | Drake |
| WA-08 | Burner | Burner |
| WI-08 | Kagen | Kagen |