This is my first go at rating the House races this cycle. Like 2006, there appear to be far more targets for the Democrats than the Republicans–despite the fact that the Dems now hold more seats and have a large freshman class. These factors are offset by the rash of GOP retirements, the fact that the GOP won most of the close races in 2006, and the money disparities both between the DCCC and NRCC and between individual Dem and GOP candidates.
Unlike 2006, however, there are a sizable number of Dem seats on the list–mostly freshmen who took GOP seats last cycle. As I have explained in the past, these rankings are based on my “vulnerability score”, a mathematical formula which takes into account objective measurres like an incumbent’s 2006 electoral performance and a district’s PVI and also subjective factors where I add or subtract points based on whether it is an open seat or a freshman race, whether there is a scandal issue, whether a divisive primary may hurt one side or the other, general candidate quality, fundraising and cash on hand, and even intangible “feel.” This methodology served pretty welll in 2006.
Here, I separate GOP-held and Dem-held seats, listing 80 GOP seats and 46 Dem seats. For each, I give the PVI, ’06 results (unless iti is an open seat), candidates, and finance numbers through the end of ’07 (and beyond in some cases). All finance figures are in thousands. Because this is long enough, I do not provide commentary, but am willing to discuss each race in the comments.
GOP Seats
1. NJ-03 (OPEN (Saxton)) Vulnerability Score: 126
PVI: 53
Democrats: J.Adler: Total Raised: 629; Cash on Hand: 591
Republicans: J.Kelly/ C.Myers/ M.Boemio/ J.Murphy: Total Raised: x; Cash on Hand: x
2. NY-25 (OPEN (Walsh)) Vulnerability Score: 126
PVI: 53
Democrats: D.Maffei: Total Raised: 518; Cash on Hand: 439
Republicans: : Total Raised: ; Cash on Hand:
3. IL-11 (OPEN (Weller)) Vulnerability Score: 121
PVI: 49
Democrats: D.Halvorson: Total Raised: 428; Cash on Hand: 394
Republicans: : Total Raised: ; Cash on Hand:
4. NM-01 (OPEN (Wilson)) Vulnerability Score: 117
PVI: 52
Democrats: R.Vigil-Giron/ M.Heinrich/ M.Grisham/ R.Pidcock/ J.Wolfe: Total Raised: x/ 465/ 116/ x/ x; Cash on Hand: x/ 277/ 96/ x/ x
Republicans: J.Carraro/ D.White: Total Raised: x/ 213; Cash on Hand: x/ 173
5. OH-15 (OPEN (Pryce)) Vulnerability Score: 113
PVI: 49
Democrats: M.Kilroy: Total Raised: 914; Cash on Hand: 710
Republicans: S.Stivers/ R.Wagner: Total Raised: 506/ 6; Cash on Hand: 444/ 15
6. AZ-01 (OPEN (Renzi)) Vulnerability Score: 113
PVI: 48
Democrats: A.Kirkpatrick/ M.Titla/ A.Affeldt/ A.Shanker/ J.Riley/ J.Brown: Total Raised: 403/ 121/ 5/ 84/ x/ x; Cash on Hand: 293/ 30/ 0/ 4/ x/ x
Republicans: S.Hay/ P.Korn: Total Raised: 170/ x; Cash on Hand: 156/ x
7. MI-07 (Walberg) Vulnerability Score: 113
PVI: 48
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 47
Democrats: M.Schauer/ S.Renier: Total Raised: 577/ 2; Cash on Hand: 501/ 0
Republicans: T.Walberg*: Total Raised: 562; Cash on Hand: 438
8. NJ-07 (OPEN (Ferguson)) Vulnerability Score: 112
PVI: 49
Democrats: L.Stender/ U.Chivukula: Total Raised: 607/ 8; Cash on Hand: 502/ 30
Republicans: K.Whitman/ L.Lance/ M.Marks/ T.Roughneen/ K.Hatfield/ V.Sordillo/ C.Venis/ M.Smith/ M.Hsing: Total Raised: 201/ x/ 94/ x/ x/ x/ x/ x; Cash on Hand: 200/ x/ 94/ x/ x/ x/ x/ x
9. WA-08 (Reichert) Vulnerability Score: 112
PVI: 52
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 49
Democrats: D.Burner: Total Raised: 874; Cash on Hand: 607
Republicans: D.Reichert*: Total Raised: 1040; Cash on Hand: 463
10. VA-11 (OPEN (Davis)) Vulnerability Score: 111
PVI: 49
Democrats: L.Byrne/ G.Connolly/ B.Denneny/ L.Alexander: Total Raised: 115/ x/ 31/ x; Cash on Hand: 104/ x/ 14/ x
Republicans: K.Fimian: Total Raised: 700; Cash on Hand: 656
11. CT-04 (Shays) Vulnerability Score: 111
PVI: 55
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 48
Democrats: J.Himes/ L.Whitnum: Total Raised: 951/ 5; Cash on Hand: 800/ 5
Republicans: C.Shays*: Total Raised: 1154; Cash on Hand: 797
12. MN-03 (OPEN (Ramstad)) Vulnerability Score: 110
PVI: 49
Democrats: T.Bonoff/ J.Hovland/ A.Madia: Total Raised: 305/ 76/ 166; Cash on Hand: 230/ 67/ 124
Republicans: E.Paulsen: Total Raised: 390; Cash on Hand: 364
13. IL-10 (Kirk) Vulnerability Score: 110
PVI: 54
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 47
Democrats: D.Seals: Total Raised: 900; Cash on Hand: 627
Republicans: M.Kirk*: Total Raised: 2303; Cash on Hand: 1790
14. NY-29 (Kuhl) Vulnerability Score: 109
PVI: 45
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 48
Democrats: E.Massa: Total Raised: 621; Cash on Hand: 415
Republicans: R.Kuhl*: Total Raised: 515; Cash on Hand: 327
15. FL-13 (Buchanan) Vulnerability Score: 109
PVI: 46
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 50
Democrats: C.Jennings/ M.LaFevers/ F.McAndrews: Total Raised: 581/ 1/ x; Cash on Hand: 343/ 0/ x
Republicans: V.Buchanan*: Total Raised: 1912; Cash on Hand: 1066
16. OH-02 (Schmidt) Vulnerability Score: 108
PVI: 37
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 49
Democrats: S.Black/ V.Wulsin: Total Raised: 415/ 547; Cash on Hand: 10/ 171
Republicans: J.Schmidt*/ T.Brinkman/ N.Bailey: Total Raised: 414/ 48/ 2; Cash on Hand: 103/ 13/ 0
17. IL-14 (OPEN (Hastert)) Vulnerability Score: 106 SPECIAL ELECTION MARCH 8
PVI: 45
Democrats: B.Foster: Total Raised: 2122; Cash on Hand: 85
Republicans: J.Oberweis: Total Raised: 2884; Cash on Hand: 545
18. OH-16 (OPEN (Regula)) Vulnerability Score: 106
PVI: 46
Democrats: J.Boccieri/ M.Cirelli: Total Raised: 467/ x; Cash on Hand: 332/ x
Republicans: K.Schuring/ M.Miller/ B.Schiffer: Total Raised: 328/ 101/ 13; Cash on Hand: 85/ 78/ 3
19. OH-01 (Chabot) Vulnerability Score: 106
PVI: 49
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 47
Democrats: S.Driehaus: Total Raised: 517; Cash on Hand: 430
Republicans: S.Chabot*: Total Raised: 1156; Cash on Hand: 1009
20. NC-08 (Hayes) Vulnerability Score: 105
PVI: 47
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 50
Democrats: L.Kissell/ M.Autry/ M.Zaccaro: Total Raised: 392/ x/ 3; Cash on Hand: 137/ x/ 1
Republicans: R.Hayes*: Total Raised: 1318; Cash on Hand: 793
21. NV-03 (Porter) Vulnerability Score: 105
PVI: 51
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 49
Democrats: R.Daskas/ E.Martin/ B.Michaels: Total Raised: 146/ 156/ x; Cash on Hand: 146/ 107/ x
Republicans: J.Porter*: Total Raised: 992; Cash on Hand: 770
22. PA-06 (Gerlach) Vulnerability Score: 105
PVI: 52
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 49
Democrats: B.Rovner/ M.Leibowitz/ B.Roggio: Total Raised: x/ 25/ x; Cash on Hand: x/ 25/ x
Republicans: J.Gerlach*: Total Raised: 1093; Cash on Hand: 500
23. MI-09 (Knollenberg) Vulnerability Score: 104
PVI: 50
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 47
Democrats: G.Peters/ R.Ross: Total Raised: 401/ x; Cash on Hand: 359/ x
Republicans: J.Knollenberg*: Total Raised: 1439; Cash on Hand: 1036
24. FL-15 (OPEN (Weldon)) Vulnerability Score: 104
PVI: 46
Democrats: N.Higgs/ S.Blythe: Total Raised: x/ 10; Cash on Hand: x/ 5
Republicans: B.Posey/ S.Mayfield/ A.Bergman: Total Raised: x/ x/ 0; Cash on Hand: x/ x/ 0
25. MO-09 (OPEN (Hulshof)) Vulnerability Score: 102
PVI: 43
Democrats: J.Baker/ L.Bode/ S.Gaw: Total Raised: 103/ x/ x; Cash on Hand: 101/ x/ x
Republicans: B.Olivo: Total Raised: x; Cash on Hand: x
26. LA-06 (OPEN (Baker)) Vulnerability Score: 101 SPECIAL ELECTION PRIMARY MARCH 8; GENERAL MAY 3
PVI: 43
Democrats: D.Cazayoux/ A.Kopplin/ M.Jackson/ J.DeCuir/ J.Delatte: Total Raised: 258/ 126/ 20/ 9/ x; Cash on Hand: 147/ 85/ 4/ 7/ x
Republicans: P.Sawyer/ W.Jenkins/ L.Calongne/ P.Cloonan: Total Raised: 113/ 80/ 181/ x; Cash on Hand: 88/ 22/ 104/ x
27. NY-26 (Reynolds) Vulnerability Score: 100
PVI: 47
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 48
Democrats: J.Powers/ J.Davis/ A.Kryzan: Total Raised: 369/ 2253/ 210; Cash on Hand: 261/ 0/ 155
Republicans: T.Reynolds*: Total Raised: 1017; Cash on Hand: 863
28. NM-02 (OPEN (Pearce)) Vulnerability Score: 100
PVI: 44
Democrats: B.McCamley/ H.Teague/ F.McKinnon/ A.Kissling: Total Raised: 272/ 409/ x/ 36; Cash on Hand: 212/ 363/ x/ 7
Republicans: T.Marquardt/ E.Greer/ E.Tinsley/ A.Dunn/ M.Newman/ G.Sowards: Total Raised: x/ x/ 305/ 304/ x/ x; Cash on Hand: x/ x/ 284/ 275/ x/ x
29. FL-24 (Feeney) Vulnerability Score: 99
PVI: 47
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 42
Democrats: S.Kozmas/ C.Curtis/ G.Bhola: Total Raised: 360/ 33/ x; Cash on Hand: 337/ 7/ x
Republicans: T.Feeney*: Total Raised: 778; Cash on Hand: 455
30. LA-04 (OPEN (McCrery)) Vulnerability Score: 99
PVI: 43
Democrats: : Total Raised: ; Cash on Hand:
Republicans: C.Gorman/ J.Fleming: Total Raised: x; Cash on Hand: x
31. IL-06 (Roskam) Vulnerability Score: 99
PVI: 47
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 49
Democrats: J.Morgenthaler: Total Raised: 105; Cash on Hand: 42
Republicans: P.Roskam*: Total Raised: 1093; Cash on Hand: 864
32. PA-15 (Dent) Vulnerability Score: 99
PVI: 52
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 45
Democrats: S.Bennett: Total Raised: 195; Cash on Hand: 94
Republicans: C.Dent*: Total Raised: 765; Cash on Hand: 535
33. DE-AL (Castle) Vulnerability Score: 99
PVI: 57
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 41
Democrats: K.Hartley-Nagle/ J.Northington/ C.Bullock: Total Raised: x/ 22/ x; Cash on Hand: x/ 6/ x
Republicans: M.Castle*: Total Raised: 736; Cash on Hand: 1527
34. NY-13 (Fossella) Vulnerability Score: 98
PVI: 51
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 43
Democrats: D.Recchia/ S.Harrison: Total Raised: 221/ 107; Cash on Hand: 206/ 83
Republicans: V.Fossella*: Total Raised: 701; Cash on Hand: 251
35. CO-04 (Musgrave) Vulnerability Score: 98
PVI: 41
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 48
Democrats: B.Markey: Total Raised: 368; Cash on Hand: 287
Republicans: M.Musgrave*: Total Raised: 1036; Cash on Hand: 760
36. FL-09 (Bilirakis) Vulnerability Score: 98
PVI: 46
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 44
Democrats: J.Dicks/ B.Mitchell/ A.DePalma/ M.Van Hoek: Total Raised: 318/ 52/ x/ 11; Cash on Hand: 307/ 142/ x/ 2
Republicans: G.Bilirakis*: Total Raised: 353; Cash on Hand: 269
37. FL-08 (Keller) Vulnerability Score: 98
PVI: 47
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 46
Democrats: C.Stuart/ M.Smith/ A.Grayson/ C.Kroehler/ Q.Van/ A.Fry: Total Raised: 311/ 368/ 55/ 53/ 3/ x; Cash on Hand: 266/ 271/ 17/ 0/ 1/ x
Republicans: R.Keller*/ B.Hering/ T.Long: Total Raised: 581/ 29/ 179; Cash on Hand: 617/ 19/ 40
38. NV-02 (Heller) Vulnerability Score: 98
PVI: 42
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 47
Democrats: J.Derby: Total Raised: 0; Cash on Hand: 0
Republicans: D.Heller*: Total Raised: 794; Cash on Hand: 664
39. WY-AL (OPEN (Cubin)) Vulnerability Score: 97
PVI: 31
Democrats: G.Trauner: Total Raised: 392; Cash on Hand: 353
Republicans: C.Lummis/ D.Zwonitzer/ B.Winney/ K.Gilchrist/ S.Nelson/ M.Gordon: Total Raised: x/ x/ 24/ x/ x/ x; Cash on Hand: x/ x/ 18/ x/ x/ x
40. VA-02 (Drake) Vulnerability Score: 97
PVI: 44
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 49
Democrats: G.Nye: Total Raised: x; Cash on Hand: x
Republicans: T.Drake*: Total Raised: 741; Cash on Hand: 426
41. AK-AL (Young) Vulnerability Score: 96
PVI: 36
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 41
Democrats: E.Berkowitz/ J.Metcalfe/ D.Benson: Total Raised: 124/ 93/ 93; Cash on Hand: 100/ 11/ 36
Republicans: D.Young*/ G.LeDoux: Total Raised: 657/ 114; Cash on Hand: 948/ 99
42. MO-06 (Graves) Vulnerability Score: 96
PVI: 45
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 37
Democrats: K.Barnes: Total Raised: 656; Cash on Hand: 578
Republicans: S.Graves*: Total Raised: 958; Cash on Hand: 766
43. CA-04 (OPEN (Doolittle)) Vulnerability Score: 96
PVI: 39
Democrats: C.Brown: Total Raised: 703; Cash on Hand: 283
Republicans: D.Ose/ R.Oller/ E.Egland/ T.Terbolizard: Total Raised: x/ x/ 141/ x; Cash on Hand: x/ x/ 79/ x
44. ID-01 (Sali) Vulnerability Score: 96
PVI: 31
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 47
Democrats: L.Grant/ R.Lewis/ W.Minnick: Total Raised: 65/ 27/ 410; Cash on Hand: 41/ 7/ 311
Republicans: B.Sali*/ M.Salisbury: Total Raised: 298/ 21; Cash on Hand: 100/ 5
45. MN-06 (Bachmann) Vulnerability Score: 96
PVI: 45
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 46
Democrats: E.Tinklenberg/ B.Olson: Total Raised: 133/ 181; Cash on Hand: 96/ 92
Republicans: M.Bachmann*: Total Raised: 1188; Cash on Hand: 796
46. VA-10 (Wolf) Vulnerability Score: 95
PVI: 45
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 42
Democrats: J.Feder/ M.Turner: Total Raised: 589/ 61; Cash on Hand: 483/ 37
Republicans: F.Wolf*/ V.McKinley: Total Raised: 740/ 16; Cash on Hand: 555/ 12
47. OH-07 (OPEN (Hobson)) Vulnerability Score: 95
PVI: 44
Democrats: B.Conner/ S.Neuhardt/ D.Woolever/ R.Wyderski/ T.Scrivens/ J.Null: Total Raised: 7/ 70/ 10/ 2/ x/ x; Cash on Hand: 6/ 39/ 0/ 1/ x/ x
Republicans: S.Austria/ R.Hood/ D.Harkins/ J.Mitchel: Total Raised: 406/ 71/ 53/ x; Cash on Hand: 230/ 39/ 3/ x
48. IA-04 (Latham) Vulnerability Score: 95
PVI: 50
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 43
Democrats: W.Meyers/ K.Meyer: Total Raised: x; Cash on Hand: x
Republicans: T.Latham*: Total Raised: 435; Cash on Hand: 412
49. CA-50 (Bilbray) Vulnerability Score: 95
PVI: 45
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 44
Democrats: N.Leibham/ J.Evans/ S.Schechter: Total Raised: 211/ x/ x; Cash on Hand: 188/ x/ x
Republicans: B.Bilbray*: Total Raised: 419; Cash on Hand: 262
50. PA-03 (English) Vulnerability Score: 94
PVI: 48
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 44
Democrats: K.Foust/ K.Dahlkemper/ T.Myers/ M.Waltner: Total Raised: 55/ 154/ 140/ 100; Cash on Hand: 25/ 116/ 76/ 66
Republicans: P.English*: Total Raised: 830; Cash on Hand: 537
51. MD-01 (OPEN (Gilchrest)) Vulnerability Score: 93
PVI: 40
Democrats: F.Kratovil: Total Raised: 242; Cash on Hand: 82
Republicans: A.Harris: Total Raised: 1098; Cash on Hand: 361
52. AZ-03 (Shadegg) Vulnerability Score: 93
PVI: 44
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 40
Democrats: B.Lord: Total Raised: 613; Cash on Hand: 503
Republicans: J.Shadegg*: Total Raised: 1021; Cash on Hand: 864
53. MS-01 (OPEN (Wicker)) Vulnerability Score: 93
PVI: 40
Democrats: S.Holland/ M.Coleman/ T.Childers/ J.Hurt/ B.Neely: Total Raised: x; Cash on Hand: x
Republicans: G.Davis/ G.McCullough/ R.Russell: Total Raised: 15/ x/ x; Cash on Hand: 15/ x/ x
54. VA-05 (Goode) Vulnerability Score: 93
PVI: 44
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 40
Democrats: B.Jackson/ T.Perriello: Total Raised: x/ 267; Cash on Hand: x/ 244
Republicans: V.Goode*: Total Raised: 165; Cash on Hand: 384
55. NJ-05 (Garrett) Vulnerability Score: 93
PVI: 46
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 44
Democrats: C.Abate/ D.Shulman: Total Raised: 154/ 192; Cash on Hand: 94/ 175
Republicans: S.Garrett*: Total Raised: 505; Cash on Hand: 352
56. MI-11 (McCotter) Vulnerability Score: 93
PVI: 49
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 44
Democrats: T.Spencer/ E.Kriewall: Total Raised: x; Cash on Hand: x
Republicans: T.McCotter*/ T.McAvoy: Total Raised: 407/ x; Cash on Hand: 373/ x
57. CA-45 (Bono Mack) Vulnerability Score: 93
PVI: 47
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 41
Democrats: J.Bornstein/ P.Clay/ D.Hunsicker: Total Raised: x; Cash on Hand: x
Republicans: M.Bono Mack*: Total Raised: 468; Cash on Hand: 219
58. PA-05 (OPEN (Peterson)) Vulnerability Score: 93
PVI: 40
Democrats: M.McCracken/ R.Vilello/ B.Cahir: Total Raised: x; Cash on Hand: x
Republicans: J.Stroup/ C.Exarchos/ M.Shaner/ L.Radkowski/ J.Stroehmann/ G.Thompson/ D.Walker/ J.Krupa/ K.Richardson: Total Raised: x; Cash on Hand: x
59. OH-14 (LaTourette) Vulnerability Score: 91
PVI: 48
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 40
Democrats: B.O’Neill/ D.Blanchard/ J.Greene: Total Raised: 210/ x/ x; Cash on Hand: 94/ x/ x
Republicans: S.LaTourette*: Total Raised: 708; Cash on Hand: 570
60. PA-18 (Murphy) Vulnerability Score: 91
PVI: 48
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 42
Democrats: B.Hafer/ W.Dudding/ S.O’Donnell/ B.Wall: Total Raised: 106/ x/ 260/ 36; Cash on Hand: 42/ x/ 204/ 16
Republicans: T.Murphy*: Total Raised: 600; Cash on Hand: 663
61. FL-25 (M. Diaz-Balart) Vulnerability Score: 91
PVI: 46
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 42
Democrats: J.Garcia: Total Raised: x; Cash on Hand: x
Republicans: M.Diaz-Balart*: Total Raised: 388; Cash on Hand: 466
62. TX-10 (McCaul) Vulnerability Score: 91
PVI: 37
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 43
Democrats: L.Doherty/ D.Grant: Total Raised: 448/ 183; Cash on Hand: 345/ 165
Republicans: M.McCaul*: Total Raised: 527; Cash on Hand: 433
63. CA-52 (OPEN (Hunter)) Vulnerability Score: 91
PVI: 41
Democrats: M.Lumpkin/ J.Hester/ V.Butcher: Total Raised: 78/ 8/ 10; Cash on Hand: 44/ 1/ 8
Republicans: D.Hunter Jr./ B.Jones/ K.King/ B.Watkins: Total Raised: 224/ 132/ 145/ 222; Cash on Hand: 116/ 82/ 90/ 58
64. AL-02 (OPEN (Everett)) Vulnerability Score: 90
PVI: 37
Democrats: B.Bright/ T.Spicer/ C.Crawley: Total Raised: x; Cash on Hand: x
Republicans: D.Grimes/ J.Love/ H.Smith/ C.Schmidtke: Total Raised: x/ 370/ 18/ x; Cash on Hand: x/ 370/ 0/ x
65. WV-02 (Capito) Vulnerability Score: 90
PVI: 45
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 43
Democrats: A.Barth/ T.Cooper/ R.Robb: Total Raised: x; Cash on Hand: x
Republicans: S.Capito*: Total Raised: 732; Cash on Hand: 644
66. IL-13 (Biggert) Vulnerability Score: 90
PVI: 45
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 42
Democrats: S.Harper: Total Raised: 134; Cash on Hand: 36
Republicans: J.Biggert*: Total Raised: 532; Cash on Hand: 458
67. OH-12 (Tiberi) Vulnerability Score: 90
PVI: 49
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 42
Democrats: D.Robinson/ A.Dagres/ R.Goodwin: Total Raised: 11/ x/ 9; Cash on Hand: 11/ x/ 9
Republicans: P.Tiberi*: Total Raised: 1011; Cash on Hand: 643
68. IN-03 (Souder) Vulnerability Score: 89
PVI: 34
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 46
Democrats: M.Montagano: Total Raised: 205; Cash on Hand: 181
Republicans: M.Souder*/ S.Wise: Total Raised: 316/ x; Cash on Hand: 211/ x
69. MN-02 (Kline) Vulnerability Score: 89
PVI: 47
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 42
Democrats: S.Sarvi/ D.Powers: Total Raised: 54/ 0; Cash on Hand: 32/ 0
Republicans: J.Kline*: Total Raised: 645; Cash on Hand: 395
70. CA-26 (Dreier) Vulnerability Score: 88
PVI: 46
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 40
Democrats: R.Warner/ H.Hillsman: Total Raised: 380/ 124; Cash on Hand: 240/ 11
Republicans: D.Dreier*: Total Raised: 599; Cash on Hand: 1965
71. FL-21 (L. Diaz-Balart) Vulnerability Score: 88
PVI: 44
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 41
Democrats: R.Martinez/ R.Allbritton: Total Raised: x; Cash on Hand: x
Republicans: L.Diaz-Balart*/ D.Santoro: Total Raised: 456/ x; Cash on Hand: 904/ x
72. KY-02 (OPEN (Lewis)) Vulnerability Score: 87
PVI: 37
Democrats: D.Boswell/ R.Haire: Total Raised: x; Cash on Hand: x
Republicans: B.Guthrie: Total Raised: x; Cash on Hand: x
73. CA-46 (Rohrabacher) Vulnerability Score: 87
PVI: 44
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 39
Democrats: D.Cook/ S.Blount/ D.Lash: Total Raised: x/ 0/ x; Cash on Hand: x/ 0/ x
Republicans: D.Rohrabacher*: Total Raised: 193; Cash on Hand: 343
74. OH-03 (Turner) Vulnerability Score: 87
PVI: 47
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 41
Democrats: J.Mitakides/ C.Sanders/ D.Esrati: Total Raised: x/ 5/ x; Cash on Hand: x/ 0/ x
Republicans: M.Turner*: Total Raised: 742; Cash on Hand: 484
75. TX-07 (Culberson) Vulnerability Score: 85
PVI: 34
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 40
Democrats: M.Skelly: Total Raised: 464; Cash on Hand: 403
Republicans: J.Culberson*: Total Raised: 322; Cash on Hand: 82
76. AL-03 (Rogers) Vulnerability Score: 83
PVI: 46
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 39
Democrats: G.Pierce/ J.Segall: Total Raised: x; Cash on Hand: x
Republicans: M.Rogers*: Total Raised: 606; Cash on Hand: 952
77. NJ-04 (Smith) Vulnerability Score: 82
PVI: 49
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 33
Democrats: J.Zeitz/ A.Vazquez: Total Raised: 97/ x; Cash on Hand: 83/ x
Republicans: C.Smith*: Total Raised: 269; Cash on Hand: 405
78. IL-16 (Manzullo) Vulnerability Score: 81
PVI: 46
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 33
Democrats: R.Abboud: Total Raised: 116; Cash on Hand: 38
Republicans: D.Manzullo*: Total Raised: 588; Cash on Hand: 391
79. IN-06 (Pence) Vulnerability Score: 80
PVI: 39
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 40
Democrats: B.Welsh: Total Raised: 13; Cash on Hand: 6
Republicans: M.Pence*: Total Raised: 812; Cash on Hand: 663
80. MD-06 (Bartlett) Vulnerability Score: 80
PVI: 37
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 40
Democrats: J.Dougherty: Total Raised: 19; Cash on Hand: 1
Republicans: R.Bartlett*: Total Raised: 114; Cash on Hand: 280
Dem Seats
1. TX-22 (Lampson) Vulnerability Score: 118
PVI: 35
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 55
Democrats: N.Lampson*: Total Raised: 1046; Cash on Hand: 739
Republicans: S.Sekula-Gibbs/ D.Hrbacek/ J.Manlove/ B.Talton/ J.Squier/ C.Dunbar/ K.Bazzy/ B.Klock/ P.Olson/ R.Rowley: Total Raised: 1065/ 266/ 283/ 225/ 177/ 9/ 21/ 37/ 535/ 7; Cash on Hand: 206/ 46/ 166/ 36/ 92/ 1/ 1/ 0/ 90/ 1
2. GA-08 (Marshall) Vulnerability Score: 115
PVI: 42
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 51
Democrats: J.Marshall*/ J.Ellis/ R.Nowak: Total Raised: 724/ x/ 9; Cash on Hand: 900/ x/ 7
Republicans: R.Goddard: Total Raised: 437; Cash on Hand: 348
3. KS-02 (Boyda) Vulnerability Score: 112
PVI: 43
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 52
Democrats: N.Boyda*: Total Raised: 766; Cash on Hand: 654
Republicans: J.Ryun/ L.Jenkins: Total Raised: 980/ 513; Cash on Hand: 365/ 416
4. OR-05 (OPEN (Hooley)) Vulnerability Score: 111
PVI: 51
Democrats: Kurt Schrader : Total Raised: x; Cash on Hand: x
Republicans: M.Erickson: Total Raised: 176; Cash on Hand: 131
5. PA-10 (Carney) Vulnerability Score: 111
PVI: 42
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 53
Democrats: C.Carney*: Total Raised: 1000; Cash on Hand: 763
Republicans: C.Hackett/ D.Meuser/ D.Haire: Total Raised: 471/ 652/ 0; Cash on Hand: 387/ 398/ 0
6. WI-08 (Kagen) Vulnerability Score: 110
PVI: 46
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 51
Democrats: S.Kagen*: Total Raised: 844; Cash on Hand: 665
Republicans: J.Gard/ F.Lasee: Total Raised: 360/ x; Cash on Hand: 285/ x
7. IN-09 (Hill) Vulnerability Score: 110
PVI: 43
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 52
Democrats: B.Hill*/ G.Clearwater/ J.Bottorff/ L.Terry: Total Raised: 1136/ 4/ x/ x; Cash on Hand: 862/ 3/ x/ x
Republicans: M.Sodrel: Total Raised: x; Cash on Hand: x
8. NY-20 (Gillibrand) Vulnerability Score: 108
PVI: 47
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 53
Democrats: K.Gillibrand*/ M.Guller: Total Raised: 2561/ x; Cash on Hand: 2042/ x
Republicans: S.Treadwell/ M.Rocque/ J.Wallace: Total Raised: 1238/ 172/ 60; Cash on Hand: 755/ 50/ 4
9. PA-04 () Vulnerability Score: 107
PVI: 47
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 52
Democrats: J.Altmire*: Total Raised: 1133; Cash on Hand: 911
Republicans: M.Hart: Total Raised: 386; Cash on Hand: 332
10. NH-01 (Shea-Porter) Vulnerability Score: 107
PVI: 50
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 52
Democrats: C.Shea-Porter*: Total Raised: 531; Cash on Hand: 466
Republicans: J.Bradley/ J.Stephen: Total Raised: 423/ 232; Cash on Hand: 423/ 203
11. AZ-05 (Mitchell) Vulnerability Score: 106
PVI: 46
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 53
Democrats: H.Mitchell*: Total Raised: 1040; Cash on Hand: 869
Republicans: D.Schweikert/ J.Ogsbury/ M.Anderson/ J.Hatch-Miller/ L.Knaperek: Total Raised: 506/ 387/ x/ x/ 51; Cash on Hand: 412/ 349/ x/ x/ 27
12. CA-11 (McNerney) Vulnerability Score: 106
PVI: 47
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 53
Democrats: J.McNerney*: Total Raised: 1314; Cash on Hand: 925
Republicans: D.Andal: Total Raised: 535; Cash on Hand: 471
13. FL-16 (Mahoney) Vulnerability Score: 105
PVI: 48
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 51
Democrats: T.Mahoney*: Total Raised: 1750; Cash on Hand: 1453
Republicans: G.Harrell/ T.Rooney/ H.Valeche/ M.Mett/ R.Siedlecki: Total Raised: 412/ 554/ 427/ x/ x; Cash on Hand: 271/ 397/ 301/ x/ x
14. NC-11 (Shuler) Vulnerability Score: 105
PVI: 43
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 54
Democrats: H.Shuler*: Total Raised: 795; Cash on Hand: 626
Republicans: J.Armor/ S.Campbell/ C.Mumpower: Total Raised: x/ 152/ 3; Cash on Hand: x/ 73/ 1
15. NY-19 (Hall) Vulnerability Score: 104
PVI: 49
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 51
Democrats: J.Hall*: Total Raised: 1344; Cash on Hand: 1039
Republicans: G.Oros/ K.Lalor: Total Raised: x/ 31; Cash on Hand: x/ 26
16. KY-03 (Yarmuth) Vulnerability Score: 103
PVI: 52
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 52
Democrats: J.Yarmuth*: Total Raised: 804; Cash on Hand: 659
Republicans: A.Northup/ C.Everett / D.Devore: Total Raised: 34/ x/ x; Cash on Hand: 6/ x/ x
17. MN-01 (Walz) Vulnerability Score: 103
PVI: 49
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 53
Democrats: T.Walz*: Total Raised: 1248; Cash on Hand: 793
Republicans: D.Day/ R.Demmer/ B.Davis: Total Raised: 210/ 206/ 161; Cash on Hand: 96/ 42/ 85
18. TX-17 (Edwards) Vulnerability Score: 100
PVI: 32
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 59
Democrats: C.Edwards*: Total Raised: 1278; Cash on Hand: 1051
Republicans: R.Curnock: Total Raised: x; Cash on Hand: x
19. AZ-08 (Giffords) Vulnerability Score: 100
PVI: 49
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 56
Democrats: G.Giffords*: Total Raised: 1439; Cash on Hand: 1317
Republicans: T.Bee: Total Raised: 286; Cash on Hand: 161
20. IL-08 (Bean) Vulnerability Score: 100
PVI: 45
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 54
Democrats: M.Bean*: Total Raised: 1860; Cash on Hand: 1260
Republicans: S.Greenberg: Total Raised: 410; Cash on Hand: 62
21. TX-23 (Rodriguez) Vulnerability Score: 99
PVI: 46
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 57
Democrats: C.Rodriguez*: Total Raised: 1303; Cash on Hand: 661
Republicans: F.Canseco/ L.Larson: Total Raised: 850/ 180; Cash on Hand: 207/ 0
22. PA-08 (Murphy) Vulnerability Score: 99
PVI: 53
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 50
Democrats: P.Murphy*: Total Raised: 1585; Cash on Hand: 1172
Republicans: T.Mannion/ J.Montone: Total Raised: x; Cash on Hand: x
23. IN-02 (Donnelley) Vulnerability Score: 97
PVI: 46
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 54
Democrats: J.Donnelly*: Total Raised: 1108; Cash on Hand: 713
Republicans: L.Puckett/ J.Frame/ J.Roush/ T.Zirkle: Total Raised: x; Cash on Hand: x
24. NH-02 (Hodes) Vulnerability Score: 97
PVI: 53
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 54
Democrats: P.Hodes*: Total Raised: 1041; Cash on Hand: 695
Republicans: B.Clegg/ J.Horn/ J.Steiner: Total Raised: x/ x/ 11; Cash on Hand: x/ x/ 9
25. GA-12 (Barrow) Vulnerability Score: 96
PVI: 52
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 50
Democrats: J.Barrow*: Total Raised: 1138; Cash on Hand: 1139
Republicans: K.Bogans/ C.Edenfield/ R.McKinney/ J.Stone: Total Raised: x/ 14/ x/ 37; Cash on Hand: x/ 2/ x/ 37
26. CT-05 (Murphy) Vulnerability Score: 96
PVI: 54
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 56
Democrats: C.Murphy*: Total Raised: 1391; Cash on Hand: 1210
Republicans: D.Cappiello/ T.Nania: Total Raised: 400/ x; Cash on Hand: 238/
27. IN-08 (Ellsworth) Vulnerability Score: 95
PVI: 41
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 61
Democrats: B.Ellsworth*: Total Raised: 762; Cash on Hand: 576
Republicans: G.Goode: Total Raised: 79; Cash on Hand: 45
28. OH-18 (Space) Vulnerability Score: 94
PVI: 44
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 62
Democrats: Z.Space*/ M.Pitrone: Total Raised: 1225/ x; Cash on Hand: 811/ x
Republicans: F.Dailey/ J.Moll/ P.Phillips/ B.Bromberg: Total Raised: 111/ 116/ 80/ x; Cash on Hand: 48/ 50/ 20/ x
29. CT-02 (Courtney) Vulnerability Score: 94
PVI: 58
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 50
Democrats: J.Courtney*: Total Raised: 1193; Cash on Hand: 1000
Republicans: S.Sullivan: Total Raised: 187; Cash on Hand: 127
30. NM-03 (OPEN (T. Udall)) Vulnerability Score: 94
PVI: 56
Democrats: B.Lujan/ D.Wiviott/ H.Montoya/ R.Martin/ B.Shendo/ J.Adams: Total Raised: 104/ 346/ 8/ x/ x/ 31; Cash on Hand: 92/ 299/ 5/ x/ x/ 15
Republicans: M.Gonzales/ D.East: Total Raised: x; Cash on Hand: x
31. IA-02 (Loebsack) Vulnerability Score: 94
PVI: 57
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 51
Democrats: D.Loebsack*: Total Raised: 491; Cash on Hand: 380
Republicans: L.Harder/ M.Miller-Meeks/ P.Teahen: Total Raised: 9/ 41/ x; Cash on Hand: 5/ 41/ x
32. IA-03 (Boswell) Vulnerability Score: 93
PVI: 51
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 53
Democrats: L.Boswell*/ E.Fallon: Total Raised: 722/ x; Cash on Hand: 702/ x
Republicans: : Total Raised: ; Cash on Hand:
33. ME-01 (OPEN (Allen)) Vulnerability Score: 92
PVI: 56
Democrats: C.Pingree/ M.Brennan/ M.Lawrence/ E.Strimling/ A.Cote/ S.Meister: Total Raised: 784/ 152/ 326/ 337/ 305/ 46; Cash on Hand: 443/ 82/ 189/ 196/ 192/ 40
Republicans: C.Summers/ D.Scontras: Total Raised: 117/ 198; Cash on Hand: 71/ 26
34. ND-AL (Pomeroy) Vulnerability Score: 92
PVI: 37
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 66
Democrats: E.Pomeroy*: Total Raised: 1070; Cash on Hand: 1131
Republicans: D.Sand: Total Raised: 256; Cash on Hand: 95
35. FL-22 (Klein) Vulnerability Score: 92
PVI: 54
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 52
Democrats: R.Klein*/ R.Rennelsen: Total Raised: 2295/ x; Cash on Hand: 1803/ x
Republicans: A.West/ M.Thomas: Total Raised: 43/ x; Cash on Hand: 31/ x
36. PA-07 (Sestak) Vulnerability Score: 92
PVI: 54
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 56
Democrats: J.Sestak*: Total Raised: x; Cash on Hand: x
Republicans: C.Williams: Total Raised: x; Cash on Hand: x
37. IN-07 (OPEN (Carson)) Vulnerability Score: 91 SPECIAL ELECTION MARCH 11
PVI: 59
Democrats: A.Carson: Total Raised: x; Cash on Hand: x
Republicans: J.Elrod: Total Raised: 4; Cash on Hand: 4
38. NY-24 (Arcuri) Vulnerability Score: 90
PVI: 49
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 55
Democrats: M.Arcuri*: Total Raised: 760; Cash on Hand: 521
Republicans: Total Raised: x; Cash on Hand: x
39. KY-06 (Chandler) Vulnerability Score: 90
PVI: 43
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 60
Democrats: B.Chandler*: Total Raised: 594; Cash on Hand: 1025
Republicans: T.McCurdy/ J.Larson: Total Raised: x; Cash on Hand: x
40. CO-03 (Salazar) Vulnerability Score: 89
PVI: 44
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 62
Democrats: J.Salazar*: Total Raised: 784; Cash on Hand: 533
Republicans: W.Wolf: Total Raised: x; Cash on Hand: x
41. OH-06 (Wilson) Vulnerability Score: 89
PVI: 50
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 62
Democrats: C.Wilson*: Total Raised: 395; Cash on Hand: 295
Republicans: R.Stobbs: Total Raised: x; Cash on Hand: x
42. KS-03 (Moore) Vulnerability Score: 88
PVI: 46
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 65
Democrats: D.Moore*: Total Raised: 795; Cash on Hand: 790
Republicans: N.Jordan: Total Raised: 222; Cash on Hand: 177
43. NY-21 (OPEN (McNulty)) Vulnerability Score: 87
PVI: 59
Democrats: P.Steck/ T.Brooks: Total Raised: x; Cash on Hand:
Republicans: : Total Raised: ; Cash on Hand:
44. CO-07 (Perlmutter) Vulnerability Score: 87
PVI: 52
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 57
Democrats: E.Perlmutter*: Total Raised: 934; Cash on Hand: 583
Republicans: : Total Raised: ; Cash on Hand:
45. IA-01 (Braley) Vulnerability Score: 86
PVI: 55
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 56
Democrats: B.Braley*: Total Raised: 493; Cash on Hand: 404
Republicans: : Total Raised: ; Cash on Hand:
46. SD-AL (Herseth Sandlin) Vulnerability Score: 83
PVI: 40
2006 Dem Share of 2 Party Vote: 70
Democrats: S.Herseth Sandlin*: Total Raised: 660; Cash on Hand: 650
Republicans: C.Lien: Total Raised: 119; Cash on Hand: 110
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