Tag: Las Vegas

3:18am (David): Back to Eastern time here. (Nice try, Jeff.) I think we’ve done absolutely all we can do. I don’t think we’re going to see any more votes come in tonight, so it’s time for a ganja break for the SSP crew. Tune in tomorrow!

2:02am: All of Dane County is reporting, having shown a 4.61% swing away from Prosser and turnout at 2.77x the first round. (This includes Middleton…which quite nicely gave KloJo more than a 1,000 vote margin).

1:48am: (jeffmd here. CENTRAL TIME WILL DESTROY YOU!) Here’s where we’re at: there are, per the AP, 34 precincts outstanding.  However, Dunn County has all precincts reporting on it website, and it helps KloJo close to a 356 vote deficit.  Crawford and Dane counties are completed reported.

So precinct wise, here’s what’s left:

6 in Ashland

1 in Jefferson

1 in Juneau

12 in Milwaukee

8 in Sauk

1 in Taylor

Jefferson and Taylor are telling us that their last precincts won’t be reporting until tomorrow.

Lake Mills town in Jefferson County gave Prosser 56.1% in the first round, and we’ve seen a 9.32% swing away from him tonight.

Maplehurst in Taylor County gave Prosser 42.9% of the vote in the first round, and we’ve seen a 5.4% swing towards him tonight.  Overall, I’m guessing that Jefferson and Taylor will overall be about a wash.  All the other counties listed favored KloJo tonight.

2:40am: My chart’s got more significant digits than Picasso got paint!

2:24am: New chart – KloJo won these counties by 62-38 so far tonight:

2:21am (DavidNYC): Prosser’s lead down to 585 votes. 34 precincts left.

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Fresh new thread. (How did I get here?)

Results:

Wisconsin: AP | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

Chicago: AP

SC: SC SEC

Nevada: Clark County

2:02am: 3,575 of 3,630 precincts, Klop behind 726,325 to 728,203. And sorry for any confusion about the timestamps – Jeff insisted on using something called “Central” time, but I’m here to restore Eastern time to its rightful glory.

1:45am: 7 more precincts just came in, and Kloppenburg is now behind 1,898 votes.

1:40am: It’s so close that I’m not sure this is meaningful, but our model now predicts a KloJo win by 50.04% to 49.96%.

1:31am: Per that table just below, I count about 97 outstanding precincts, in counties that Kloppenburg has won by an average of 60% so far tonight.

1:24am: DavidNYC here – taking over the con from Jeff, who has done heroic work tonight. Not counting absentees, etc., this is where I’m seeing outstanding precincts:

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My nails now are quite bloody.

Results:

Wisconsin: AP | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

Chicago: AP

SC: SC SEC

Nevada: Clark County

12:05am: Move along, move along, like I know you do.

12:05am: Prosser is now up by about 2,200 votes.  With most of the precincts in Dem-leaning territory…but these precincts have to be substantive, and not empty, as we’ve seen plenty tonight.

12:01am: Eau Claire County may not give us as much of a boost as expected – most of the city of Eau Claire is reporting, with 11 of the 21 outstanding being from the city.

11:56pm: Looking at Marathon County, there could be good news left for KloJo – most of the outstanding precincts appear to be in the City of Wausau, which should help her recover her lead, or at least be empty (which is better than the 54-46 margin Prosser has there thus far).

11:53pm: Bad advance news from Racine County, which based on the County website is fully reporting and has KloJo losing by 6K votes, not 3k.  This moves the needle to 4.90%.

11:46pm: Waukesha is now entirely reporting, with the last 68 precincts being all empty.  The needle stands at 4.98% away from Prosser…or a 182 vote Prosser lead when all is said and done.

11:42pm: The Las Vegas Mayoral runoff spot has been called for Chris G, evidently.

11:40pm: We’re at 94.6%. It comes down to something as simple as this: how much of Waukesha and Ozaukee are actually reporting? Just think, if Waukesha is indeed all reporting, that brings us to a final projected margin of 175 votes for Prosser.

11:33pm: FUCK. A bunch of Dane precincts just reported, with no votes. This likely owes to the various tendrils of the city of Madison that have their own precincts…but no residents.  This moves the needle to 3.87%…count me pessimistic.

11:26pm: Waupaca County just reported in bulk, showing a 7% swing to KloJo as has been characteristic of the Fox Valley/northeastern Wisconsin. The needle’s at 4.45%…where’s still just a little bit short of where we need to be.

11:23pm: I’ve been neglecting Las Vegas…where the Clark County is not showing any results for me.  But, Carolyn Goodman is out in front, with Chris G and Larry Brown separated by 30 votes!

11:15pm: 90.4% reporting now, and KloJo is clinging to a 4K vote lead.  The wildcard is still the Milwaukee burbs, which are lagging at 65% reporting…but who knows what’s actually reported.

11:11pm: Looking at FDL County, KloJo’s swings in the Fox Valley continue to be apparent: after having given Prosser 72% in the first round, FDL only gave him 61% this time around….a big improvement.

11:07pm: Before Professor Jeff gets into precincting procedures, it could be relevant that Wisconsin draws election precincts (which it refers to as “wards”), and that many of these precincts left could be empty.  I’ll also note that very few MKE precincts are empty…and that the empty ones Milwaukee precincts are actually part of Waukesha (2) and Ozaukee (1).

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The sucker in me likes being optimistic.

Results:

Wisconsin: AP | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

Chicago: AP

SC: SC SEC

Nevada: Clark County

11:06pm: Keep it moving, folks.

11:01pm: This will come down to the Milwaukee suburbs…and depending on how many precincts are actually counted. Based on this last set, the swing away from Prosser is 4.9%….which is getting VERY close to what we need.  Turnout in the Dem strongholds isn’t particularly outstanding – 2.2x in MKE and 3.3x in Madison, slightly behind the 3.6x statewide.

10:52pm: A big batch of Milwaukee precincts…with votes, and a swing to KloJo, no less. This last batch brings the swing in MKE county from 9.28 to 11.78%. The swing away from Prosser is now 4.66%…which is getting close to the neighborhood of what is needed.

10:47pm: A huge batch of MKE suburban precincts….but no more votes.  Waukesha jumped from 52 to 119 and Ozaukee from 16 to 26.  This change alone brings the swing away from Prosser to 3.87%.

10:38pm: No progress yet from the MKE suburbs, but a cursory review of county websites would suggest that at least half are in and not the 27% reported.  Also interesting is that nothing has reported yet from Fond du Lac County, which could be a good source of swing toward KloJo.  The rest of the Fox Valley + Green Bay (defined to be Outagamie, Winnebago, Calumet, and Brown counties) has swung 7.3% away from Prosser.

10:32pm: 68% in now, and Prosser is about 2.27% underperforming his primary performance (which is calculated using a weighted average).  Turnout differentials are not particularly helping us – across the state, it’s about 3.9x the primary total, but only 2.2x in Milwaukee and 3.1x in Madison. (However, this includes the absurd Waukesha/Ozaukee/Washington results [Ozaushingsha County?], where turnout based on these numbers is 8.4x the primary).

10:24pm: KloJo is back in the lead, thanks to a Madison vote dump.  We’re still looking for some insight into the MKE suburban numbers, which seems overly inflated.

10:21pm: A similar effect is being seen in Washington County, where the current precinct numbers suggesting 73% of the population voting.

10:17pm: Nominally, the MKE suburbs are only 27% reporting. …but, the numbers right now would suggest 311K votes from Waukesha, or 80% of the total population. It would also suggest 60K votes from Ozaukee – 71% of the total population.  This should signal some overestimating of the effect of the Milwaukee burbs.

10:16pm: That last update wasn’t great for KloJo, who’s now 10,000 down; Prosser is only 2.27% underperforming now.

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Let’s keep going…

Results:

Wisconsin: AP | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

Chicago: AP

SC: SC SEC

Nevada: Clark County

10:13pm: Thread trois.

10:10pm: A few more votes from Madison have trickled in, bringing KloJo back into the lead. However, the swing is still only 2.84%, less than what we need.

10:01pm: At the halfway mark now, and Prosser is now underperforming by about 3.5%. That number needs to clear 5% for KloJo to win.  The Milwaukee burbs, however, are still the laggards here, at 23% reporting.  However, the number of votes in Waukesha seems a little out of wack, as taking them at face value suggest that turnout is 8 times higher today than in the primary.

9:56pm: With 65% reporting for Milwaukee County Exec, Chris Abele is leading 61-39.  I think we can chalk this one up for Team Blue.

9:48pm: With 42% reporting now, Prosser’s assembled a 52-48 lead, or 19,000 votes.  “Outstate” – if there is one – is reporting and not being the friendliest to KloJo. Potential areas of improvement include the college towns in La Crosse/Eau Claire/Stevens Point and Madison. Despite their repugnant redness, the Milwaukee burbs are swinging 8.36% towards KloJo – more than what’s needed.

9:39pm: Back to Chicago for a second, a few incumbents lost tonight: Bernie Stone and John Rice for sure, and possibly Fredrenna Lyle in the 6th.  The Republicans might be going 0-for-50, with both would be GOPers losing, by 260 votes in the 41st and by 31 votes in the 45th. [And Sharon Denise Dixon in the 24th. No love for Rhymefest though, who loses to incumbent Wilie Cochran.]

9:29pm: Things continue to move slightly in KloJo’s favor, with Prosser doing 3.2% worse than before.  Hopefully, the trend continues.  Prosser is underperforming in all areas except Dane County – which is explained by the fact that Madison has yet to report.

9:22pm: Prosser’s doing 2.4% worse than in the primary. However, the MKE suburbs’s are only 8%…which leaves plenty of room for him to pad his lead, sadly.

9:17pm: Chris Abele continues to crush for MKE County Exec, now 61-39 with 28% in.

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It’s a progressive party.

Results:

Wisconsin: AP | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

Chicago: AP

SC: SC SEC

Nevada: Clark County

9:15pm: Follow the party here.

9:10pm: More of Milwaukee’s reported now, which is enough improvement such that Prosser’s now 1.5% below his primary performance.  KloJo will still need more to win this though.

9:06pm: According to Journal-Sentinel, Chris Abele now has a 60-40 lead over Jeff Stone with 10% reporting. Hopefully, this means we can expect some swings towards KloJo in Milwaukee County.

9:01pm: More results now – 12% in. Prosser’s underperforming everywhere…except Milwaukee County, Dane County, and the not contiguous “College Towns”, comprised of Eau Claire, La Crosse, and Portage counties.  Hopefully, this will change.

8:56pm: Clarendon County has reported in South Carolina, and the Dem is now leading 52-47.

8:45pm: More of Wisconsin in now, and Prosser is now slightly underperforming (-0.23%). KloJo has a 202-vote lead, but the disgustingly Republican Milwaukee burbs haven’t reported just yet. (Keep in mind, Waukesha + Ozaukee + Washington gave Bush a larger margin than Milwaukee gave Kerry).

8:40pm: With our first Milwaukee County precincts, Jeff Stone is up by 1%. Prosser at par with his primary performance now (+0.06%).

8:34pm: Kenosha County is going 64-36 for Prosser, but it’s also quite heavily polarized. With the last dump, Prosser is doing 1% better than in the primary, about 6% over what he needs overall.

8:30pm: 2.5% reporting now, with Prosser doing about 2% better than in the primary (assuming uniform counties). It’s still early – this is plenty likely to change.  We need Prosser to do about 5% worse for KloJo to win.

8:19pm: Ten precincts in now (does this mean I have to stop using just my fingers to count?). Prosser’s doing about 5% better than he did in the primary, but turnout in Dane County is 2x.

8:13pm: Hey, one precinct in Dane County (Madison)!  Kloppenburg’s at 60%.  Turnout in this one precinct is 2.5x what the average Dane County precinct was in the primary. (The flipside is that Prosser is doing 8.6% better in this one precinct than he did throughout Dane County in the first round.)

8:02pm: In South Carolina, heavily Dem HD-64 currently has a Republican lead of 5 votes, but only one of two counties has reported. (And I’m guessing not the Dem one, either.)

7:51pm: Checking out these Chicago results real quick – Rahm’s picks aren’t doing too well in the 24th and 25th wards.  Crusty old jackass Bernard Stone is losing quite handily in the 50th, and Che “Rhymefest” Smith (co-writer of Kanye West’s “Jesus Walks”) is holding incumbent Willie Cochran to 53% in the 20th.

Once again, Central Time shall prevail!

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And so it is, 15 minutes to takeoff.

On the docket:

• The marquee event, the Wisconsin Supreme Court race between the conservative-leaning incumbent David Prosser and Dem-leaning JoAnne Kloppenburg.
  

• Milwaukee County Executive, which Scott Walker kindly left open between Walker crony Jeff Stone and  Dem Chris Abele.
  

• The first test of Mayor Emanuel’s clout, with numerous City Council runoffs in Chicago, which Rahm hasn’t been shy to wade in.
  

• Various local offices throughout Las Vegas and Clark County.

Results:

Wisconsin: AP | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

Chicago: AP

SC: SC SEC

Nevada: Clark County

(Also at Nevada Progressive)

[Note: This year, we will be voting in municipal elections in cities throughout Clark County. Las Vegas will be voting for Mayor (Oscar Goodman is termed out) and three city council seats. Henderson and North Las Vegas will also be voting for three city council seats each. And all cities will also be voting for local judges. Clark County Elections only occur in even numbered years.

Carolyn Goodman is the wife of outgoing Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman, the founder of the prestigious private Meadows School, and a registered Nonpartisan. Victor Chaltiel is the Republican being backed by casino magnate Sheldon Adelson. Larry Brown and Chris Giunchigliani are both Democrats and incumbent Clark County Commissioners.]

What do you think when you see this?

And this? (

(Yay! Brown’s new ad is now on YouTube!)

And what do you think when you see this?

And this?

So what did you get out of those? That Larry Brown and Chris Giunchigliani are serious about getting Las Vegas out of the economic doldrums and into a brighter future? That Brown and/or Chris G care about regular Las Vegans? That they’re “just like us”?

Now take a look at this.

What do you see here? “V for Victory”? “V for Vendetta”? Apparently, Victor Chaltiel for Las Vegas. So I guess that’s what Sheldon Adelson’s billions buy you these days?

Now take a look at this.

What did you get out of this? That we love Oscar? That Oscar has to “say goodbye”? Who’s “good enough” to follow up his great act? It seems like Carolyn Goodman is taking a different approach in her ads, engaging with some playful nostalgia instead of the typical promises to do this or that.

Sadly, many voters’ first impressions of the candidates will likely come from these TV ads. Do they convey the messages these candidates want to send? Or might voters eventually hear a different tune from what everyone else is saying away from commercial time?

I can definitely see different strategies at play with these various ads. Larry Brown and Chris G want to be taken seriously as practical problem solvers, and that’s why they play up the general policy outlines and mix them up with “feel good” promises. Victor Chaltiel is trying to play the “businessman outsider” card a la Arnold Schwarzenegger v.2003, and it seems he’s just trying to take advantage of whatever “tea party” fervor Sharron Angle left over with a vague “elect him, not a ‘politician'” message.

And Carolyn Goodman? Well, what else can I say about that ad? It’s original! 😉

This has not been a good past 48 hours for National Republican Campaign Committee chair Pete Sessions. In fact the past two days have been horrible. Perhaps Sessions should fly out to Vegas for one of his risque fundraisers . Badump Tish

First The earmarks flap

Then the recruiting flap where he fails to get top prospect John McKinley to take on Jim Himes (CT-04).

And now we are finding out there are all kinds of holes in his Young Guns Project . Well if you call it Young Guns – not sure that some of his catches count as “Young”.

Keep up the good work Pete and you might be left with just the wignuttiest of the wignuttery in Congress. No complaints here. But the NRCC might want to second guess its decision to put you in charge. Well you are probably taking the rest of the boys to Vegas for another Leadership PAC fundraiser so I’m sure they are just looking forward to a couple of lap dances and craps.

1. Strike One

According to Pete

earmarks have become “a symbol of a broken Washington to the American people

So it’s probably no surprise that He doesn’t tell us on his website that in 2008 he steered 1.6 million to a company doing some research on a blimp. The company has no experience in government contracts, no experience in building airships or blimps and it just by the way employed a former Sessions staffer as a lobbyist. And the best part that former staffer turned lobbyist has a criminal record.

Oh and by the way this father son team (The Fergusons) that own this company – contributed $5,000 to Sessions Leadership Pac in 2007.

Wonder if they were at the Vegas Risque fundraiser.

And not only was this former staffer Plesha convicted on a gun charge but he also has a criminal record from some FEC violations related to lying to investigators about creating some false mailers.

Oh and see Pete here while Jeff Flake talks about earmarks today

2. Strike Two

Sessions announced on Tuesday

There are people proactively coming to us. We are doing far less recruiting and more catching.”

That’s a day before

“Republicans’ hopes of ousting freshman Democrat Jim Himes in Connecticut’s 4th District suffered a serious blow, as heavily recruited GOP state legislator John McKinney has taken himself out of the running.” [CQ Politics, 7/30/09]

Maybe you should be doing more recruiting then Pete.

3. Strike Three

Oh and then we just found out from this article that Sessions thinks that Mississipi State Senator Alan Nunnelee (see below) is running in Alabama against Freshman Parker Griffith (AL-05). h/t to Left in Alabama for this discovery

A few top candidates who entered their races in the last month have yet to be placed on the list but could be soon. Sessions said, for instance, that Alabama state Sen. Alan Nunnelee, who just announced he would challenge Rep. Parker Griffith (D-Ala.), would soon be a part of the program.

Way to be on top of it sport. Nunnelee has announced to run against Blue Dog Travis Childers (MS-01). The one that the NRCC ran the same candidate against in a Special Election and then a few months later again in the General and lost both times.

Not sure that this Nunellee guy (see below) really qualifies as a “Young Gun” either

But as Swing State Project points out that being young is not really a requirement of the “Young Guns” program

And let’s leave aside the issue of calling 62 year-old Steve Pearce and 56 year-old Steve Chabot “Young Guns” for the moment.

You are outtttttttttttt of there buddy. See ya in Vegas.