Tag: Polls

1.  MA-05, has there been any recent polling, public or private?  It would be great to get a poll result just before the election.

2. IN-07, has Julia Carson got a primary opponent yet?  I don’t like primary challenges
as a rule, as most of them are destructive.  But one here might be for the best.

Charlie Cook has downgraded IN-07 to Likely Democratic, based on Carson’s likely decision to seek reelection.  He also seems to think Dem turnout will be down to dissatisfaction with Congress’ inability to end the Iraq war.

SurveyUSA has released its first poll showing who New Mexicans would like to see replace Republican Pete Domenici in the US Senate:

Tom Udall (D): 55
Steve Pearce (R): 37

Tom Udall (D): 56
Heather Wilson (R): 38

Bill Richardson (D): 60
Steve Pearce (R): 36

Bill Richardson (D): 62
Heather Wilson (R): 35

Marty Chavez (D): 35
Steve Pearce (R): 56

Marty Chavez (D): 44
Heather Wilson (R): 48

Patricia Madrid (D): 38
Steve Pearce (R): 54

Patricia Madrid (D): 45
Heather Wilson (R): 46

Don Wiviott (D): 23
Steve Pearce (R): 58

Don Wiviott (D): 34
Heather Wilson (R): 51

MoE: ± 4.4%, n=514

While this round of polling is likely a reflection of name-recognition, it does provide us with a valuable baseline.

Of course, it's disappointing to see that a candidate with numbers like Tom Udall has already turned down a run for the seat. And, as of now, Bill Richardson is still running for President.

In a recent poll comissioned by the state Democratic party, Alaskan voters said that they were unlikely to re-elect Republican Internet Guru Ted Stevens to the US Senate.

Likelihood to re-elect (Hays Research Group, 9/17-18; June results in parentheses; n=401; MoE=+-4.9%):

Very Unlikely: 29 (30)
Somewhat Unlikely: 16 (13)
Undecided: 11 (6)
Somewhat Likely: 16 (22)
Very Likely: 27 (28)

These numbers are certainly moving in the right direction, as a full 45% of Alaskans say they're unlikely to re-elect the veteran legislator to a seventh full term.

I guess all the corruption was bound to catch up to him at some point.

Here’s an interesting nugget from Virginia: a poll testing the strength of Democratic challenger Chap Peterson, who is going up against Republican incumbent Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis, the wife of Rep. Tom Davis, in Virginia’s 34th state Senate district this November.  First, a few caveats about the poll: 1) Not Larry Sabato, the source of the poll, has a good track record of getting inside dope in Virginia, but we don’t know anything about the poll other than its results–crosstabs, margin of error, or even the name of the pollster.  2) State legislative districts are notoriously difficult to poll.  It’s difficult to get a good sample in a small voter pool (it’s hard enough with a congressional district) like a state senate district in Virginia (which contain under 200K people).

That said, take it or leave it (Pollster Unknown, 9/23-24; July results in parens; n=406):

Chap Peterson (D): 46 (38)
Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis (R-inc.): 36 (39)
Undecided: 17 (22)

The battle between Peterson and Devolites-Davis is seen by many as a proxy war of sorts between Tom Davis and former Gov. Mark Warner, who are both vying for the seat of retiring US Senator John Warner.  The poll also tests their strength in the state Senate district, which NLS describes as “the heart of the 11th district”, Tom Davis’ political base:

Mark Warner (D): 53
Tom Davis (R): 35

If this poll is at all accurate (and that’s anyone’s guess, given the questionable track record of state legislative race polls), Tom and Jeannemarie have their work cut out for them in Northern Virginia.

Indiana’s Republican Governor Mitch Daniels has had a bit of a bumpy first term.  Controversy surrounding his initiative to privatize Indiana’s toll road, his efforts to push the state into following daylight savings time, and his clashes with the state legislature over tax increases wore down his approval rating dramatically.  In fact, Daniels’ disapproval ratings were higher than his approval ratings for all but one of SurveyUSA’s monthly tracking polls during 2006. 

Research 2000 has released the first poll of Daniels’ re-election race, and of the Democratic primary between state Senator Richard Young, businessman Jim Schellinger, and former Rep. Jill Long Thompson.  The results are not pretty for Mitch.

First, the Governor’s approvals:

Q: How would you rate the performance of Mitch Daniels as Governor; excellent, good, only fair, or poor?

Excellent/Good: 45
Fair/Poor: 47
Not Sure: 8

MoE: ±3.5%

Next, the straight-up re-election numbers:

Q: If the election for Governor were held today, would you vote to reelect Mitch Daniels, would you consider voting for another candidate, or would you vote to replace Daniels?

Re-Elect: 39
Would Consider Another Candidate: 21
Would Not Re-Elect: 37

Interestingly, 14% of Republicans polled would consider voting for another candidate, and 12% would vote for someone else.  In a general election match-up poll against Jill Long Thompson, Daniels isn’t exactly sitting in a position of strength:

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 46
Jill Long Thompson (D): 38
Undecided: 16

That’s a surprisingly strong showing by Thompson, who served in the House from 1988 to 1994, and narrowly lost a comeback attempt against Republican Chris Chocola in Indiana’s 2nd District in 2002.  The poll also shows her in a strong position to win the Democratic primary:

Jill Long Thompson: 41
Richard Young: 16
Jim Schellinger: 10

Daniels still has over a year to turn this ship around, but he’s showing a great deal of weakness this far out.  Perhaps Indiana voters are realizing that Bush’s man is not theirs.

(Hat-tip: Blue Indiana)

From SUSA (likely voters; 08/04 – 08/06; 7/14-7/16 in parens

Steve Beshear (D): 58 (59)
Ernie Fletcher (R-inc.): 37 (36)
MoE: ± 4%

Still a solid lead for Beshear, who currently is mopping the floor with Fletcher in all areas of the state:

In Western KY, Fletcher trails today by 8. In Eastern KY, Fletcher trails by 13. In North Central KY, Fletcher trails by 22. In greater Louisville, Fletcher trails by 34.

But wait, there’s a wrinkle in the poll: it oversamples Republicans, as Mark Hebert and Mark Nikolas (of the newly-resurrected Bluegrass Report) point out:

In the previous 30 Survey USA polls on Fletcher’s job approval, the average percentage of Republicans sampled was just 34.8% — and the previous general election match-up on Survey USA showed 37% Republican respondents. This means that Fletcher was barely able to tread water in this poll despite a 7 to 9 point advantage from oversampling Republicans. Very, very bad news.

I’d be quite surprised if this one didn’t tighten up in the months ahead, given what Mark describes as a utterly stenographic local media willing to carry Fletcher’s message, but that’s not a new challenge for any Democrat to face.

According to Roll Call (subscription required), the NRCC is getting giddy over the candidacy of state Senator Nick Jordan against 5th-term Democratic Rep. Dennis Moore:

House Republicans, long stymied by Rep. Dennis Moore (D) in Kansas’ GOP-leaning 3rd district, think they might have recruited the perfect candidate — state Sen. Nick Jordan (R) — to flip the seat back to the GOP.

In Washington, D.C., last week to participate in the National Republican Congressional Committee’s candidate school, Jordan is described as having the support of both the moderate and conservative wings of the GOP in the Jayhawk State’s 3rd district.

If true, this could prove crucial for a Jordan victory. That’s because Moore first won the suburban eastern Kansas district in 1998 — and has held it since — largely because Republicans have failed to unify behind their nominee in each of the past five elections.

“Both moderates and conservatives are pushing [Jordan] to run,” said a knowledgeable Republican operative based in Kansas. “This is the guy we’ve been waiting for.”

Jordan said in a brief interview late last week that he is “very likely” to run for Congress in 2008 and that he probably would announce his intentions sometime in August. […]

Republicans in D.C. and Kansas claim that Jordan’s position on social issues and his record on economic matters appeal jointly to the conservative and moderate wings of 3rd district Republicans. The two factions have warred with each other in the 3rd district at least since 1998 when Moore defeated Vince Snowbarger (R) for the seat — a split that reflects an intraparty rift plaguing the Kansas GOP statewide since the early 1990s.

Jordan is socially conservative, opposing both abortion rights and embryonic stem-cell research — which makes the conservatives happy. But he also has a lengthy record of championing business and economic development projects — and this makes the moderates happy.

It’s hard to blame Republicans for trying at an R+4.2 seat in a Presidential year, but I’m having a hard time seeing Moore as a particularly vulnerable incumbent, especially after looking at his steadily improving electoral track record:

Year	Moore (%)	Republican (%)
1998	52	48
2000	50	47
2002	50	47
2004	55	43
2006	64	34

With a Presidential year bringing the base to the polls (we assume) and a more credible challenger than novice Chuck Ahner, who Moore beat by 30 points last year, Republicans may be able to hold the incumbent to a level more similar to his 2004 result than his 2006 blow out. Nick Smith may be a good recruit for Tom Cole’s NRCC (assuming he makes his bid final), but he strikes me as three or four cycles too late to catch Moore in a particularly vulnerable position.

From SurveyUSA (registered voters; 07/30/07, 02/14/07 in parens):

Norm Coleman (R): 49 (57)
Al Franken (DFL): 42 (35)
Undecided: 9

Norm Coleman (R): 48 (57)
Mike Ciresi (DFL): 42 (34)
Undecided: 11

Norm Coleman (R): 49
Jim Cohen (DFL): 37
Undecided: 14
MoE: ±4%

What a tumble for Smilin’ Norm since February.  Coleman, who has enjoyed strong (but hardly stellar) approval ratings for much of the past two years, now has a net negative approval rating for the first time in 27 months of SUSA’s tracking history (48% disapprove, 43% approve).  The key here is that he can’t crack 50% against a candidate with very little name recognition: activist Jim Cohen.  (Seriously: who?)

There’s been quite a bit of skepticism (from myself included, I’ll admit), that Norm Coleman may be able to shape-shift his way out of the jaws of defeat while not facing a “top tier” Democratic challenger.  With voters still feeling frustrated over the Iraq debacle, even Smilin’ Norm may not be able to escape the anvil of the thoroughly disastrous Bush legacy.

(Hat tip: Taegan Goddard)

Since taking office in 2005, Republican Governor Matt Blunt of Missouri has had a bumpy ride in his first term.  He started off with a thud by cutting Medicare coverage to nearly 90,000 people, decimating a crucial service to many of his state's most vulnerable citizens.  Things were slow to improve for the boy Governor, but the startlingly high disapproval ratings that he attracted throughout 2005 and 2006 have begun to subside a bit, and, for the first time in the last two years of SurveyUSA's monthly polling, he has a net positive approval rating of +2 (48% approve, 46% disapprove).

If Democrats are getting anxious that Blunt may be rehabilitating himself into a second term, they should take comfort by today's SUSA poll gaging support for Blunt's re-election against his likely Democratic challenger, Attorney General Jay Nixon (registered voters; 07/24-07/25):

Jay Nixon (D): 57%
Matt Blunt (R-inc.): 38%
MoE: ±4.4%

So maybe Missouri voters don’t despise Blunt with the same intensity that they did two years ago, but they’re still primed to return the Governor’s office to Democratic control.

A new WMUR/CNN poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center shows Republican Senator John Sununu, a desperately out-of-touch enabler of the Bush Administration, performing badly in a series of hypothetical Senate match-ups:

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 54
John E. Sununu (R): 38

Steve Marchand (D): 38
John E. Sununu (R): 42

Katrina Swett (D): 39
John E. Sununu (R): 43

Jay Buckey (D): 28
John E. Sununu (R): 44

MoE: ± 4.3%

You can view the full polling memo in PDF format here.  While it is yet another poll showing Shaheen with a commanding lead over the floundering incumbent, challengers Swett and Marchand have a lot to be pleased about with this poll, too.  Despite having much smaller profiles than Shaheen (a former Governor), Sununu is mired in the low-40s: extremely dangerous territory for an incumbent to be.  Whether Shaheen mounts a bid or not (and I’d still be surprised if she didn’t, at this point), Sununu has set course for a world of hurt next year.

A big hat-tip to Dean over at Blue Hampshire.