I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.
But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)
This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.
crossposted to dailyKos
In previous diaries, I looked at TX and OH, which having filing deadlines coming up. Today, Illinois, where filing is already closed.
The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics. I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.
Illinois has 19 congressional districts
10 are held by Democrats, 9 by Republicans (sort of odd in a state that has, arguably, the most liberal senate delegation).
The 10 held by Democrats are
Confirmed
district Cook Prob Repub Incumbent Challenger? rating
1 D+35 .07 Rush Yes Safe
2 D+35 .10 Jackson No
3 D+10 .43 Lipinski Yes (and primary!) Fairly
safe
4 D+31 .29 Gutierrez No
5 D+18 .37 Emmanuel No
7 D+35 .07 Davis No (primary) Safe
8 R+5 .61 Bean Yes (and primary) Vul.
9 D+20 .18 Schakowsky Yes Safe
12 D+5 .44 Costello Yes moderate
17 D+5 .56 Hare No
notes: Lipinski deserves to be primaried
The only race that is at all likely to go Repub is Bean, in IL08.
The 17th might have changed, but there’s no challenger.
All nine Republican seats are being contested (woot! woot!) some details
IL-06 R+2.9 .53
The 6th is the western suburbs of Chicago
Roskam was first elected in 2006, replacing the odious Henry Hyde. He won a close (5,000 votes) and very expensive (combined spending $8 million) race against Tammy Duckworth.
There are two challengers: Jill Morgenthaler and Stan Jagla
IL-10 D+4 .67
The 10th is the north shore suburbs of Chicago, a very high income area (median income = $71,663).
Kirk, first elected in 2000, is one of the most moderate Republicans in the House. In 2006 he beat Dan Seals 53%-47%, outspending Seals 2-1.
Seals is running again, as is Jay Footlik , although Seals looks like the favorite. Seals is also raking in the money, raising $300K in the third quarter.
IL-11 R+1.1 .65
The 11th is shaped like a T, with its base in Bloomington and Normal, and its upper right bar ending in Joliet and Kankakee.
Weller, first elected in 1994, is retiring. In 2006, he won 55-45 against John Pavich, whom he outspent more than 3-1.
The Democratic candidate is Debbie Halvorsen , and there are three Republicans in a primary; Halvorsen is the majority leader of the state senate. This is winnable! Bush actually got less than 50% in 2000 (adding Gore and Nader); Weller did much better, but he was an incumbent with a big war-chest. And his margins keep getting smaller: 2002 – 64%, 2004 – 59%, 2006 – 55%.
IL-13 R+5 .67
The 13th is the western suburbs of Chicago.
Biggert, first elected in 1998, looks increasingly vulnerable. In 2002 she got 70%, 2004 – 65%, and 2006 – 58%. In 2006, she outspent challenger Joseph Shannon by more than 4-1. This year she faces a primary and then
Scott Halper .
IL-14 R+5 .68
The 14th runs almost the entire width of IL, from the far western suburbs of Chicago almost to the IA border.
Hastert, the former speaker, has resigned! Bye Dennis! We won’t miss you! Say hi to the family!
There are primaries in both parties, but the Democratic favorite has to be John Laesch , who got 40% against Hastert in 2006, even though Hastert raised $5 million to Laesch’s $300,000. The primary is Feb 5th, and then a special election March 8. Laesch is also a kossack
IL-15 R+6 .62
The 15th is the eastern middle of IL, centering on Champaign and Urbana.
Johnson, first elected in 2000, has managed to win relatively easily without massive spending, twice beating David Gill.
This year, the challenger is Steve Cox.
IL-16 R+4 .67
The 16th is the northern edge of IL, all along the border with WI and IA.
Manzullo, first elected in 1992, has not been seriously challenged.
The challenger is Robert Aboud , a nuclear engineer and businessman.
IL-18 R+5.5 .66
The 18th is more or less in the middle of the state, including Springfield and Jacksonville.
LaHood, first elected in 1994, is retiring.
It’s not clear who, if anyone, is challenging from the Democratic side…local help, please?
IL-19 R+8 .76
The 19th is most of the southern end of IL, including Centralia
Shimkus, first elected in 1996, has not been seriously challenged since, winning easily without raising huge amounts, although in 2006, Danny Stover got 39% with only $166,000.
There are several Democratic challengers (see the link).
Summary
Only one Democratic seat looks in danger.
Six Republican seats do.
This won’t go up on dailyKos until tomorrow….so if you spot any errors, I can correct them before it goes up there.
I have to completely disagree with your assessment on the 14th district. John Laesch can in no way be considered the favorite in this race. Bill Foster clearly has more and bigger endorsements, has raised more money from individual small contributors and has a big wallet himself. While Laesch may break 100,000 dollars raised after his 4th quarter tally is added, Foster is looking at breaking 600,000 dollars. If I had to bet on the race todat, I’d bet that Foster wins and wins big. This race will completely fall off my chart of winnable races if Laesch wins the primary.
I am a Democrat. I live in the 18th District. I acquired a petition to circulate in spite of our Party Chairman’s instructions not to, so Mr. Versace could be opponent-less in the primary. I came up about 100 or so signatures short. I immediately, upon realizing this, emailed the only email address on the Board of Elections Website (this would have been around Nov 1) as to how to go about being a write in. I have yet to get a response.
That’s not all. The candidate guide says one week before the election is when a person has to be a write-in. I was counting on this in December. I was sick for most of the month, with some sort of flu or something. Mr. Versace dropped out (or at least the announcement was made) on the 6 of last month. I went in two weeks later to my (Democrat) county clerk (as I said I had been sick most of the month) and requested the form for declaring to be a write in. Imagine my surprise when she tells me it was too late. I got home and called the Board of Elections and they informed me of SB 662 which was signed into law EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY on Nov. 9. which changed the week to 61 days. Guess when that sixty-one days was? Dec. 6. Imagine my shock to learn the bill had first been voted on before June 1 in the Senate and in August in the House. If this change were so important (A) why was it not in the bill that moved the primary, and (B) why were those who were receiving candidate guides not informed of the bill as it awaited the Governor’s signature?
So now, even though I have been a faithful Democrat my whole voting life, my party is going to deny me my Constitutional Right(I am at least 25, I am a US Citizen, and have lived in Illinois for 25 years, 17 in my town-see article one) to run for the US House in favor of some people who don’t even live in the district or someone who is politically and financially connected? This makes sense to anyone?!?!?!
The post needs a correction for IL-19.
The 2004 & 2006 Dem candidates were SERIOUS challengers. Unfortunately, no one else was serious about the challengers.
Everyone seems to enjoy allowing Shimkus to coast every election cycle for whatever reason. It has been so bad that Democratic voters either stay home or vote for him. No one in the Party seems to care about getting rid of one of the biggest jokes in Congress.