I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.
But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)
This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.
crossposted to dailyKos
In previous diaries, I looked at TX and OH, which having filing deadlines coming up. Today, Illinois, where filing is already closed.
The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics. I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.
Illinois has 19 congressional districts
10 are held by Democrats, 9 by Republicans (sort of odd in a state that has, arguably, the most liberal senate delegation).
The 10 held by Democrats are
Confirmed
district Cook Prob Repub Incumbent Challenger? rating
1 D+35 .07 Rush Yes Safe
2 D+35 .10 Jackson No
3 D+10 .43 Lipinski Yes (and primary!) Fairly
safe
4 D+31 .29 Gutierrez No
5 D+18 .37 Emmanuel No
7 D+35 .07 Davis No (primary) Safe
8 R+5 .61 Bean Yes (and primary) Vul.
9 D+20 .18 Schakowsky Yes Safe
12 D+5 .44 Costello Yes moderate
17 D+5 .56 Hare No
notes: Lipinski deserves to be primaried
The only race that is at all likely to go Repub is Bean, in IL08.
The 17th might have changed, but there’s no challenger.
All nine Republican seats are being contested (woot! woot!) some details
IL-06 R+2.9 .53
The 6th is the western suburbs of Chicago
Roskam was first elected in 2006, replacing the odious Henry Hyde. He won a close (5,000 votes) and very expensive (combined spending $8 million) race against Tammy Duckworth.
There are two challengers: Jill Morgenthaler and Stan Jagla
IL-10 D+4 .67
The 10th is the north shore suburbs of Chicago, a very high income area (median income = $71,663).
Kirk, first elected in 2000, is one of the most moderate Republicans in the House. In 2006 he beat Dan Seals 53%-47%, outspending Seals 2-1.
Seals is running again, as is Jay Footlik , although Seals looks like the favorite. Seals is also raking in the money, raising $300K in the third quarter.
IL-11 R+1.1 .65
The 11th is shaped like a T, with its base in Bloomington and Normal, and its upper right bar ending in Joliet and Kankakee.
Weller, first elected in 1994, is retiring. In 2006, he won 55-45 against John Pavich, whom he outspent more than 3-1.
The Democratic candidate is Debbie Halvorsen , and there are three Republicans in a primary; Halvorsen is the majority leader of the state senate. This is winnable! Bush actually got less than 50% in 2000 (adding Gore and Nader); Weller did much better, but he was an incumbent with a big war-chest. And his margins keep getting smaller: 2002 – 64%, 2004 – 59%, 2006 – 55%.
IL-13 R+5 .67
The 13th is the western suburbs of Chicago.
Biggert, first elected in 1998, looks increasingly vulnerable. In 2002 she got 70%, 2004 – 65%, and 2006 – 58%. In 2006, she outspent challenger Joseph Shannon by more than 4-1. This year she faces a primary and then
Scott Halper .
IL-14 R+5 .68
The 14th runs almost the entire width of IL, from the far western suburbs of Chicago almost to the IA border.
Hastert, the former speaker, has resigned! Bye Dennis! We won’t miss you! Say hi to the family!
There are primaries in both parties, but the Democratic favorite has to be John Laesch , who got 40% against Hastert in 2006, even though Hastert raised $5 million to Laesch’s $300,000. The primary is Feb 5th, and then a special election March 8. Laesch is also a kossack
IL-15 R+6 .62
The 15th is the eastern middle of IL, centering on Champaign and Urbana.
Johnson, first elected in 2000, has managed to win relatively easily without massive spending, twice beating David Gill.
This year, the challenger is Steve Cox.
IL-16 R+4 .67
The 16th is the northern edge of IL, all along the border with WI and IA.
Manzullo, first elected in 1992, has not been seriously challenged.
The challenger is Robert Aboud , a nuclear engineer and businessman.
IL-18 R+5.5 .66
The 18th is more or less in the middle of the state, including Springfield and Jacksonville.
LaHood, first elected in 1994, is retiring.
It’s not clear who, if anyone, is challenging from the Democratic side…local help, please?
IL-19 R+8 .76
The 19th is most of the southern end of IL, including Centralia
Shimkus, first elected in 1996, has not been seriously challenged since, winning easily without raising huge amounts, although in 2006, Danny Stover got 39% with only $166,000.
There are several Democratic challengers (see the link).
Summary
Only one Democratic seat looks in danger.
Six Republican seats do.