According to census estimates, both Washington and Oregon are on the cusp of gaining another district. Hopefully both states will gain a district because they will be Democratic districts.
My goals are:
– Make the new districts Democratic.
– Make Dave Reichert’s district too Democratic.
– Cross the Cascades only once per state.
– Make the districts look compact and look fair.
The state maps are thumbnails. Click on it to link to a full-size map.
10 District Washington:
District 1: Rick Larsen (D) (blue) (Old 2nd)
Rural-and-small-cities Western Washington
The old 2nd district loses some territory in southwestern Snohomish County, including Everett and Marysville, and gainst territory in eastern King and Pierce Counties. Its population does not change much.
Population Per county:
| County | New 1st | Old 2nd |
|---|---|---|
| San Juan | 96718 | 96718 |
| Whatcom | 196529 | 196529 |
| Skagit | 118000 | 118000 |
| Snohomish | 139664 | 332734 |
| King | 65772 | 656 |
| Pierce | 38591 | 0 |
It is probably more Republican than before, but still Democratic enough.
District 2: Jay Inslee (D) (green) (Old 1st)
Cities/Suburbs North of Seattle
The old 2nd district loses its territory west of the Puget Sound and gains more territory in Snohomish County. Now it’s contiguous, and compact, and still safe for Democrats.
District 3: Jim McDermott (D) (purple) (Old 7th)
Seattle
The entire city of Seattle, plus a very small area directly south of the city. Because the suburbs are also very Democratic, there is nothing to gain by splitting the city among several districts. Seattle is 94% of the district’s population.
District 4: Dave Reichert (R) (red) (Old 8th)
Cities/Suburbs East of Seattle
This district is smaller than the old 8th, and more Democratic. Dave Reichert won’t be able to get reelected here.
District 5: Adam Smith (D) (yellow) (Old 9th)
Cities/Suburbs South of Seattle
There must have been a lot of growth here because this district is a lot smaller than the old 9th. It fills the corridor between Seattle and Tacoma without entering either city.
District 6: Norm Dicks (D) (turquoise) (Old 6th)
Cities/Suburbs West of Seattle
The 6th currently takes consists of the entire western peninsula. The new 6th is a compact urban district along the shore of the Puget Sound from Tacoma to Bremerton.
District 7: No Incumbent (gray)
Western Peninsula
This is the new district. It is everything west of the Puget Sound and north of the mouth of the Columbia, except the urban area around Seattle/Tacoma. Its largest city is Olympia. Finally Olympia dominates a congressional district; 37% of the district’s population is in Thurston County. It should be safely Democratic.
District 8: Brian Baird (D) (light purple) (Old 3rd)
Southern Washington
This district is dominated by Vancouver. Clark County is 65% of the district. This is the only district to cross the Cascades. It takes southern Yakima County and eastern Yakima city. Yakima will be the only county in Washington split between a Democratic and Republican district. I don’t have voting data, but here is the demographic data:
| Yakima County | 8th | 9th | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 132430 | 102134 | 234564 |
| %White | 29% | 78% | 51% |
| %Hispanic | 60% | 16% | 41% |
| %Native | 6% | 1% | 4% |
Southern Yakima is a welcome addition to a Democratic district.
District 9: Doc Hastings (R) (cyan) (Old 4th)
Western Eastern Washington
Strongly Republican.
District 10: Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) (magenta) (Old 5th)
Eastern Eastern Washington
Republican enough.
9 District Washington:
The obvious differences between the 9 District map and the 10 district map are: there are only 4 urban Seattle-area districts, and this time one of the eastern districts has an appendage west of the Cascades.
District 1:
Extends further into the (probably Republican) suburbs of King and Pierce Counties. Now they make up nearly a quarter of the district’s population. So the district is still dominated by its northern counties, still safe for its Democratic incumbent, and should be safe for Democrats in the future.
District 2:
Takes more territory in northern King County.
District 3:
Takes more territory south of Seattle. But Seattle is still 85% of the district’s population.
District 4:
Still a more Democratic version of the existing 8th.
District 5:
Now it includes Tacoma.
District 6:
Similar to the existing 6th, but it trades Tacoma for Olympia.
District 7:
The Baird district loses Olympia and eastern Lewis County, and gains Grays Harbor County. This probably makes the district shift more Republican because even though Grays Harbor is Democratic, it has less population than Olympia.
District 8:
In addition to Eastern Washington, it takes 13000 residents in Lewis County. Lewis County is the only western county that voted for McCain.
District 9:
Just like the existing 5th, but a little bigger.
6 District Oregon:
District 1: Earl Blumenaur (D) (blue) (Old 3rd)
Portland
90% of its population is in the city of Portland. I recommend doing this as long as it doesn’t weaken the other districts too much.
District 2: David Wu (D) (green) (Old 1st)
Portland suburbs
A small suburban Portland district is a good idea, as long as it doesn’t pack in too much Democratic voting strength, weakening the other districts.
District 3: No Incumbent (purple)
Western Willamette Valley and Coast
The several small left-leaning counties in northwestern Oregon usually get split up and attached to urban districts. Now I’m putting them together in their own district. Its largest cities are Hillsboro and Corvallis.
District 4: Kurt Schrader (D) (red) (Old 5th)
Eastern Willamette Valley
I would only recommend creating a district like this if its portion of Clackamas County voted at least 52% for Obama. It includes Salem, Albany, and eastern Gresham.
District 5: Peter Defazio (D) (yellow) (Old 4th)
Southern Oregon
This is an interesting shape, mean to avoid the most rural conservative parts of Western Oregon. It starts in Lane County, including Eugene and Springfield, goes through northwest Douglas County, avoiding as much of the county as possible. It takes in all of Coos and Curry Counties. It takes southern Josephine, including Grants Pass, and southwest Jackson, including Medford and Ashland. It should be more Democratic than the existing 4th.
District 6: Greg Walden (R) (turquoise) (Old 2nd)
Eastern Oregon
All of eastern Oregon plus the rural conservative parts of southwestern Oregon.
5 District Oregon:
If Oregon only gets 5 districts, then at least they will be 4 safe Democratic districts. However it doesn’t preserve the “communities of interest” I created in the 2nd and 3rd districts of the 6 district version.
District 1:
Multnomah County and most of Columbia County.
District 2:
Portland’s western suburbs combined with the rural northwestern part of the state.
District 3:
Nearly all of Clackamas, all of Marion, all of Polk, and the northwest corner of Linn (Albany). Safe Democratic.
District 4:
I’m proud of this one. It starts in Lincoln County (60% Obama) and follows the coast. It takes Eugene and Springfield, as well as Grants Pass, Medford and Ashland.
District 5:
Eastern Oregon and a lot of rural conservative territory in Western Oregon.
Conclusion:
No matter what happens in the census, Republicans should get no more than 2 seats in Washington and 1 in Oregon. Putting Seattle in a single district is a good idea, while putting Portland in a single district could be risky. The idea that a Washington 8-2 plan makes stronger Democratic districts than a 7-2 plan is counterintuitive but it seems to be true.
It would be great if this could be done in Washington, but as we have a non-partison election redistricting commission (http://www.redistricting.wa.gov/), I think it would be unlikely, if not impossible, even if the Dems continue to hold both the House and Senate.
I don’t have enough time to comment on all of your mapping and suggestions, but I’d just note that if WA stays with 9 districts, I think it would be very unlikely (although fabulous) they’d put super-red Lewis County in the 8th. Geographically that would not fly with the statutes of the Commission. The only “natural” land route between Eastern and Western Washington is along the Columbia River, and it would be Skamania County (and if necessary, parts of Clark County) that go with the 8th.
Oh, I wish it weren’t so. But in grand scheme of things, I wish all states were like Washington (e.g. Texas) and all redistricting was non-partison.
but you drew Jay Inslee’s home out of his district. He lives in Bainbridge Island.
I’ve got a better idea for Eastern Washington. It probably won’t fly, but I’d suggest linking Spokane to Pullman and thence to Yakima, while minimizing rural areas, which can go to the 4th or its equivalent, while the 5th is now an urban weak-R/swing district dominated by Spokane and Washington State University. You’d have to use tendril like lines when going west, and the 4th would expand, but it needs to anyway.
I’ve made a map of Oregon based on these projections as well. In mine, DeFazio’s district is very similar to the ones you made. However, there is a big problem with your 6-district map’s Portland districts: there isn’t enough population in those small areas. I tried, and there aren’t enough people.
What I did was that I comprised OR-1 (Wu) of Washington, Polk, and Yamhill, OR-5 (Schrader) got extreme eastern Multnomah, all of Clackamas and Hood River, part of Wasco, and most of Marion Counties, plus parts of South Portland. OR-3 got the rest of Multnomah.
The new District, OR-6, resembles ArkDem’s earlier map by beginning in Columbia County and absorbing the coastal counties before turning east to absorb heavily Democratic Lincoln and Benton counties and then north to take in Salem.
I have the maps saved via the Print Screen function and hope to post them within the next week or so.
That’s an interesting map. As a Democrat, it would actually worry me. I think it would make both Rick Larsen and Brian Baird have tougher districts. Larsen would lose Everett, a big stronghold. Baird would lose part of Olympia, another big Dem stronghold, although he would lose Lewis County, which would be a plus. The new 10th could be competetive, too.
I did a 10 district WA a while back. Check it out for grins. In that I gave Reichert a safe cross-mountain (via I-90) districts in exchange for a safe Darcy Burner district :-).