Since I live here in Minneapolis, MN and am addicted to Dave’s Redistricting App, I decided to try my hand at redistricting MN two different ways, first, assuming we lose a district and second, assuming we do not lose a district. The 7 district plan is below and should produce a 6-1 DFL map, or at worst a 5-2. The 8 District Map could be 7-1, but will be 6-2 once Peterson retires I think.
I’m very much a compactness kind of guy, but that doesn’t mean you can’t get a good Democratic Gerrymander with a compact map. The Maps and district descriptions are below the fold:
Here’s the seven district map:
District 1: Tim Walz (DFL) Blue
I originally forgot to include Mankato, Walz’s home, in this district and had to do some fancy work with MN-7 to make in in the district, but it worked. This district has three main bases Mankato, Rochester and then the motherload, Dakota County and the suburbs it contains. This should be a significantly more DFL friendly district than the 1st as it exists now.
District 2: John Kline (R) Green
Kline should be the lone GOP Representative in MN under this map; I seriously packed GOP votes in here, though I almost forgot to include his home in Lakeville. Carver, Scott and Wright Counties house the GOP leaning exurbs that are the backbone of this district. It encompasses about half of the old 2nd and half of the old 6th. I took a couple of the GOP leaning portions of the 7th as well. Obama definitely lost this district, probably by about 10 points.
District 3: OPEN (formerly Erik Paulson (R)) Purple
I took Paulson’s home in Eden Prairie out of this district and gave all the GOP parts of Hennepin over to the 2nd. This district is based in Anoka County and will be a fairly 50-50 district I think, but will lean DFL over the next few years if it does not already lean that way. I considered including Bloomington in it, but it just got too messy.
District 4: Betty McCollum (DFL) vs Michelle Bachmann (R) Red
Placing Bachmann’s residence here was accidental at first, but too amusing not to go ahead with. This will be a walk in the park for McCollum, and Bachmann may move to run in the 2nd, but she might be crazy enough to think she can beat McCollum. This is essentially the old 4th plus a chunk of Washington County
District 5: Keith Ellison (DFL) vs Erik Paulson (R) Yellow
Now, some of you may be scared that Ellison won’t win this district. That’s ridiculous. Ellison did better in the 5th in 2008 than did his predecessor Martin Sabo who help the district for decades. Paulson may move to run in the new 3rd rather than go up against Ellison, but The addition of Eden Prairie and Edina to the true blue 5th helps spread some of the DFL love around.
District 6: Jim Obrestar (DFL) Teal?
The old 8th becomes the 6th and essentially stays the same. I reddened it a litle to help the 7th blue up a bit, but it still leans DFL.
District 7: Collin Peterson (DFL) Grey
Peterson’s district added a LOT considering its low population growth. It expanded to include much of the old 1st district and I had the 6th take some of the more red parts of the old 7th. It essentially is a R+2-4 district I think, but competative for the right Democrat when Peterson retires. He’ll hold it until he leaves though.
Now for the 8 District Map
District 1: Tim Walz (DFL)
I didn’t strengthen it much, but some of the GOP leaning rural areas went to the 7th. Walz will be fine here and Obama won the district.
District 2: OPEN (formerly John Kline(R) )
Kline might move here, as this is the heavy GOP seat, but then again, Paulson and Bachman may move here too, since I drew all 3 GOP reps out of their districts. Whoever represents the 2nd could be the lone GOP Representative in MN under this map; I seriously packed GOP votes in here. Carver, Scott and Wright Counties house the GOP leaning exurbs that are the backbone of this district, as well as St. Cloud. It encompasses about half of the old 2nd and half of the old 6th. I took a couple of the GOP leaning portions of the 7th as well. Obama definitely lost this district, probably by about 10 points.
District 3: John Kline (R)
Kline lives in this new version of the 3rd which is based around Bloomington, MN and Dakota County. Obama won this district by a few points and its prolly around D+1. Kline may run here or he may move to the 2nd but this is a lean DFL district.
District 4: Betty McCollum (DFL) vs Michelle Bachmann (R)
This will be a walk in the park for McCollum, and Bachmann may move to run in the 2nd or the 6th, but she might be crazy enough to think she can beat McCollum. This is essentially the old 4th plus a chunk of Washington County
District 5: Keith Ellison (DFL) vs Erik Paulson (R)
Now, some of you may be scared that Ellison won’t win this district. That’s ridiculous. Ellison did better in the 5th in 2008 than did his predecessor Martin Sabo who help the district for decades. Paulson may move to run in the new 2nd rather than go up against Ellison, but The addition of Eden Prairie and Edina to the true blue 5th helps spread some of the DFL love around.
District 6: OPEN (formerly Michelle Bachmann (R) )
This is a new incarnation of the 6th, based in Anoka county, but much more suburban than the old 6th. This leans DFL and it would be an easy win for Tinklenberg or another Mainstream DFLer.
District 7: Collin Peterson (DFL)
Peterson’s district added a bit considering its low population growth. It expanded to include some of the old 1st district and I had the 2nd take some of the more red parts of the old 7th. It essentially is a R+4-6 district I think, but could competative for the right Democrat when Peterson retires. He’ll hold it until he leaves though.
District 8: Jim Obrestar (DFL) Purple
The 8th essentially stays the same. I reddened it a little to help the 7th blue up a bit, but it still leans DFL.
on both maps. Why is it only in the 50-50 range? It seems (can’t tell too well though) that you’re packing in a lot of D-friendly areas into the 5th. Why would you move Edina and Eden Prairie into the 5th? You’re still keeping the North Minneapolis base that has held it together for the Democrats and not moving much out to help the other surrounding areas. I like that the western parts of the 3rd were drawn out, particularly the Wayzata/West Lake Minnetonka communities as they are too heavily GOP to ever support a Democrat on the federal level, but you waste it by moving out D and D-trending areas. You should move Hopkins, Eden Prairie, Edina, and/or Golden Valley (at least some combination of those districts) within the 3rd to keep it heavily D. There’s no reason why the 3rd shouldn’t be 55% in favor of Democrats – a margin easy enough to kick Paulson’s ass. You’re too focused on drawing Paulson out of his district when he could have easily lost as a sitting incumbent.
Of course, if Tarryl Clark, who is from the St. Cloud area, wins MN-06 in 2010 these maps won’t work.
One suggestion: You might want to add the color to your description of each district (i.e., District 1 (Blue)).
The 6-1 looks safer, while the 7-1 tries the make the best of a bad situation.
Well, Eden Prairie is not a huge DFL friendly area, it’s fairly GOP at the Congressional level. The 3rd in both situations may be more DFL than I think it is, but I don’t have all the partisan data in front of me. I drew it sort of on gut instict in some cases. I really like the 8 seat map which has 5 DFL strong districts, one GOP lean held by a Dem (7th) one Solid GOP (2nd) and one toss-up/lean DFL (6th).
My CD5 is somewhat similar (omg, Im finally posting my 8 seat map later this week, thank god) and it takes in Minneapolis, and the south and southwest burbs including Shakopee, Savage, and Prior Lake. It’s still 69/29 so mmhhhmmm. Ellison actually probably is safe regardless of what you do with his district as long as all of Minneapolis is still in it. I did an IHATEBUSH map with Minneapolis and Wright County and shit, I figured it was at worst 60/40 and was probably more like 65/35.
She will move into an open district, under either map, rather than take on McCollum.