Bold Maryland Gerrymanders

I was playing around with the newly-updated Dave’s Application that has partisan numbers and was inspired to draw a few new maps for fun !  (I think I like doing this just a little too much …)

MattTX2 inspired me in this post when he said: “One other thing I recently noticed is that in the southern half of the Eastern Shore there are some strong GOP areas have high relatively high African American populations but are still pretty strongly GOP (Talbot, Dorchester, and everything to the South). Those could theoretically be given to Donna Edwards MD-04, bringing it down to the mid/high 60s Obama% while following the voting rights act. That frees up some more heavily Democratic areas in Prince George’s County for other districts. Then MD-01 can stretch around most of the rest of the northern part of the Chesapeake Bay, and into Baltimore to make that seat Democratic.”

At first glance, I thought the same thing as others (and what I’ve always though too) that the Eastern Shore shouldn’t be split and that it would be a very tough sell for the Legislature to do during redistricting – and probably this conventional wisdom is still correct … BUT, what if the Shore can be split ?  the way to do it would be to neatly split the Upper Shore from the Lower Shore … if the Legislature went for any splitting of the Shore, it might be when done in such a manner, as the two parts of the Shore are somewhat distinct when split along this line.  

MattTX2 is correct that drawing the lines this way would be the most economical way for Democrats to free up more Democratic areas in PG Co. to be used for other districts on the western shore.  The plan here keeps both MD-4 and MD-7 majority African-American (50%+) while making every other district either 59% Obama (MD-1, MD-3, and MD-6) or 60% Obama (MD-2, MD-5 and MD-8).  This is marginally even better than the plan I originally drew in September, where I had Obama with at least 58% in each district:  http://www.swingstateproject.c…  It appears that the only way to get to at least 59%-60% Obama for each Maryland district, WHILE keeping the two majority black districts intact, is to use the Lower Eastern Shore in this manner.  

Here’s the map:

MAP 1: At least 59% Obama in each district; both black-majority districts preserved

This is advantageous in that all districts now will be solidly Democratic.  MD- 3 currently is itself 59% Obama, so it will be just as Democratic under the new lines as it currently is. MD-1 and MD-6 will, ofcourse, be a lot more Democratic than they currently are — at 59% Obama under the new lines.  MD-2 is now at 60% Obama, and that will not change.  In MD-5 and MD-8 the Democratic percentage will go down ofcourse, but at 60% Obama, they will still be very safe districts for us.  Interestingly, both Hoyer and Van Hollen are near the top of the Democratic power hierarchy, so they should have the resources to win in 60% Obama districts.  Hoyer might even like this less-Democratic district better, as it’s also less African-American and thus the lesser likelihood of a Democratic primary challenge for Hoyer in the future.  Van Hollen’s new district is one, btw, where the John Kerry percentage would be around 55% even under the new lines, as Obama’s improvement on Kerry was not as great in Montg. Co. and western MD as in other parts of the state (in all other districts drawn here, Kerry would have received at least approx. 53% of the vote).

While the black percentage in the new MD-4 and MD-7 will only be 50%+ black (which will satisfy the VRA), these districts will also be guaranteed to have continued black representation because in both districts, blacks as a percentage of the Democratic primary will still be at around 70%, and when it comes to the general election, the new MD-4 and MD-7 voted 70% Obama and 67% Obama, respectively.  

I have also kept the home of each incumbent in the district in which they currently are under the new lines.  Although my “TTP” scores are lower than in an ideal situation, each district manages to preserve at least 30% of the territory of the current district (but in most cases here, hovers around 40%, with the new MD-8 being an exception in that a full 56% of the population is preserved – although, ironically, the new MD-8 “looks” quite different on a map).

The second map I drew for fun is an EVIL 5-3 Republican gerrymander !  It’s possible to redraw Maryland in a manner where McCain wins 5 districts (albeit all 5 by the slightest margin) while Obama wins MD-4 and MD-7 by 92% and 90%, respectively, while MD-8 is 75% Obama.  Here it is:

MAP 2: Evil 5-3 GOP gerrymander

Under the map above, MD-4 and MD-7 are 68% and 69% black, respectively, while the new MD-8 is only at 49% white (blacks and Hispanics both at 17% and Asians at 13%).  This would be a GOP dream come true.  Perhaps Kratovil or Hoyer could still win the new MD-1 but it wouldn’t be guaranteed.  The GOP could draft Ehrlich to run for his old MD-2 again, or perhaps the new MD-3, as Ehrlich grew up in Arbutus.  Bartlett could still face a strong Democratic challenge in his new MD-6, but another GOPer could be a lot stronger there.  The new MD-5 could easily go Republican if they ran an Anne Arundel-based moderate to conservative candidate.  It’s interesting to note that under the EVIL GOP plan, the districts appear fairly compact and overall seem to respect county lines and “communities of interest” (!) a lot more than the first map I drew.