Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010 – Post-Filing Deadline Edition

With the filing deadline passed, we are beginning to see how the fields are shaping up for the 2010 elections in California. While the range of competitive House districts has narrowed considerably, I am still including all 8 Obama-Republican districts to watch their trends.

Cross-posted at Calitics and Democracy for California.

Breaking news: We now have a registration advantage in Assembly District 5 and are closing in on CA-03!

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
CA-03
Dan Lungren
38.46%
39.04%
R+0.58
O+0.5
CA-24
Elton Gallegly
35.78%
41.53%
R+5.75
O+2.8
CA-25
Buck McKeon
37.42%
39.58%
R+2.16
O+1.1
CA-26
David Dreier
35.64%
40.15%
R+4.51
O+4.0
CA-44
Ken Calvert
34.67%
42.47%
R+7.80
O+0.9
CA-45
Mary Bono Mack
38.02%
41.50%
R+3.48
O+4.6
CA-48
John Campbell
29.36%
44.36%
R+15.00
O+0.7
CA-50
Brian Bilbray
31.33%
39.91%
R+8.58
O+4.2

Competitive and/or open state legislature districts are over the flip…

Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 49 Democrats/29 Republicans/1 Independent (who is term-limited)/1 Vacant (Dem seat which will be filled before Election Day), with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.

SENATE

Republicans (4)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
SD-04
Sam Aanestad
32.78%
43.83%
R+11.05
M+11.8
SD-12
Jeff Denham
49.13%
32.03%
D+17.10
O+17.6
SD-18
Roy Ashburn
31.76%
47.36%
R+15.60
M+23.1
SD-36
Dennis Hollingsworth
28.97%
45.60%
R+16.63
M+14.2

Democrats (5)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
SD-16
Dean Florez
50.41%
32.00%
D+18.41
O+19.5
SD-22
Gilbert Cedillo
58.91%
14.39%
D+43.52
O+58.7
SD-24
Gloria Romero
53.53%
20.72%
D+32.81
O+41.3
SD-34
Lou Correa
44.22%
32.49%
D+11.73
O+16.8
SD-40
Denise Ducheny
46.47%
28.84%
D+17.63
O+25.7

ASSEMBLY

Republicans (16)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
AD-03
Dan Logue
34.52%
39.91%
R+5.39
M+1.6
AD-05
Roger Niello
38.97%
38.05%
D+0.92
O+4.2
AD-25
Tom Berryhill
37.35%
41.70%
R+4.35
M+7.9
AD-26
Bill Berryhill
42.35%
38.88%
D+3.47
O+4.4
AD-30
Danny Gilmore
46.12%
36.12%
D+10.00
O+3.9
AD-33
Sam Blakeslee
35.89%
40.47%
R+4.58
O+1.4
AD-36
Steve Knight
38.92%
39.29%
R+0.37
O+0.8
AD-37
Audra Strickland
35.87%
41.04%
R+5.17
O+3.7
AD-38
Cameron Smyth
36.83%
39.62%
R+2.79
O+4.9
AD-63
Bill Emmerson
37.96%
40.01%
R+2.05
O+4.1
AD-64
Brian Nestande
36.08%
41.95%
R+5.87
O+1.8
AD-65
Paul Cook
36.91%
41.29%
R+4.38
M+4.1
AD-68
Van Tran
32.78%
40.78%
R+8.00
M+2.9
AD-70
Chuck DeVore
30.12%
42.93%
R+12.81
O+3.9
AD-74
Martin Garrick
30.88%
41.17%
R+10.29
O+2.2
AD-75
Nathan Fletcher
30.64%
39.58%
R+8.94
O+4.1

Democrats (15)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
AD-07
Noreen Evans
52.94%
23.47%
D+29.47
O+43.3
AD-09
Dave Jones
56.92%
18.55%
D+38.37
O+49.0
AD-10
Alyson Huber
39.41%
39.18%
D+0.23
O+4.0
AD-15
Joan Buchanan
40.65%
35.70%
D+4.95
O+16.9
AD-20
Alberto Torrico
48.74%
19.90%
D+28.84
O+42.3
AD-21
Ira Ruskin
47.61%
26.40%
D+21.21
O+45.8
AD-23
Joe Coto
51.59%
18.60%
D+32.99
O+44.4
AD-31
Juan Arambula
50.40%
32.35%
D+18.05
O+26.1
AD-35
Pedro Nava
48.03%
27.56%
D+20.47
O+35.6
AD-47
Karen Bass
64.89%
11.14%
D+53.75
O+71.9
AD-50
Hector De La Torre
61.99%
15.82%
D+46.17
O+55.9
AD-76
Lori Saldaña
41.94%
26.52%
D+15.42
O+34.4
AD-78
Martin Block
42.97%
30.97%
D+12.00
O+21.8
AD-80
Manuel Perez
45.74%
35.25%
D+10.49
O+20.7

5 thoughts on “Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010 – Post-Filing Deadline Edition”

  1. all the fun’s going to take place in the Valley.

    Whatever happened to Maldonado’s state Senate seat, btw?  Did the Democrat win it?

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