Rhode Island doesn’t offer much for redistricting fans to sink their teeth into: it has two districts that are about equally blue, the Dems control the redistricting trifecta, and the disparity between the two districts, while not New Hampshire-close, requires only minimal boundary-shifting. Rhode Island’s target is a tiny 526,284 (only up from 524K in 2000… Rhode Island had the smallest growth, percentage-wise, of any state over the decade, putting it 2nd overall behind only Michigan, which actually lost population). If this continues, there’s the distinct possibility we could see Rhode Island reduced to one House seat come 2020. Also worth noting: Rhode Island had a lot of Hispanic growth over the decade, not quite on par with the Southwest but high for the Northeast; it went from 8.5% Hispanic to 12.4%, and Providence moved to a Hispanic plurality.
| District | Rep. | Population | Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|
| RI-01 | Cicilline (D) | 519,021 | (7,263) |
| RI-02 | Langevin (D) | 533,546 | 7,263 |
| Total: | 1,052,567 |
South Carolina is gaining one seat to move from six to seven; its new target based on 7 seats is 660,766 (it was 668K in 2000, so every district gained significantly over the decade). With the GOP holding the trifecta and much of the growth seeming to come among white retirees, look for the creation of one more Republican-friendly seat… with one possible wild card, that the Obama DOJ might weigh in and push for a second African-American VRA seat (theoretically possible if terribly ugly, as SSP’s crack team of freelance mapmakers have shown here). The biggest growth has come in the coastal Low Country, rather than the fiercely evangelical uplands; I’d expect Charleston and Myrtle Beach, both part of SC-01 for now, to wind up each anchoring their own districts.
| District | Rep. | Population | Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC-01 | Scott (R) | 856,956 | 196,190 |
| SC-02 | Wilson (R) | 825,324 | 164,558 |
| SC-03 | Duncan (R) | 722,675 | 61,909 |
| SC-04 | Gowdy (R) | 770,226 | 109,460 |
| SC-05 | Mulvaney (R) | 767,773 | 107,007 |
| SC-06 | Clyburn (D) | 682,410 | 21,644 |
| Total: | 4,625,364 |
West Virginia is staying at three seats for now, although it might be headed for two seats in 2020, given its slow growth and low targets; its target is 617,665, only up from 603K in 2000. The 3rd, in coal country in the southern part of the state, is losing population (though not as fast as one might suspect); the 2nd needs to shed an amount equivalent to what the 3rd needs to gain, leaving the 1st pretty stable. Much of the state’s growth is in the far east tip of the Panhandle (in the 2nd), especially Berkeley County, which serves as Washington DC’s furthest-out exurbs. Dave Wasserman, who seems to get all the good redistricting-related gossip, says that while the obvious solution (moving Mason County from the 2nd to the 3rd, and calling it a wrap) still seems likely, the Dems who control the redistricting trifecta might want to cobble together a slightly Dem-friendlier 1st along the state’s northern boundary that includes both Morgantown and the Panhandle exurbs (the only counties in the state that are getting bluer).
| District | Rep. | Population | Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|
| WV-01 | McKinley (R) | 615,991 | (1,674) |
| WV-02 | Capito (R) | 648,186 | 30,521 |
| WV-03 | Rahall (D) | 588,817 | (28,848) |
| Total: | 1,852,994 |
If the DOJ is even toying with the idea of pushing for a second VRA seat in Virginia or Louisiana, as rumor has it, then I think there’s no doubt they will do so in the case of South Carolina.
Might I add, there was nothing “terribly ugly” in my view about the serious 2-VRA-seat maps that I recall from a couple months ago when this was a hot topic. I do recall one absurd map, but that person seemed to be terribly confused about South Carolina demographics.
Of course, the actual Census data might not make two VRA seats work out quite as smoothly, then again maybe it’ll make them easier to draw even more compactly than the maps that were based on projected data. I guess we’ll know soon enough!
They’re about to get passed up by Montana, which only has 63K less people than Rhode Island. If Montana picks it up quite a bit it could conceivably gain back the 2nd seat it lost 20 years ago.
Here’s my WV plan
I designed it so that Oliverio would win a rematch with McKinley in CD1.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-4gtq…
beautiful gerrymander of Louisiana with three 50 + percent black seats, which can be done.
As for right now, I think there is no reason the Obama DoJ shouldn’t force Jindal and the Republican state legislature to make 2 black majority seats. The black population is about 40% of the states total population, yet is project to have only one of 6 seats.
It really doesn’t look too ugly, surprisingly it is much more difficult now and much uglier to make a New Orleans based VRA black majority seat.
LA-05, (Yellow), Takes in the black areas of Baton Rouge, Hammond, Washington Parish, as well as West and East Feliciana parishes, parts of northern Lafayette Parish, including Carencro and other heavily black areas, St. Landry parish, including Opelousas, Parts of Evangeline, all of Concordia, (which would actually have a rather conservative lean), eastern half of Rapides, including all of Pineville-Alexandria, then up along the delta counties before pulling inward to take in downtown Monroe Richland. 54.6% AA
LA-01: Just a snake of a district trying to get in the diverse areas of south LA. 50.4% AA, thought only 37% white, and a sizable portion of that being white NOLA liberals.
Both LA-01 and LA-05 would be reasonably safe districts for Democrats. The rest of the state wouldn’t even be mildly competitive. Bill Cassidy is drawn in with Jeff Landry, Charles Boustany keeps the southern core of his district, but gains a great deal of non-cajun territory in North Louisiana to correct population losses, and Fleming and Alexander end up tossed together in one big North Louisiana district. Depending on how nasty the primary is, and how black turnout is, this LA-03 could be the Democrats best other hope for a pick up in 2012. Still a long shot.
No major surprises and I expect the rumoured swap of one county to happen in WV. Rahall has the mojo and Capito seems unmoveable in her seat. That’s my guess.
I am a bit leery of the second VRA CD for SC idea. There seems several barriers to that but one never knows.
1. The 50% VAP barrier for AA’s seem rather high.
2. Previous court rulings set a pretty high standard for the creation of VRA seats as “racial gerrymanders” are not required. If I can see a map with two seats with 50%VAP with no towns or counties divided only racial lines then I might feel differently. Right now its hard to get to one seat in SC to 50% AA VAP without splitting counties so getting to two seems quite hard. I do think, however, beyond a doubt that the GOP will perserve Clyburn’s seat a they would be fearful of a retrogression claim.
seats with such a low population? Louisiana had an average at something like 655,000 with 7 seats, but its losing one to 6.
Um what in the world are Arkansas Democrats doing? I hope this is not a sign of things to come.