Yeah, here’s another Minnesota redistricting…
My 7 seat map can be found here.
I did none of this with a computer program or anything like that. i was fortunate that MN provides all the info I needed to do this with the MnSOS office providing all the vote totals and also precinct maps of every state house seat, which was the main way I broke down the districts by vote and population when I didnt need to break it down to city/township/precinct level. The state legislature websites has excellent maps with the two I used constantly were a map of the all the state house seats that also showed city boundaries which made it my go to map for figuring out my planned geography. More importantly though, a precinct map of the entire state showing election results from dark red to dark blue. I found county population totals for 2007 and when they broke down beyond that point, I wikipediad it which sometimes included 2006 estimates but mainly for 2000 totals and then I used common sense for population movements, figured out the percentage of growth for that county/area, etc to figure out the 2007 population of said city/precinct. There is certainly some error involved in this but nothing that would alter more than a couple precincts here or there and then my map accounts for current population movement as opposed to 2000, little bit of a trade off there.
Everything is recorded in excel spreadsheets, they look like a hot mess.
map with county lines can be found here
My CD4 is quite a gerrymander but none of that is essential to district make up. This map could easily be changed to provide nice clean lines but I wanted to pack Dems and Reps to see what the best case scenarios could be. Undoing any gerrymanders would still result in my intended goals.
This is map is either a 7/1 or 6/2 map. Bachmann can’t win her district but a more moderate Republican possibly could. And Kline is now uber safe. Paulsen is drawn out of his district and could possibly run there, but you’ll see later that the Obama margin for victory there is Philly/Chicago suburb like and he’d probably not bother moving. 7/1 at the best 6/2 at worst.
As for the tables, the first 08 is the new Obama vs McCain percentage for each of my districts, second 08 is what the current district got. And then the following years are what the current districts got as well with them being the three-way vote. Then next is population and what each county got in 08 and 04.
MN-1 Rep. Walz | Pop. | 2008 | 2008 | 2004 | 2004 |
Total | 651557 | 50/45.5 | 51/47 | 48/52 | 47/51 |
Pop. | Obama | McCain | Kerry | Bush | |
Houston County | 19515 | 54 | 44 | 48 | 51 |
Winona County | 49802 | 58 | 39 | 52 | 46 |
Watonwan County | 11022 | 49 | 48 | 45 | 53 |
Steele County | 36378 | 46 | 51 | 56 | 43 |
Dodge County | 19552 | 44 | 54 | 42 | 57 |
Wabasha County | 21783 | 47 | 50 | 47 | 52 |
Olmsted County | 76470 | 51 | 47 | 47 | 52 |
Mower County | 38040 | 60 | 37 | 61 | 38 |
Freeborn County | 31257 | 57 | 41 | 55 | 44 |
Waseca County | 19528 | 45 | 53 | 43 | 56 |
Blue Earth County | 59802 | 55 | 42 | 48 | 51 |
Nicollet County | 31680 | 54 | 44 | 50 | 49 |
Martin County | 20462 | 41 | 56 | 42 | 57 |
Brown County | 26013 | 43 | 55 | 37 | 61 |
Murray County | 8511 | 49 | 48 | 44 | 54 |
Jackson County | 10883 | 47 | 51 | 46 | 52 |
Cottonwood County | 11349 | 46 | 52 | 43 | 56 |
Nobles County | 20128 | 48 | 50 | 42 | 56 |
Pipestone County | 9305 | 42 | 55 | 38 | 61 |
Rock County | 9498 | 42 | 56 | 39 | 60 |
Faribault County | 14869 | 46 | 51 | 43 | 55 |
Fillmore County | 21037 | 53 | 44 | 49 | 50 |
Lincoln County | 5877 | 49 | 48 | 47 | 52 |
Redwood County | 15519 | 42 | 55 | 38 | 62 |
This district changed very little, it took an extra county here and there but more or less, I didn’t want to change it. Walz is already winning by large margins and he’s an excellent fit for the district.
MN-2 Rep. Kline | Pop. | 2008 | 2008 | 2004 | 2004 |
Total | 651855 | 40/58 | 48/50 | 38/60.5 | 45/54 |
Pop. | Obama | McCain | Kerry | Bush | |
Wright County | 117372 | 40 | 58 | 38 | 61 |
Scott County | 62113 | 39 | 59 | 37.5 | 61.5 |
Carver County | 88459 | 41.5 | 57 | 36 | 63 |
Dakota County | 38718 | 44 | 54 | 39 | 60 |
Sherburne County | 86287 | 39 | 58 | 39 | 60 |
Stearns County | 86586 | 40 | 55 | 40 | 58 |
Benton County | 5881 | 36 | 61 | 36 | 63 |
Hennepin County | 72869 | 37 | 62 | 37 | 61 |
Anoka County | 54649 | 40 | 58 | 40 | 59 |
Isanti County | 38921 | 41 | 56 | 41 | 58 |
I decided to tie all the conservative exurban areas together along with Republican suburbs, putting all the republican counties into one congressional district instead of spread across two. This makes it mainly a combination of CD2 and CD6, and takes out the main Republican-fundy base of Bachmann’s district. It takes out the counties around the St. Cloud area, minus St. Cloud, keeps the former second’s GOP base of Carver and Scott county in the southwest (minus some of the suburbs that were 50/50’ish for Obama), also heavily conservative Wright county from CD6, and I threw in Isanti county from CD8 to shore up the GOP into one CD. The district has a bit of a propeller as I need to pick up more population and those 4 townships in Benton were the most GOP areas to connect to CD2. Kline lives in the portion of Dakota county that it includes and will be 100% safe in this district. However, Bachmann will be looking for a seat as well. More on that later.
MN-3 OPEN | Pop. | 2008 | 2008 | 2004 | 2004 |
Total | 650300 | 57/41 | 52/46 | 53/46.5 | 48/51 |
Pop. | Obama | McCain | Kerry | Bush | |
Hennepin County | 487008 | 58 | 40.5 | 54 | 46 |
Anoka County | 163292 | 53 | 43 | 51 | 48 |
This district shifts east and north as I cut out some of the traditional upper-to-upper middle class suburbs to take in more working class suburbs bordering Minneapolis to the west and north. Eden Prairie, Bloomington, and most of Edina now are in CD5 (I kept some of Edina in CD3 for population and gerrymandering as some precincts went 2-1 for Obama while the city as a whole went about 55-45.) The district then picked up Hopkins, Golden Valley, St. Louis Park, Fridley, Columbia Heights, and a few others in that area. These areas also have a much higher proportion of minority voters so the district gets a bit less white and without Edina and Eden Prarie, probably drops pretty far in average income.
Paulsen lives in Eden Prairie so technically this district is open. He could move to run here which he may to give it a shot but it voted for Obama by 16%, an increase of 10% from the current district lines. We have a HUGE bench in this district to make that happen as there are roughly 25 state reps and senators per CD and the GOP only has about 6-7 of those seats in this CD. I want to give Paulsen somewhat of a chance of retaining this seat (PA6, IL10) but I really dont know how he could.
Please tell me someone watched Mighty Ducks recently and these cities all sound familiar…. Cake eater is from Edina, Goldburg I believe is Bloomington.
MN-4 Rep. McCollum | Pop. | 2008 | 2008 | 2004 | 2004 |
Total | 651475 | 61/38 | 64/34 | 58.5/40 | 62/37 |
Pop. | Obama | McCain | Kerry | Bush | |
Ramsey County | 468147 | 66 | 31.5 | 63.5 | 35 |
Washington County | 79263 | 47 | 51 | 44.5 | 55 |
Anoka County | 104065 | 43 | 55 | 42 | 57 |
This is the district I gerrymandered the most as I wanted to pack as many Democrats into CD6 as possible. The northern part of the district is represented by Anoka County exurbs that vote 2-1 GOP in some parts and the north third of Washington County which is exurban but not quite as Republican, maybe 60-40 at worst. There really isn’t even much population up there as the main source is Ramsey county, which gets a little bit cut up. The three blobs of gerrymander are as follows. The main one is St. Paul, to the east, the district picks up the Republican precincts of Woodbury and then in the south it picks up Inver Grove Heights, a swingy suburb. Safe for McCollum still.
MN-5 Rep. Ellison | Pop. | 2008 | 2008 | 2004 | 2004 |
Total | 647577 | 69/29 | 74/24 | 65/33 | 71/28 |
Pop. | Obama | McCain | Kerry | Bush | |
Hennepin County | 583048 | 71 | 27 | 67 | 31 |
Scott County | 64259 | 48 | 50 | 42 | 57 |
As said previously, this district now picks up the south/southwest burbs in exchange for the very liberal first ring suburbs. All the suburbs have been trending D quite rapidly and most voted for Obama. The suburbs in Hennepin county, Edina, Eden Prairie, and Bloomington have trended pretty quickly while the two suburbs in Scott County, Shakopee and Savage, were once brutally Republican but population growth has exploded here and has brought them to suburban voting trends instead of exurban voting trends. This is still extremely safe for Ellison.
MN-6 OPEN | Pop. | 2008 | 2008 | 2004 | 2004 |
Total | 648958 | 53/45 | 45/53 | 49.5/49.3 | 42/57 |
Pop. | Obama | McCain | Kerry | Bush | |
Washington County | 181743 | 54 | 44 | 49.5 | 49.4 |
Dakota County | 327677 | 52 | 45.5 | 49 | 50 |
Ramsey County | 31744 | 59 | 39 | 57 | 42 |
Goodhue County | 45839 | 48 | 50 | 47 | 51 |
Rice County | 17381 | 55 | 43 | 53 | 45 |
This is where I began this project as the main goal was how to get rid of Bachmann and make a Dem district. It starts up in Washington county, takes in the Dem areas like Oakdale and Stillwater, cuts into Ramsey county to take in Maplewood, and then includes most of Dakota county where the northern portion is heavily populated suburbs that have heavily trended Democratic (hold all but one state house seat, which we picked up in 06 but lost in 08) while the rest of the county is townships and Republicanism. It takes in swing Goodhue county and blue Rice county, where the colleges of Carleton and St. Olaf rack up margins for the Dems. (Not to be confused with the St. Olaf Rose from Golden Girls is from, there is a St. Olaf township up north in Otter Tail county.)
Bachmann may no longer live in this district as I may have put her in CD4. I know she recently moved to Woodbury, which is the city I gerrymandered. So not sure which part of Woodbury carries that witch but regardless, she wouldn’t be a viable candidate in either CD. I figure her and Kline could have an excellent face off in CD2 in an endorsement and primary. Both have large constituencies in that district, almost 50/50, with maybe a slight edge to Bachmann in amount of former district. So I’d consider this an open seat and it is a total swing district so it could go either Democrat or Republican, with the Dems being a slight favorite, especially in 2012 if Obama can manage another 8% win here.
I first had this district extremely gerrymandered to take in more Democrats but I decided to strengthen the Dems in CD3 in exchange for this CD as there is no way Bachmann can win this district, regardless. Here is a map of what I had before.
MN-7 Rep. Peterson | Pop. | 2008 | 2008 | 2004 | 2004 |
Total | 648519 | 47/50 | 47/50 | 43/55.5 | 43/55.4 |
Pop. | Obama | McCain | Kerry | Bush | |
Kittson County | 4505 | 58 | 40 | 50 | 49 |
Traverse County | 3712 | 51 | 46 | 48 | 50 |
Stevens County | 9624 | 49 | 48 | 47 | 51 |
Swift County | 11192 | 55 | 42 | 55 | 43 |
Todd County | 24029 | 43 | 54 | 41 | 57 |
Yellow Medicine County | 10000 | 51 | 46 | 49 | 50 |
Lake of the Woods County | 4095 | 42 | 60 | 38 | 60 |
Marshall County | 9618 | 49 | 48 | 42 | 57 |
Becker County | 31964 | 45 | 52 | 40 | 58 |
Polk County | 30708 | 51 | 47 | 43 | 56 |
Pope County | 11065 | 51 | 47 | 49 | 49 |
Clearwater County | 8245 | 44 | 54 | 43 | 56 |
Red Lake County | 4118 | 51 | 45 | 44 | 54 |
Mahnomen County | 5129 | 61 | 36 | 53 | 45 |
Pennington County | 13756 | 50 | 48 | 44 | 54 |
Clay County | 54835 | 57 | 41 | 47 | 52 |
Otter Tail County | 57031 | 42 | 55 | 37 | 61 |
Douglas County | 36075 | 44 | 54 | 44 | 54 |
Grant County | 6021 | 51 | 46 | 49 | 50 |
Big Stone County | 5385 | 52 | 46 | 50 | 48 |
Lac qui Parle County | 7258 | 52 | 46 | 53 | 46 |
Renville County | 16132 | 48 | 49 | 45 | 53 |
Lyon County | 24695 | 48 | 50 | 42 | 57 |
Beltrami County | 43609 | 54 | 44 | 50 | 48 |
Roseau County | 15946 | 40 | 58 | 31 | 68 |
Chippewa County | 12465 | 52 | 46 | 52 | 47 |
Wilkin County | 6418 | 45 | 52 | 33 | 65 |
Sibley County | 15007 | 45 | 52 | 39 | 59 |
McLeod County | 37220 | 38 | 58 | 37 | 62 |
Meeker County | 23211 | 43 | 54 | 43 | 56 |
Kandiyohi County | 40784 | 46 | 52 | 44 | 55 |
Norman County | 6685 | 62 | 35 | 47 | 51 |
Hubbard County | 18376 | 42 | 56 | 42 | 57 |
Wadena County | 13382 | 40 | 58 | 39 | 59 |
Le Seur County | 28034 | 47 | 51 | 45 | 54 |
Stearns County | 7785 | 36 | 62 | 35.5 | 63 |
I left CD7 pretty much alone. It’s GOP leaning and always will be, but the DFL is still quite powerful in most of the areas at the local level and it currently has a DFL incumbent, whose got a good decade if not more left until we should expect retirement.
MN-8 Rep. Oberstar | Pop. | 2008 | 2008 | 2004 | 2004 |
Total | 649780 | 54/44 | 53/45 | 53/45 | 53/46 |
Pop. | Obama | McCain | Kerry | Bush | |
Cook County | 5398 | 60 | 37 | 53 | 45 |
Lake County | 10741 | 60 | 38 | 60 | 39 |
St. Louis County | 200528 | 65 | 33 | 65 | 34 |
Carlton County | 33893 | 62 | 35 | 63 | 36 |
Pine County | 228164 | 49 | 48 | 50 | 49 |
Koochiching County | 13459 | 54 | 44 | 50 | 48 |
Itasca County | 44542 | 55 | 42 | 55 | 44 |
Cass County | 28723 | 45 | 53 | 43 | 56 |
Crow Wing County | 61648 | 45 | 53 | 42 | 57 |
Morrison County | 32733 | 39 | 58 | 41 | 58 |
Mille Lacs County | 26354 | 45 | 52 | 43 | 55 |
Kanabec County | 16090 | 44 | 53 | 44 | 55 |
Aitkin County | 15910 | 48.7 | 48.8 | 48 | 51 |
Chisago County | 50128 | 44 | 54 | 43 | 56 |
Benton County | 33623 | 45 | 52 | 45 | 53 |
Stearns County | 51680 | 53 | 45 | 51 | 48 |
My biggest question was, what should I do with St. Cloud? It’s literally in the middle of extremely conservative Stearns, Benton, and Sherburne counties, it’s Dem but the vote margin is only 2,000, thus not making it worth much in votes considering the county I’d have to attach with it. Benton county provided the smallest GOP margin and CD8 always goes Dem if by a smallish margin at the presidential, so I decided to include it here. By adding this and eliminating Isanti county, it does get a nice Dem bump. Oberstar is safe until retirement and then it will still be safe DFL when open.
Very well done, as usual.
I would rather see MN-05 weakened some more and MN-06 strengthened; there are too many DFL votes wasted in Ellison’s district.
A few other things:
1) The link to your 7-district map didn’t work.
2) I don’t like calling even Bachmann a “witch.” That doesn’t add anything.
I expect that, if such a map were actually considered, CD-4 would be smoothed out.
Good work with Paulsen’s district. I guess it helps that Hennepin County is so blue that one can put Paulsen on ice without weakening Ellison.