(From the diaries – promoted by DavidNYC)
Redistricting is popular around here, so I really don’t need to explain this any more. Here’s a plan for Nevada that’s 3-1. I wanted to protect Berkley and Titus, and create a 3rd Democratic district.
I crunched population data by census block for Clark County into precincts, and by census VTDs for Douglas, Lyon, and Nye Counties.
So here’s the map:
Data (both political and population) after the flip.
Here’s are closeups of Douglas and Clark/Southern Nye Counties:
And closeups of the Las Vegas area, the first with precincts and the second with incorporated cities and CDPs labelled.
| County | 2010 Pop | Obama | McCain | Total | Obama% | McCain% |
| 1st | 670,860 | 129,024 | 73,473 | 206,859 | 62.40% | 35.53% |
| Clark | 670,860 | 129,024 | 73,473 | 206,859 | 62.40% | 35.53% |
The 1st (in red), this was designed to be Shelley Berkley’s. It captures a big chunk of Las Vegas, with parts of North Las Vegas, Paradise, Enterprise, and the majority of Spring Valley. At 62.4% Obama, not much has changed, about, only down a point or two. McCarran Airport and the Strip are in this district.
| County | 2010 Pop | Obama | McCain | Total | Obama% | McCain% |
| 2nd | 670,894 | 148,278 | 105,987 | 259,926 | 57.06% | 40.78% |
| Carson City | 54,952 | 11,623 | 11,419 | 23,680 | 49.08% | 48.22% |
| Clark | 161,041 | 31,008 | 9,668 | 41,413 | 74.98% | 23.38% |
| Douglas | 18,566 | 4,031 | 4,894 | 9,127 | 44.17% | 53.62% |
| Esmeralda | 631 | 104 | 303 | 439 | 23.69% | 69.02% |
| Lyon | 4,809 | 463 | 1,223 | 1,732 | 26.73% | 70.61% |
| Mineral | 4,575 | 1,082 | 1,131 | 2,307 | 46.90% | 49.02% |
| Nye | 3,452 | 296 | 469 | 814 | 36.36% | 57.62% |
| Washoe | 422,868 | 99,671 | 76,880 | 180,414 | 55.25% | 42.61% |
This is the new Washoe-Clark district, in green. Starting in Washoe, it goes south, taking in as Lyon and Nye Counties as possible. It also takes in the better part of Douglas County and what it needs to connect to the south (44% Obama compared to 40% in the remainder). This district then goes into Clark County, taking the most Democratic precincts possible (74% Obama), including the majority-African-American parts of North Las Vegas (24% of the Clark part is Black). This district is 63% Washoe and another 24% more Clark, making for a 57% Obama district. This should be winnable for a Democrat, especially one from Washoe/Douglas like Jill Derby (who likely lives in this district, or just a bit outside it).
| County | 2010 Pop | Obama | McCain | Total | Obama% | McCain% |
| 3rd | 670,842 | 120,321 | 67,581 | 192,355 | 62.56% | 35.14% |
| Clark | 670,842 | 120,321 | 67,581 | 192,355 | 62.56% | 35.14% |
This is Dina Titus’ district, in blue. It retains most of the population of Henderson and other suburbs of Las Vegas, like the vast majority of Sunrise Manor, and Paradise (not including the part with the Strip though). At 62.56% Obama, this is up 7%. This should set this district firmly out of reach for any comeback attempt by Jon Porter (or for any Republican, really).
| County | 2010 Pop | Obama | McCain | Total | Obama% | McCain% |
| 4th | 670,832 | 133,939 | 164,642 | 305,560 | 43.84% | 53.89% |
| Churchill | 25,147 | 3,494 | 6,832 | 10,605 | 32.95% | 64.42% |
| Clark | 425,579 | 98,318 | 105,326 | 207,592 | 47.38% | 50.75% |
| Douglas | 26,336 | 6,641 | 9,754 | 16,777 | 39.58% | 58.14% |
| Elko | 48,011 | 4,541 | 10,969 | 16,019 | 28.35% | 68.47% |
| Eureka | 1,775 | 144 | 564 | 745 | 19.33% | 75.70% |
| Humboldt | 18,306 | 1,909 | 3,586 | 5,664 | 33.70% | 63.31% |
| Lander | 5,140 | 577 | 1,466 | 2,102 | 27.45% | 69.74% |
| Lincoln | 5,260 | 518 | 1,498 | 2,107 | 24.58% | 71.10% |
| Lyon | 50,239 | 7,934 | 10,927 | 19,359 | 40.98% | 56.44% |
| Nye | 44,835 | 6,858 | 8,958 | 16,494 | 41.58% | 54.31% |
| Pershing | 6,212 | 673 | 1,075 | 1,836 | 36.66% | 58.55% |
| Storey | 4,638 | 1,102 | 1,247 | 2,418 | 45.57% | 51.57% |
| White Pine | 9,354 | 1,230 | 2,440 | 3,842 | 32.01% | 63.51% |
All the Republicans have to go somewhere, and this is where they go. Taking in the remaining parts of Clark County (mostly empty desert except for the western parts of Las Vegas proper), this district grabs most of Nye, Eastern Douglas, and Northern Lyon counties and the remaining counties. Clark does still make up 63% of the district though. Perhaps in a testament to how much Clark County has changed, the Clark part is still 47% Obama. Overall, it’s 43.84% Obama. 4-0 would have been doable, but pushing it, in my mind.
I think the 4th district resembles NV about 15 years ago.
except you could actually make Titus’ district more Democratic by removing much of northern Washoe and some of the highly white, affluent suburbs.
Where did you get the precinct by precinct electoral data and how did you ever manage to use it all, and thirdly, what software did you use?
Sorrry for all the questions, its just that Dave’ssoftware is great, convienent, easy to use, quick, but flawed in lack of political data, it would be even nicer if you had options like ‘Color this ethnic minority this, and color this candididate’s winning areas this’ especially when dealing with huge intertwining cities and counties like in Florida and Texas and even North Carolina.
A lot like what I drew. The difficulty with getting 3-1 is that, to give Heller the GOP-leaning seat, you need to cut Carson City just right to create the other Dem-leaning Reno-to-Vegas seat. But you did with that pretty much exactly what I did.
What I do not understand is why we have two plus 27 districts and one plus seventeen and one minus ten. Is it that improbable to create three plus fifteen which is plenty safe and one almost dead even where we can win with a strong nominee?
It’s similar to what I drew, but better in some ways. You rightly anchored the new 3rd (or whatever that new Dem seat would be) in the northern Clark precincts, whereas I chose Henderson and Boulder City, which may depress the numbers. I also took less of Douglas and Lyon, but after seeing the Obama percentages, that might make a wash. That said, no reason to go north of Reno (the closeups on Washoe don’t show how far north in the county the 3rd is supposed to go. Furthermore, Carson City just isn’t worth it. I suppose if we knew his exact subdivision, it would be okay, since we could cut out Heller, but, as it is, he faces some yet-to-be-determined Washoe/Clark Dem if we keep Carson City in.