Redistricting Map for New Jersey

I drew this map assuming New Jersey will lose a congressional district. I tried to create 10 Democratic districts and 2 heavily Republican districts. I think at least 2 of the Democratic districts are shaky but the other 8 should hold fine. What I did was eliminate two Republicans, create a new Democratic district and strengthen Obama’s percentage in the 2nd district held by Frank LoBiondo. I did not want to go all out and try for an 11-1 Democratic delegation. My first priority was to strengthen shaky Democrats. The next map I will do will be either Georgia or Louisiana. I have not completely decided yet. I am also starting work on a Minnesota map. That is why I put a poll here to see which one you want me to do first. Safe Democrat/Republican means that the incumbent party solidly has a hold on that district. Likely Democrat/Republican means that the district appears solid but could become competitive. Lean Democrat/Republican means that the district is competitive but one party has a lead. Toss Up means the district is 50-50. With a tilt, it means that the party it tilts to has a 55%-60% chance of winning. You can view the maps at http://frogandturtle.blogspot….

District 1: Rob Andrews (D) (Blue)

This district goes far out of the former area. It takes in Salem and parts of Cape May and Cumberland Counties. I gave it all of Gloucester but took out a lot of Camden County. I kept in Camden and some other heavily Democratic towns to keep it safe for Andrews. Obama probably won around 60% of the vote here. The district contains Gloucester County and parts of Camden, Cape May and Cumberland Counties. The stats are 17% Black and 14% Hispanic with a 66% white population. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 2 Frank LoBiondo (R) (Green)

By taking out most of Cape May and adding part of Camden County, I hope I gave LoBiondo enough Democrats to be kicked out. I kept his home in this district so he would not be inclined to run against Rob Andrews and give him a tough race. I do not know who the challenger to Frank LoBiondo would be but I am sure the Democrats in Camden can find someone. I intended to make this district Democratic enough to throw out LoBiondo. The district contains Atlantic County and parts of Burlington, Camden, Cumberland, Cape May and Ocean Counties. I estimate that Obama won it with about 55% to 59% of the vote. The stats are 13% African American, 9% Hispanic and 73% White. Status is Toss Up if Lo Biondo runs, Lean Democrat if he bails out.

District 3 John Adler (D) (Purple)

Since he is a freshman Congressman who barely won in this district, my first priority was to protect him. I removed all of Ocean County from this district. I added part of Trenton and Mercer County which I estimate gives him an extra 15,000 to 20,000 vote margin for Obama. The margin for Obama in Burlington County is about 55,000 votes and Cherry Hill in Camden gave Obama a 10,000 vote margin. Even though I had to put a bit of Monmouth County in for population purposes, it should take more than 15,000 votes away from Adler. The district contains parts of Burlington, Camden, Monmouth and Mercer Counties. I estimate that Obama won here between 59% and 63% of the vote. The stats are 14% Black, 9% Hispanic and 69% White.  Status is Safe Democrat.

District 4 Chris Smith (R) (Red)

As much as I dislike Chris Smith, I decided to give him a safe Republican district. He was elected the same day Reagan was elected so I figured wherever I put him, he would hold his roots. I gave him most of Ocean County and southern Monmouth County, excluding Democratic precincts in Neptune and Asbury Park. I created this district to pack in all the Republicans so I could make the 2nd, 3rd, 6th and 7th more Democratic. The district contains parts of Ocean and Monmouth Counties. The stats for this district are 7% Hispanic and 85% White. McCain probably won this area with a margin between 56% and 60%. Status is Safe Republican.

District 5 Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) vs. Leonard Lance (R) vs. Scott Garrett (R) (Yellow)

Now wasn’t that a good idea to put three Republicans in the same district? There is no question that a Republican will win this district. It contains all of Sussex and Warren Counties with parts of Bergen, Hunterdon, Morris and Somerset Counties. McCain probably won this with 57% to 61%. The question is which Republican will win it? It looks pretty masterful, sticking all these Republicans in the same district. Both Lance and Frelinghuysen are moderates. My biggest worry is that Frelinghuysen will run in the 11th district which I created for a Democrat. With his moderate voting record, Frelinghuysen could win it if he faces weak opposition. If Lance and Frelinghuysen faced off, I think Frelinghuysen would win because he is more entrenched in his district and he has more of it in District 5 than Lance does. Garrett’s old district only contains Sussex and Warren Counties. That could be enough to win. The district contains Sussex and Warren Counties as well as parts of Bergen, Hunterdon, Morris, Passaic and Somerset counties. The stats are 86% White. Status is Safe Republican.

District 6 Frank Pallone (D) (Teal)

I had to remove some heavily Democratic areas such as Plainfield and part of New Brunswick mostly to strengthen the 7th and the 11th districts. Still, I kept enough Democratic areas in to keep the district strongly Democratic. Even though a lot of the district is in Monmouth County, I gave it Democratic areas like Neptune and Asbury Park. Since Pallone has been a Congressman here for awhile, he should be safe. I estimate that Obama won this district with about 58% to 61% of the vote. The district contains parts of Monmouth and Middlesex Counties. The racial stats for this district are 9% Black, 12% Hispanic, 13% Asian and 64% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 7 Rush Holt (D) (Gray)

Yes, this district looks very safe for Rush Holt. Maybe I went a little too far to protect him, giving him parts of New Brunswick and Plainfield, heavily Democratic areas. I just wanted to protect him enough to make sure Lance decides not to run against him. I think Holt can handle himself but Lance is a pretty strong competitor. Lance won by 8 points in an open seat race in 2008. He ran in the 7th district and Obama won it. I think half of Trenton and the heavily Democratic areas in Middlesex and Plainfield should keep Holt safe. The district contains parts of Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset and Union Counties. I estimate that Obama won this district with about 57% to 62% of the vote. The stats are 16% Black, 14% Asian, 13% Hispanic and 56% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 8 Bill Pascrell (D) (Light Purple)

I’d like to tell Bill that I am sorry I had to push his district so far out into the not-so Democratic western Bergen County. Still, he should be fine in his district containing all of heavily Democratic Paterson and some other Democratic cities like Passaic. That portion of the county probably voted for Obama somewhere in the neighborhood of 50,000 votes. The Bergen County portion should not be more than 20,000 votes at the highest for McCain. This leaves Pascrell with a district that voted about 57% for Obama. This should be safe unless Scott Garrett surprisingly jumps into the race. That probably should not happen so it looks like Pascrell is safe for now. The district contains parts of Bergen, Essex and Passaic Counties. The racial stats for the district are 8% Black, 26% Hispanic, 7% Asian and 58% White. Status is Likely Democratic.

District 9 Steve Rotham (D) (Bright Blue)

Even though I extended his district far out to the New York border, I think Democratic margins in Hackensack and other Democratic areas will counter the Republican margins by a lot of votes. I think Obama won this district with 59% of the vote but I am not completely sure. This district should be safe for Steve Rotham. It contains parts of Bergen, Essex and Hudson Counties. The stats are 7% Black, 21% Hispanic, 16% Asian and 55% White. Status is Safe Democrat

District 10 Donald Payne (D) (Dark Pink)

I believe he is the safest Democrat in NJ. It was hard for me to keep it majority Black and I barely did. I wish I could give more of this district to strengthen the 8th and 11th but I could not because of the Voting Rights Act. It says that the 10th district will not be protected if it has less than a majority of a certain minority. I virtually tried to keep it the same as it is now. I estimate that Obama won here somewhere in the 85% range. The district contains parts of Essex, Hudson and Union Counties. The stats are 50% African American, 19% Hispanic, 5% Asian and 24% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 11 No Incumbent (Light Green)

My biggest fear is that Frelinghuysen will run in this district to prevent a challenging primary in the 5th. I tried to make the district as Democratic as possible and I removed Frelinghuysen’s home from it to discourage him from running here. I was careful to put in towns like Dover and Morristown which are heavily Democratic towns in Morris County. I also slipped this district into Essex County to take in areas that the 10th district did not contain. Even though the 10th contains all the heavily Democratic areas in Essex County, I still found room for some in the 11th district. I also extended it into Union County to take in the moderate suburbs of Westfield and Summit. Obama won them each by about 10 points. I was able to get part of heavily Democratic Plainfield into this district. It should be safe enough for a Democrat. The district contains parts of Essex, Middlesex, Morris, Somerset and Union Counties. I think that Obama won with 54%-56% of the vote here. The racial stats are 9% Black, 9% Asian, 11% Hispanic and 71% White. Status is Toss up/Tilt Democratic if Frelinghuysen runs. Status is Likely Democrat if Frelinghuysen does not run here.

District 12 Albio Sires (D) (Light Blue)

I designed this district to be a Hispanic majority district. I just barely succeeded. Still, Sires should be safe from a primary challenge from a non Hispanic candidate. This is a pretty long and thin district. It stretches from Perth Amboy in Middlesex County and goes up to the Hudson/Bergen County border. The district contains parts of Essex, Hudson, Middlesex and Union Counties. I estimate that Obama won here with about 74% of the vote. The racial stats are 9% Black, 7% Asian, 50.0% Hispanic and 33% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

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