This is my first diary, so please excuse my formatting and other technical ineptitudes. I have maps, so if someone can tell me in the comments how to add them, I will add them.
I wanted to gerrymander Ohio (using Dave’s Redistricting App) for the likely 16 districts it will have after the 2010 census with the following goals in mind:
1) Make sure Republicans lose both seats lost to redistricting
2) Create(or maintain) strong Democratic districts in Southern Ohio in Cincinnati and Dayton
3) Eliminate Steve Latourette
4) Keep Ohio’s major cities and counties as intact as possible.
With that in mind, the following gerrymander would potentially create a 12-4 democratic split in Ohio (maybe even 13-3).
Southwest Ohio
District 1 (Royal Blue)- Steve Driehaus should love this new district as it now falls completely within Hamilton County and excludes the parts of more conservative Butler county were harder for him to win. Although his home actually falls just outside of the district boundaries as drawn, the map could be tweaked to include his home while still strengthening the Democratic lean.
District 2 (Forest Green)- This district now becomes a suburban Cincinnati district, including Warren and Butler counties and parts of Hamilton and Clermont. Although it is regionally much more compact, this district should still be one of three slam dunk Republican districts.
District 3 (Purple)- The new shape of this district should help to swing it to the Democratic column. Including all of the urban parts of Montgomery County (Dayton), the suburban parts of Greene county, and Springfield in Clark county, Mike Turner’s days would be numbered.
District 4 (Red)- Another slam dunk Republican district that packs as many uber-red counties into one seat. Now stretches from the Indiana border all the way through Holmes and Knox counties in east-central Ohio. Would be even safer for Jim Jordan
Northwest Ohio
District 5 (Yellow)- This is where things start to get interesting. This is Bob Latta’s district, and it still should stay Republican, but almost by accident, I have made this district significantly more swingy. Giving its far western counties to the 9th in exchange for Sandusky county and big chunks of Lorain county (including Oberlin and Elyria) a moderate populist Democrat could surely compete here. I haven’t yet figured out how to calculate the PVI of this new district…definitely closer to a toss-up than a Republican slam dunk.
District 6 (Teal Blue)- This district did not change very much for Charlie Wilson except that it had to get bigger because of the loss of seats statewide. Adding in the rest of Athens county and Scioto county (Democratic areas) and a bit of Portage county (Republican) should basically leave the district with little change.
Southeast Ohio
District 7 (Grey)- This massive district in central and southern eastern Ohio is really a combination of the old 7th and 18th. Because it still includes most of Zach Space’s old district (Tuscarawas, Muskingum, and Ross counties) as well as the Columbus exurbs, this should be a Democratic hold, although not being able to strengthen Zach Space is definitely one of the weaknesses of this map.
District 8 (Lavender) Just to screw with John Boehner, this district became the catch-all Southern Ohio republican district. Still a deep shade of red, this district now stretches from the Indiana border all the way to Columbus and down to the Ohio River. Making Boehner campaign in 3 media markets (Cincinnati, Columbus, and Dayton) sure would be fun, although this seat is just as safe as his old one.
District 9 (Aqua Blue) In the first of three pissed of Democratic incumbents, Marcy Kaptur probably would not love these changes to her district, although it really does not weaken her Democratic strength too much. Having her pick up the four rural northwest Ohio counties while giving parts of Lorain and Sandusky county to the fifth should allow her to still cruise based on the strength of her base in Lucas county, while giving Democrats a legitimate change to knock of Bob Latta.
Northeast Ohio
District 10 (Hot Pink) Some big changes to Kucinich’s district, although it will remain heavily democratic. In exchange for giving up a bit of his inner city west side of Cleveland territory, Dennis picks up the city of Lorain and the northern part of Elyria in Lorain county. This district makes much more sense than the current lines which have this part of Lorain County lumped in with much more distant Akron (Betty Sutton’s district). Should remain reliably Democratic (if this is what you can call Dennis).
District 11 (Lime Green) This district doesn’t change too much, although it had to get bigger to account for the loss of population in some of these Cleveland suburbs. This district grows a bit further into the west side of Cleveland (to keep it majority-African American) and quite a bit into the eastern suburbs of Cuyahoga and Geauga county. Steven Latourette would now live in this district, although he would have no chance to win it.
District 12 (Powder Blue) The first of the Columbus districts, these lines were changed to take out Delaware county in exchange for the rest of Licking and the rest of Southern Franklin county. This district will remain a swing district, possibly with a slight Republican lean. Hopefully it would give a strong Democratic candidate a chance to knock of Tiberi.
District 13 (Light Pink) In what could be pissed off incumbent Democrat number two, Betty Sutton’s district gets a major facelift, giving up parts of Lorain and Media counties in exchange for all of Summit county and some of the Republican parts of Geauga and Portage counties. Since she lives outside Akron and has her base in Summit county, this should allow her to still get reelected easily, even though the district becomes slightly more Republican. Should still be an easy Democratic hold.
District 14 (Olive Green) This district becomes the battle royale between the old 17th and 14th. Because it includes all of Trumbull county and the city of Youngstown in Mahoning, Ryan should easily be able to end Steve Latourette’s political career (not a moment too soon!) Including the Northeast corner of the state including swingy Lake county, Ryan could really build a political base for a future statewide run from this district.
District 15 (Orange) This district should hopefully strengthen Mary Jo Kilroy by giving her larger portions of Franklin county and the suburban areas of Delaware county. Losing Union and Madison counties takes the most heavily Republican areas out of this district.
District 16 (Bright Green) This district doesn’t change much, but the minor changes should help to strengthen John Boccieri. The district gives up Republican Ashland county while picking up Kent in Portage County (university town) and the Cleveland suburbs in northern Medina county.
Is a tough nut to crack. With a virtually even PVI (R+0), I could see how either party could seek to gerrymander the state to gain seats. Now I don’t see where your map is listed, so I have to go by your explanations as I attempt to imagine how you’ve drawn the lines.
District 1 – This seat is going to be a big battleground in 2010. Driehaus would certainly fare better in a district centered in Hamilton County, which would probably raise the PVI from the current D+1 to about D+3 or D+4. Good play.
District 2 – I’d love to get rid of Jean Schmidt, but it looks like you’ve given her an even safer R district, maybe R+17 or R+18. Warren County in particular is a dead zone for us.
District 3 – I’m wary of your attempt to take out Mike Turner. First off, Montgomery County (Dayton) didn’t move very much in Obama’s direction in November, only about 2 points more D than 2004. Secondly, Clark County actually got more R than 2004. Depending on the way you drew this district it’s probably a toss-up with a nearly even PVI. Furthermore, Mike Turner is very popular in Dayton, and has been ever since his time as mayor. I think he stays even with this map.
District 4 – Pack em in! Pack those wingnuts in!
District 5 – One of the things I’d like to do is turn NW Ohio from the current north/south split to a more east/west split. To my understanding you’ve added Erie County (Sandusky), and parts of Lorain County. That makes 4 D counties in the district, as Sandusky County (Fremont) and Wood County (Bowling Green) went for Obama in 2008. That definitely drops the PVI from R+9 to an R+4 or therabout. You’ve also introduced a regional divide of sorts, which could cause problems for Latta. In the end I think he hangs on but a good Dem challenger would make this VERY interesting.
District 6 – Again, not much change, so Wilson is probably safe. Don’t like the district’s swing toward the R’s though. Probably racism to a degree, it is SE Ohio.
District 7 – Zach Space is a strong representative that is very well liked by his constituency. I think he can win in his region so long as the PVI doesn’t go above R+12 or R+13. Again I’m not sure what the district lines are here exactly, but the current 18th and 7th both have scores of R+7, so Space is probably fine. Austria would probably run against him, but he’s a newbie that doesn’t fit in with SE Ohio politics.
District 8 – Not sure how I feel about a blatant gerrymander resulting in a solidly R district. Not really worth the trouble, but whatever.
District 9 – By the sounds of it you’ve taken out some of Kaptur’s eastern Lake Erie shoreline and given her Williams County (Bryan), Fulton County (Wauseon), Defiance County (Defiance), and Henry County (Napoleon). This NW corner is usually a solidly Republican area, but it took a hard swing to the left in 2008, where Obama was only losing here by 8-13 points. This is good thinking.
District 10 – I dislike Kucinich and his own “party of no”, but I guess he’s better than the alternative. I guess.
District 11 – Fudge is a nice dessert, I must say.
District 12 – I don’t like what you did with the 12th. Currently the 12th and 15th are D+1, but it looks like you gave up Democratic ground here to strengthen Kilroy. Columbus is trending rapidly D, but I think Tiberi would hang on in a swing district. You’d have to plunk him down in a D+5 district to take him out, which would put Kilroy in trouble.
District 13 – By the sound of it, my home would be moving to the 10th district. Didn’t notice that before. Uggh. Oh yeah, Sutton would cruise here, the Akron suburbs love her.
District 14 – This should be priority number 1 for the Dems in redistricting. Latourette’s district is only R+3, and it’s stuck between Ryan’s (D+12) and Fudge’s (D+32!!). By simple geography, Latourette will have to expand into one of them anyway. Good job.
District 15 – Can’t argue with strengthening Kilroy after that overtime victory in November. Just don’t expect to knock off Tiberi if you do.
District 16 – Boccieri is a rising star in the democratic party. Like Space, he could probably take on more Republican ground if needed, but it looks like you gave him a slightly better district instead. Can’t argue with that.
use this: < img src=”” > put the link to the picture inside the quotation marks. then get rid of the spaces so that there isn’t a space between the < and img, then remove the space between the last ” and the >
It sounds like you have some really nice ideas, but I agree that it would be more helpful if you provided a map. the best thing you could do is to upload the picture(s) to a site like Photobucket or flickr. Then, after you have that done, it provides three little lines of text/code for you to embed your pictures. Copy/paste the one(s) that says HTML and add them to the box you’re typing in.
The map that Ohio currently uses makes a lot of sense at this time, and it would be interesting to see how it would ultimately pan out. The biggest problem, for me anyway, has been trying to work NE Ohio because you have all the Obama counties, most of which went by some rather large margins, but then smack dab in the middle, you have Geauga County which was 57% McCain. Can anyone provide any insight to this anomaly?
… to accomplish all of your stated goals AND take out Dennis the Menace at the same time?
District 12 looks pretty Democratic. Moreso than it is now, and as I recall it’s currently like 53-46 Obama. The part of Franklin County that you’ve included are almost all of the African American precints in Columbus. That’s a good thing, of course. I think Tiberi could win it but probably not a Republican successor.
Another point. When I was trying to shore up Boccieri (not sure if he needs it, but I did it anyway) I drew a bit of his district into Akron. It helps him out and it wouldn’t hurt Sutton or Ryan.
I like your third as well. It certainly wouldn’t be too hard to make a Democrat leaning Dayton District.