This is my first diary, so please excuse my formatting and other technical ineptitudes. I have maps, so if someone can tell me in the comments how to add them, I will add them.
I wanted to gerrymander Ohio (using Dave’s Redistricting App) for the likely 16 districts it will have after the 2010 census with the following goals in mind:
1) Make sure Republicans lose both seats lost to redistricting
2) Create(or maintain) strong Democratic districts in Southern Ohio in Cincinnati and Dayton
3) Eliminate Steve Latourette
4) Keep Ohio’s major cities and counties as intact as possible.
With that in mind, the following gerrymander would potentially create a 12-4 democratic split in Ohio (maybe even 13-3).
Southwest Ohio
District 1 (Royal Blue)- Steve Driehaus should love this new district as it now falls completely within Hamilton County and excludes the parts of more conservative Butler county were harder for him to win. Although his home actually falls just outside of the district boundaries as drawn, the map could be tweaked to include his home while still strengthening the Democratic lean.
District 2 (Forest Green)- This district now becomes a suburban Cincinnati district, including Warren and Butler counties and parts of Hamilton and Clermont. Although it is regionally much more compact, this district should still be one of three slam dunk Republican districts.
District 3 (Purple)- The new shape of this district should help to swing it to the Democratic column. Including all of the urban parts of Montgomery County (Dayton), the suburban parts of Greene county, and Springfield in Clark county, Mike Turner’s days would be numbered.
District 4 (Red)- Another slam dunk Republican district that packs as many uber-red counties into one seat. Now stretches from the Indiana border all the way through Holmes and Knox counties in east-central Ohio. Would be even safer for Jim Jordan
Northwest Ohio
District 5 (Yellow)- This is where things start to get interesting. This is Bob Latta’s district, and it still should stay Republican, but almost by accident, I have made this district significantly more swingy. Giving its far western counties to the 9th in exchange for Sandusky county and big chunks of Lorain county (including Oberlin and Elyria) a moderate populist Democrat could surely compete here. I haven’t yet figured out how to calculate the PVI of this new district…definitely closer to a toss-up than a Republican slam dunk.
District 6 (Teal Blue)- This district did not change very much for Charlie Wilson except that it had to get bigger because of the loss of seats statewide. Adding in the rest of Athens county and Scioto county (Democratic areas) and a bit of Portage county (Republican) should basically leave the district with little change.
Southeast Ohio
District 7 (Grey)- This massive district in central and southern eastern Ohio is really a combination of the old 7th and 18th. Because it still includes most of Zach Space’s old district (Tuscarawas, Muskingum, and Ross counties) as well as the Columbus exurbs, this should be a Democratic hold, although not being able to strengthen Zach Space is definitely one of the weaknesses of this map.
District 8 (Lavender) Just to screw with John Boehner, this district became the catch-all Southern Ohio republican district. Still a deep shade of red, this district now stretches from the Indiana border all the way to Columbus and down to the Ohio River. Making Boehner campaign in 3 media markets (Cincinnati, Columbus, and Dayton) sure would be fun, although this seat is just as safe as his old one.
District 9 (Aqua Blue) In the first of three pissed of Democratic incumbents, Marcy Kaptur probably would not love these changes to her district, although it really does not weaken her Democratic strength too much. Having her pick up the four rural northwest Ohio counties while giving parts of Lorain and Sandusky county to the fifth should allow her to still cruise based on the strength of her base in Lucas county, while giving Democrats a legitimate change to knock of Bob Latta.
Northeast Ohio
District 10 (Hot Pink) Some big changes to Kucinich’s district, although it will remain heavily democratic. In exchange for giving up a bit of his inner city west side of Cleveland territory, Dennis picks up the city of Lorain and the northern part of Elyria in Lorain county. This district makes much more sense than the current lines which have this part of Lorain County lumped in with much more distant Akron (Betty Sutton’s district). Should remain reliably Democratic (if this is what you can call Dennis).
District 11 (Lime Green) This district doesn’t change too much, although it had to get bigger to account for the loss of population in some of these Cleveland suburbs. This district grows a bit further into the west side of Cleveland (to keep it majority-African American) and quite a bit into the eastern suburbs of Cuyahoga and Geauga county. Steven Latourette would now live in this district, although he would have no chance to win it.
District 12 (Powder Blue) The first of the Columbus districts, these lines were changed to take out Delaware county in exchange for the rest of Licking and the rest of Southern Franklin county. This district will remain a swing district, possibly with a slight Republican lean. Hopefully it would give a strong Democratic candidate a chance to knock of Tiberi.
District 13 (Light Pink) In what could be pissed off incumbent Democrat number two, Betty Sutton’s district gets a major facelift, giving up parts of Lorain and Media counties in exchange for all of Summit county and some of the Republican parts of Geauga and Portage counties. Since she lives outside Akron and has her base in Summit county, this should allow her to still get reelected easily, even though the district becomes slightly more Republican. Should still be an easy Democratic hold.
District 14 (Olive Green) This district becomes the battle royale between the old 17th and 14th. Because it includes all of Trumbull county and the city of Youngstown in Mahoning, Ryan should easily be able to end Steve Latourette’s political career (not a moment too soon!) Including the Northeast corner of the state including swingy Lake county, Ryan could really build a political base for a future statewide run from this district.
District 15 (Orange) This district should hopefully strengthen Mary Jo Kilroy by giving her larger portions of Franklin county and the suburban areas of Delaware county. Losing Union and Madison counties takes the most heavily Republican areas out of this district.
District 16 (Bright Green) This district doesn’t change much, but the minor changes should help to strengthen John Boccieri. The district gives up Republican Ashland county while picking up Kent in Portage County (university town) and the Cleveland suburbs in northern Medina county.