By: Inoljt, http://thepolitikalblog.wordpr…
Democratic candidates in Utah must feel as if they’re facing an impossible task. The state is often considered the most far-right Republican stronghold in the United States. Winning Utah is akin to slaying a mighty dragon with only a bow as one’s chosen weapon.
Like all dragons, however, Utah has a weak spot. The year 2012 may be a ripe time for Obama to shoot an arrow through it.
The majority of Utah’s voters are Mormon; the religion is a heavy influence on daily life in the state. The vast majority of Mormons are also conservative, because Mormonism is an inherently conservative beast. In every presidential election so far, Mormons have proved to be strongly Republican.
Mormons like to think of themselves as average, normal Americans. They’re good people. They help with the community. They love their children and teach them traditional values. Nobody cares if they have a different religion.
Except many people do care very much indeed, especially the type of person who tends to vote Republican. Many would never vote for a Mormon.
Imagine the following scenario, below the flip.
Mitt Romney decides to runs for president in 2012 and starts as the front-runner. The race quickly narrows down to Romney and another Republican – perhaps a Huckabee-type figure. Romney’s Mormonism becomes a strong undercurrent and then explodes into the media spotlight, much like race did in the 2008 Democratic primary. It becomes clear that Romney is losing support because of his religion; eventually he loses the primary and ends up faintheartedly endorsing the Republican nominee. The good folk of Utah, angered by Romney’s treatment, turn out in drastically reduced numbers during the general election. Many vote for Obama – enough that, in an election he’s winning by 10% or so – he barely takes the state.
An unlikely scenario? Not really. First, Romney seems nearly certain to run in 2012; even now he is running a shadow campaign. In 2008, Mormonism was a strong undercurrent; Romney even gave a speech on his religion. There is no reason to think why it wouldn’t be in 2012. I doubt Mitt Romney will win the nomination in a competitive race; apart from his Mormonism, he is a terrible politician who lost all the important states in the 2008 primary (except for Michigan, which he won by promising to bring back jobs that will never come back).
On the other hand, its not certain that the media will pick up on the Mormon issue. And Republicans are strong enough in Utah that they might still win the state, even if all the above did occur.
Then again, Obama won Indiana when everybody said it couldn’t be done. Moreover, in 2008 he made strong gains in Utah, improving by 18% from John Kerry’s performance. Partly, this is probably because Obama is very popular in the West.
And maybe, just maybe, the Mormon factor had something to do with it.
from saying that, had Obama lost the Democratic primary in 2008, McCain would have won Washington DC.
I’m not buying. The voters in Utah are simply too conservative and too Republican.
I think it is more important to focus on states that a) Were closer than UT in 2008, and b) Bigger, and more politically important in terms of what could come from an Obama victory down ticket. I think states like MO and GA fit these characteristics just to name a couple but I agree the anti Mormon angle could present an interesting development for Obama if he can pull off enough disaffected Republicans in UT, ID, and it could improve Obama’s margins in Eastern WA and OR as well as perhaps make AZ more competitive (not really sure about the religious composition of Northern AZ but I’d imagine it’s fairly Mormon due to its proximity to Mormon UT).
Even if Romney wound up losing in an absolutely-miserable Primary, if polls showed Utah a close race, he’d stump for the nominee a couple times and that’d be enough.
During the presidential primaries Huckabee made some statements about the LDS church and their beliefs that werent true. There was a poll I cant remember the exact numbers and I couldnt find it now but it showed competetive match ups between Huckabee and the Democrats. So I think Inoljt has a point but I think it would take more than a bitter primary I think it would take a canidate that made comments about the LDS church like Huckabee did.
exit polling, what I gather is that while Obama did much better than Kerry in Utah, the Mormon vote for GOP/Dem did not change at all. Instead it was the other other groups that split more heavily for Dems.
(Although this is a bit conflated as in 2004 the exit poll defined mormons as protestants while in 2008 they were separate). Still as there are only 2% non-Mormon protestants, it doesn’t seem to make a difference.
Seeing as anti-Mormon undercurrents in the GOP base didn’t reflect in any change among Mormon support of the GOP in 2008, I cannot envision any scenario which this would happen in 2012. Remember, the second there is a hint of dissatisfaction with the GOP in Utah, all it would take would be a Romney campaign event in Utah. And I see no reason why Romney wouldn’t do that if the RNC asked him to.
I think young voters are the key for Democrats becoming competetive on a statewide level in Utah. According to CNN’s exit poll Obama got 33% of the 18-29 vote in Utah compared to 66% nationally. The young vote is especially important in Utah because it has the youngest population in the nation.
was by thinking of 1964 and the South. I think Utah turning Democratic is unlikely, but not as unlikely as ppl think. Ppl. didn’t think a black man could become president; they didn’t think Indiana could go Democratic. But it happened.
You’d need something that amounts to complete and utter civil war within the Republican Party, between Mormons and non-Mormon evangelical Protestants.
A more likely scenario is if Romney by some miracle wins the primary, many Republicans (especially in the South) may vote for Obama to spite Romney and Mormonism, potentially causing some Republican states to swing Democratic.
For Utah to turn to the Democrats, you will need (a) time and (b) a huge economic paradise to develop in Utah.
Utah is a growing state, but it will need to attract people from outside the state to ever turn blue. In fact, I could make an argument that the younger voters of Utah are probably the most conservative amongst all the 50 states. They have learned from their parents who are quite conservative.
As far as the 30-44 year vote, I’m not surprised because a large portion of these voters have come from outside of Utah.
I honestly believe that I won’t see Utah, Idaho, or Wyoming turn blue in my lifetime. Of course, I never dreamed that a Democratic candidate would get an electoral vote from Nebraska, so anything could happen.
Not sure of the actual technical term – but I remember reading at some point –
how a major party nominee underperforms
in the home state of his/her main rival in the general election
I think I read it’s like 5% – on average.
So in a generic 50/50 election, the D would have a chance in such a state if it were normally 45-55 D-R.
Utah certainly doesn’t fit in that category.