2010 Midterms – Filing closes in Illinois & some NY ruminations

Filing closed on Monday in Illinois; the first state to do so in this cycle.

How many of Illinois’s 19 Districts did we file candidates for?

Below the fold for all the juicy details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

But before you do rejoice in the following sentence: “Congratulations Congressman Owens!” How fantastic does it feel to say that?

As most of us know Illinois has 19 Congressional Districts – 12 Dem and 7 Repub.

At the close of candidate filing we had candidates in all 19 Districts – woo hoo. Whilst this can reasonably be expected in a Blue State it is a good start nonetheless.

As for Team GOP – well they didn’t do so well. They dredged up candidates in only 17/19 Districts. Consequently Congressmen Rush and Gutierrez have only Green Party opponents to overcome in the 1st and 4th. Rush has to fend off three primary challengers first though.

Some thoughts about various challengers; ours and theirs.

Democrats:

11 incumbents 8 challenged districts:

6th – Ben Lowe has bobbed up at the last minute and seems destined to be 3rd tier frustratingly enough.

10th – BARNBURNER – Will it be Seals or Hamos? With the Repubs fielding their best possible candidate in Coulson (assuming she makes through the primary) either Seals or Hamos will have their work cut out for them. One of the top Democratic targets in the country. My money is on Seals (I volunteered for him in 2008) to bring this Kerry/Obama Repub district back home in 2010

13th – Scott Harper held Biggert to 53% in 2008 and if there is even a mild pro democratic environment he may well make this race super competitive. Has to seriously step up his fundraising as he had only 54k COH as at the end of September. Top tier candidate in a 2nd tier race. 2nd top Democratic target in Illinois

15th – David Gill who ran in 2004 & 2006 is back again. In the Democratic tsunami of 2006 he managed all of 42% and there is no reason to assume he will do any better this time with only 12K COH as at the end of September. 3rd tier candidate alas.

16th – It’s always good to have a local mayor step up to the plate. In this case it is Freeport Mayor George Gaulrapp. He has only been in the race for a few weeks so we will have to wait and see. 2nd tier candidate.

18th – Is Gulf War veteran Carl Ray the man to deliver the Schock required to win this district? Not with $241 COH he aint (But to be fair he hasn’t been in the race long). 3rd tier candidate.

19th – Is clean government campaigner Tim Bagwell the man to take on and beat Shimkus. No he isn’t as his last minute filing would seem to indicate. 3rd tier candidate.

Now for the Repubs:

7 Incumbents, 10 challenged districts.

1st, 4th – NO CANDIDATE – heh

2nd, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 9th, 12th, 17th – 3rd tier no-names.

8th – All 6 of the Repubs here seem to be no better than 3rd tier. Looks like Bean will cruise here. Of the 6 Repubs only Rodriguez seems to be of any quality.

11th – Kinzinger seems to be top tier. With 151k COH and being an Iraq war veteran he may be a threat to frosh Halvorson – but i doubt it. Race to watch.

14th – With 5 Repubs running expect a bloody Primary. If as expected establishment choice Ethan Hastert emerges then he will give Foster a real challenge. With 313k COH Hastert has to be considered top tier.

From here it is off to Texas where filing closes on January 4th. We are not travelling well here at all vis a vis candidate recruitment but you will have to wait for my next diary, due in the next week to read about that.

In regards to New York what a stunning result in the 23rd. Who would have thunk that there would be only 2 Republican in the 29 New York Congressional House Delegation. WOW

Surely now the party has to step up and recruit top tier challengers to the last two hold outs – Pete King in the 3rd and Chris Lee in the 26th. This is all the more important given that the Democratic held 29th is more Republican than both of them!