MA-Sen: Coakley +8 according to Research 2000

500 LV, MoE +-4%, 12-13/1

Martha Coakley (D) 49%

Scott Brown (R) 41%

Joseph Kennedy (L) 5%

The electorate is 40% Democratic, 18% Republican and 42% unenrolled/independent. Brown leads the latter by 49-36.

http://www.bluemassgroup.com/u…

And breathe. Hopefully this means the ads are sinking in and making Democrats get off their behinds for next Tuesday. President Clinton is up there tomorrow and First Read reports a Vicki Kennedy ad is in the can and ready to go up before the weekend.

50 thoughts on “MA-Sen: Coakley +8 according to Research 2000”

  1. We’re gonna need second opinions to verify daylight is approaching. I know PPP is going back for seconds, anyone else?

  3. Cuz on Morning Joe this morning, they had Valerie Jarrett on, and it sure sounded like Obama may have stumped for Coakley had this ordeal not arisen.  

  4. Coakley woke up barely in time, and thank God we live in an era of constant polling and the internet to help spread the news in time.

    I think enough Democrats will show up to give her victory by more than just a razor-thin margin.  It might be single-digits, but it won’t keep us up late at night.

  5. Steve Kornacki reports that a Coakley internal poll last night showed her barely ahead 46-44.  And Kornacki reports that someone he knows who he calls “a very smart Massachusetts Democrat” tells Kornacki that “this may be too far gone to recover.”

    Kornacki reports also that Coakley, in addition to doing nothing in the media, was “slow” to put together field.

    So no wonder we’re in trouble, not that we didn’t think that…but this report, if accurate (and it reads credibly) means it’s a little worse than I thought right now.

    Hang on to your hats, we’re in for a ride we hate as much as I hate roller coasters at amusement parks (and I can’t stand them!).

  6. Right before the primary, Coakley seemed to be losing her lead and the last polls showed her around 10 points ahead. She ended up winning by 20. She also has Hillary’s GOTV director for New Hampshire.

  7.  If you have time this weekenend or Friday evening, PLEASE go make calls for Coakley by going to barackobama.com The main thing is to get voters out so the more people call, the better chance she has at winning. Regardless of your opinion of her, she is one more voters for Obama’s reforms and we need it!

  9. The bottom line as of this moment is that every poll released except one still shows Coakley ahead, and that one exception shows her down a single point.  And her not being an incumbent, there’s no reason to think “undecideds break Republican” because they’ve passed judgment on her already.  That doesn’t mean they can’t break Republican, just that there’s no reason to think they’re more likely than not to do so.

    My observation over time is that if you look at a list of polls in a race, and one candidate consistently leads, even if it’s extremely close and even looks like a tossup, that candidate who consistently leads ends up winning.  I base this significantly but not solely on the 2004 Presidential, when Bush held a very narrow national lead in most polls and very narrow leads in most polls in “tossup” states he ended up winning.

    There are exceptions to be sure, like Indiana in the 2008 Presidential.  McCain led in most polls except for the occasional oddball poll that had Obama on top, and of course Obama carried it.  In the midst of his big win I’ve always thought Obama’s winning Indiana was hugely underreported……it was perhaps the biggest upset of the night, given the state’s strong conservative and Republican orientations and the polling evidence that almost all pointed to Obama coming close but still losing.

    But the leader in polling usually wins.  And I’m still clinging to that for now.

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