Triage – Who do you make the call to?

So, most of us saw the NY Times story. If not, here’s the link.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09…

So, you’re Chris Van Hollen, and you’re having a crappy Labor Day weekend, because you have to make the calls to Democratic incumbents saying: it’s probably not happening this year. Who do you call? Here’s my five choices. List yours below (or argue with mine) If you think it’s too early to make these calls, who do you think is going to get the call sooner rather than later?

Mike Acuri – NY-24. Acuri’s health care vote hurts him, but why he’d be on my list is Richard Hanna barely lost to him in 2008, in a good Democratic year, and has as much COH last time I checked as Acuri. I think this one is lost.

Steve Driehaus – OH-1 Steve Chabot barely lost this seat to Driehaus in 2008, and this is going to be a bad year for Democrats in Ohio. Chabot has a COH advantage as well.

Betsy Markey – CO-4 I know StephenCLE, for one, would disagree with this, but I don’t think Markey’s going to get as much benefit off the governor’s race in Colorado as he does. Cory Gardner is a good candidate, this is a tough district for Dems anyway, and a recent Republican poll had Markey down by 11. Markey does have more COH then Gardner, but he has enough to compete. Markey’s mention in the NYT story probably isn’t a coincidence.

Travis Childers – MS-01 This one is tough. I can see why it’d be a difficult choice between Childers and Frank Kratovil in Maryland on who gets a call, since both represent similar Repubican districts, but I think Childers has a tougher opponent and a tougher district.

Tom Perriello – VA-5 I saved the worst for last. Perriello is one of my favorite congressmen, but I just don’t see how he survives this year. Rob Hurt is a good opponent, and the polls are grim, even if you think those Survey USA polls exaggerate. He gets the call.  

77 thoughts on “Triage – Who do you make the call to?”

  1. Here is my first batch of individuals to get thrown under the DCCC bus…

    CO-4

    VA-2

    PA-11

    VA=5

    AZ-5

    I wonder what open seats they will be throwing under the bus soon.

  2. Given that Perriello is behind by six in a biased Republican poll, I’m going to assume that the Survey USA polls exaggerate things A LOT. I think he’s probably in a dead heat with his Republican opponent and can still pull this out. He’s got enough cash that he might not even need the DCCC, the important thing is that he can’t have people giving up on him yet.

  3. OH-01 – The Chabot +2 poll was an outlier/agree with markhanna on this.

    OH-15 – Bad year for Democrats in Ohio and this is a very bad Democratic candidate. Kilroy did not win by much in 2008, this is similar to the Arcuri situation in PA.

    PA-11 – Kanjorski is dead.

    FL-02 – Why does this remind me of AR-SEN? Boyd wins primary by two, Lincoln wins primary by four. Boyd unpopular, Lincoln unpopular.

    IL-11. The Republican here is a really good recruit, and Halvorson seems to be way down in the polls.  

  4. I would start with FL-08.  Not that I think it’s lost, but Grayson has enough money of his own.  If he can’t manage with his money, extra isn’t going to help.  At the same time, I’d cut loose FL-24; too expensive a market and Obama’s NASA plans have shot that one to hell.

  5. IL-11, Debbie Halvorsen: I know most of the polls showing her down have been Republican polls, but they tend to show her way down, and she hasn’t even been able to put out a poll showing her ahead or only down a little to try and stop the bleeding. Also, for how much her campaign was talked up in 2008, she needed a ton of DCCC money to beat a very flawed opponent. I don’t think D-trip can afford that this year.

    NY-24, Mike Arcuri: I agree with OP here. Arcuri has alienated the base with his healthcare vote, and this is not  cycle for him to pick off many of Hanna’s 2008 voters.

    OH-01, Steve Dreihaus: Has anybody ever looked a precinct-level results for this district and seen how insidious the gerrymander is? The western Hamilton + Butler County portions gave McCain 70-80% of the vote, almost drowning out Cincinnati even a good year. This, of course, is a bad year.

    OH-15, Mary Jo Kilroy: I like Mary Jo Kilroy, but Columbus just isn’t that into her.

    PA-11, Paul Kanjorski: Look, if you’ve been in the house since 1985, are sitting a district where the president got 57% of the vote, yet you still can’t lead your opponent in a poll to save your life, then I don’t feel sorry for you. We’ll either get this seat back in 2012 or Carney and Barletta will “trade districts,” so to speak.

  6. Is there decent polling showing him way behind?

    I tend to agree with the rest of the comments in this thread.

    I’m keeping something in mind about Periello, though: He came from way behind 2 years ago to win. That said, he barely won, so I’m not really disagreeing that he’s likely to lose this time. And if he loses and wants a position in the Executive Branch, I think he’ll be hired for one.

  8. If you’re the NRCC, do you drop a nickel trying to save Charles Djou in HI-01? The odds are against him, but this district gave 47% of the vote to Bush in ’04, Hawaii likes its incumbents, and his opponent has lost several high-profile races over the last decade (she’s almost the Dino Rossi of the South Pacific.) I personally wouldn’t spend there, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they did.

  9. I would look at two things in addition to poll numbers,

    1. How strong is the GOP opponent?  If the GOP opponent doesn’t have serious vulnerabilities and cannot be ripped apart, then the seat should be dropped. You aren’t going to improve your own favorables, so the correct strategy would be to run a pure negative campaign.

    2. How would the race react to a natural tightening of the enthusiasm gap and/or an increase in Dem turnout?  If the district is one where this wouldn’t make enough of a difference, then the race should be dropped.

    All five of your seats, except for OH-1, fit both these categories of strong GOP candidate and not much help from a reduced enthusiasm gap.  And in OH-1, Chabot is strong enough to overcome a last minute increased Dem turnout.  

    I actually wouldn’t drop MD-1 yet if I were the Dems.  Andy Harris is an opponent where a strong negative campaign might work.  It probably won’t work, but it did work in 2008, and there is a chance it may work in 2010, so I wouldn’t drop it yet.

  10. Boyd, Bright, Childers, Kratovil, and Marshall. If you’re staring down the barrel of a severely reduced majority, why spend money saving people who aren’t going to help you pass anything?

    Beyond that, Arcuri, Driehaus, Kilroy, Perriello, and Teague. They’re probably on their way to a loss anyway, and they can more or less hold their own on the fundraising front.

  11. about that triage article was that they put IA-01 in the “lean Dem” category. I don’t know whether the NY Times came to that conclusion all on their own, or if they have some source inside the DCCC. I couldn’t get any straight comment from the DCCC yesterday about whether IA-01 is really on their watch list.

    Bruce Braley is considered highly effective, and his opponent is an underfunded novice BUT the sleazy 501(c)4 American Future Fund is going after Braley and plans to spend six figures on tv ads. They already hit him with a spot on the “Ground Zero mosque”.

    Almost no one has been expecting IA-01 to be competitive. If the DCCC really thinks Braley is vulnerable, that’s a bad sign. On the other hand, I don’t know the NYTimes source for their graphic–maybe they got it wrong putting IA-01 on the lean Dem list.

  12. CO-4 Markey

    NM-2  Teague (I think it’ll be this way soon enough)

    MS-1 Childers (based off the district being 27% AA)

    OH-1 Dreihaus

    OH-15 Kilroy

    VA-2 Nye

    VA-5 Periello (sigh)

    MD-1 Kratovil

    PA-11 Kanjorski

    PA-3 Dahlkemper (maybe)

    MI-7 Schauer

    So I guess that’s 11 incumbents I think are pretty much gone already.  That plus 7 of the open seats makes 18.  

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