So, most of us saw the NY Times story. If not, here’s the link.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09…
So, you’re Chris Van Hollen, and you’re having a crappy Labor Day weekend, because you have to make the calls to Democratic incumbents saying: it’s probably not happening this year. Who do you call? Here’s my five choices. List yours below (or argue with mine) If you think it’s too early to make these calls, who do you think is going to get the call sooner rather than later?
Mike Acuri – NY-24. Acuri’s health care vote hurts him, but why he’d be on my list is Richard Hanna barely lost to him in 2008, in a good Democratic year, and has as much COH last time I checked as Acuri. I think this one is lost.
Steve Driehaus – OH-1 Steve Chabot barely lost this seat to Driehaus in 2008, and this is going to be a bad year for Democrats in Ohio. Chabot has a COH advantage as well.
Betsy Markey – CO-4 I know StephenCLE, for one, would disagree with this, but I don’t think Markey’s going to get as much benefit off the governor’s race in Colorado as he does. Cory Gardner is a good candidate, this is a tough district for Dems anyway, and a recent Republican poll had Markey down by 11. Markey does have more COH then Gardner, but he has enough to compete. Markey’s mention in the NYT story probably isn’t a coincidence.
Travis Childers – MS-01 This one is tough. I can see why it’d be a difficult choice between Childers and Frank Kratovil in Maryland on who gets a call, since both represent similar Repubican districts, but I think Childers has a tougher opponent and a tougher district.
Tom Perriello – VA-5 I saved the worst for last. Perriello is one of my favorite congressmen, but I just don’t see how he survives this year. Rob Hurt is a good opponent, and the polls are grim, even if you think those Survey USA polls exaggerate. He gets the call.