Under-the-Radar House Races Cattle Call

164 thoughts on “Under-the-Radar House Races Cattle Call”

1. His wife was arrested because her brother was funneling money to her from illegal offshore internet gaming.  She was managing an account that had over $7 million dumped into it, but she plead guilty and was only fined $2500.  This was pretty big in Boston media last couple of weeks.  Congressman said he knew nothing about his wife and the $7M, but it certainly didn’t look good.

   http://www.boston.com/news/loc…

    

2. I wouldn’t be worried about Israel at all.
   
   I’ve seen Israel’s ads on TV, as well as a few mailings here and there.  Nothing from GOPer John Gomez, except yard signs.  Israel won’t be caught asleep at the wheel here.

   All in all, I don’t think he’s in much trouble.  No polling on this race that I can recall though.  The action seems to be next door in NY-01, I’m looking forward to Israel winning by double digits.

3. Dicks’ opponent is running against him for the fourth time. Dicks has more money than the Queen and voters here have been electing him since the Ford Administration. He got 56% in the blanket primary back in August. He’s in no danger.

4. The biggest problem in taking him on is the inhospitable geography of the district.  There are literally six media markets that feed the district’s terrain.  While the media markets may be cheap aside from Minneapolis-St. Paul, it would add up quickly trying to reach the voters in six media markets, and in many cases would not be cost-efficient given the relatively small number of voters you’d be reaching.  I know we have at least one poster on here from northwestern media.  Perhaps he/she can tell us whether Peterson or his opponent have ever had an ad on the Fargo or Grand Forks TV stations?  Because outside of TV ads, voters in much of the region would be in the dark about the state of the race.  The Watertown and Sioux Falls, SD, media markets would NEVER talk about a Congressional race in western Minnesota, and it’s unlikely the Mankato, MN, market would either.  I lived in that media market for several years during Peterson’s tenure in the district and neither Peterson’s name nor his opponent’s ever came up there.

   Among many reasons why Peterson would be very hard to topple even in a wave election, the aforementioned is first and foremost.

5. is in ma-4 ,not 10

6. Gene Green is fine. Spends his time campaigning for others.

   Most of our state’s congressmen are pretty unimpressive, however, with few accomplishments to point to, or work the extremes of their party (This hints at why Chet Edwards is so great out of our 32 and why Ciro is pretty meh, holding a swing seat but being pretty indistinguishable from the other Valley reps).

   TX-25 Dogget should be ok, North Austin is the GOP part and is turning out, that’s out of his district. TX-20 Gonzales should also be fine. I’d keep an eye on Hinojosa, Ortiz, and Cuellar though simply because, as I said, they don’t really have a lot to point at accomplishment wise, especially Ortiz who’s 2006 numbers were VERY weak. It’s getting time for him to retire. Both he and Hinojosa seem to view being congressman as a retirement job, more machine like operations. I expect both to close and win between 55% and 60%, maybe 54% for Ortiz.

7. TX-27….the only poll I saw showed Ortiz in trouble.  Without evidence to the contrary, we have to be prepared for the worst.  My thinking is an expected tight gubernatorial race could drive Hispanic voter turnout and save Ortiz.

   IL-12….If Phil Hare’s in trouble, Costello could be too.  Didn’t even think of him before.

   TN-05…At the top of the ballot is a blowout GOP gubernatorial race that will suppress Democratic turnout.  Kerry barely won this district.  All things considered, Cooper could be near the top of the list of vulnerables on here.

   NY-02….Tom Suozzi.  ‘Nuff said.  Any speculation on whether ethnic bias could work against John Gomez?  I know in Minnesota in 1998, we got stuck with douchebag Republican Mary Kiffmeyer as Secretary of State for two terms because Democratic challenger Edwina Garcia underperformed Democrats in every other statewide race.

   NY-09….Still got a bad feeling on this one.

   PA-13….If Sestak’s really on the move as the polls indicate, Schwartz should be fine.

   MA-06….I think this one flips.

   MA-05….I think this one flips.

   OH-10….I’ve been on record for weeks with this one.

8. That was my old district before I headed off to college (I’m registered in Hinchey’s district now). Tonko’s running against a small businessman named Ted Danz. He seems like a very nice, not-crazy Republican, but I hadn’t seen any television advertising when I was home few weeks back (Tonko, on the other hand, has been up with positive spots). I highly doubt this one’s in play.

9. Where I’m from originally. Can’t testify as to the strength of Rothman’s campaign (or lack thereof), but I can say that this is a case where he is probably not in any danger. He potentially could have been if his opposition were stronger (i.e. Kathleen Donovan) but there were not only several challengers for the nomination, there was a probably above-average amount of bitterness:

   http://www.politickernj.com/es…

   The race got ugly, worse than most. Internet psychological warfare and Agosta infamously saying he would waterboard Rothman finally spilled onto a sidewalk in Elmwood Park on June 5th when Agosta’s cadillac jumped a curb and brushed up against an Aslanian volunteer.

   The case went to court last month and resulted in Agosta eating a careless driving charge.    
   

   To put this in context, Agosta is the nominee.

   Now, 99 percent of the general public has no clue that this ever happened, and 99 percent will continue to have no clue this ever happened. But I think it took the wind out of the sails of local Republican activists, donors, etc. early on in the game when they could have made a difference. (And you can bet if Rothman were in trouble, a whole lot less than 99 percent of the general public would have no clue this ever happened.) Rothman has had some sort of accusations of improprieties involving medical equipment (or something) companies, but they’ve not been of much consequence.

   Electorally, not only is his opposition weak, but Rothman’s strong as well. He has a pretty strong base of support as a former mayor of Englewood and judge (but don’t they all) and his very… pro-Israel views are a good fit for the district, where a pretty big percentage of people voting R in presidential elections are Orthodox Jewish. He’s a PVI outperformer (i.e., in 2004 winning 68-32 when Kerry won the district 59-41, and even winning in 1996 against Donovan in his first election (by 56-42)). This is not a very wave-sensitive district either; he got 70 percent of the vote in 2002, and 71 in 2006 (no idea as to the relative strength of his opponents in those races). Then again, every year his opposition feels like the Republicans this year in tone, it’s just that they’re consistently few in number.

   I’m setting the over-under for this at 68 percent for Rothman. Some districts are “Jack Daniel’s” districts; I’m calling this one a “plane ticket to Sweden for a long vacation” district, because if Rothman loses, you will see at least two-thirds of the House be Republicans.

   tl;dr This one’s a safe one. Thanks for this cattle call though; excellent idea.

   Full disclosure; I interned at Rothman’s district office last year; and of course the above represents my views alone and not those of any other person or organization.

10. Only public poll of Courtney was D+14 a couple weeks ago. He was at 55. This was from Merriman River Group, who polled statewide races at the same time, and came up with numbers slightly less Dem-friendly than other pollsters in the field simultaneously.

    His opponent is a former news anchor. Her campaign just hasn’t gotten off the ground. I read recently that she had ridiculously low COH, something in the 5 figures. She’s also a little wacky.

    Also, none of the right-leaning IE groups have gone on the air in the district (as far as I know), unlike in CT-04 and -05.

    So, I think he’s pretty safe. He won by a handful of votes four years ago, so I bet he’s very pleased to have a little breathing room this cycle.

11. I’m not particularly worried, but was a little surprised to see a huge Pascrell billboard in Bloomfield when visiting a friend this weekend.  And there’s a surprising number of Red-tinted political signs with Tea Party style slogans on its main drag (for a largely Dem-tilting town), but they seem mostly focused on smaller races and it could just be a very aggressive, but small group of people (and i could be misinterpreting their vague anti-tax-seeming phrases).

12. MD-03: John Sarbanes should not be in any trouble he is running against a man named Jim Wilhelm.
    
    Md-02: Dutch Ruppersberger seems like he is going to win too. This race is being contested though as some outside ads have appeared on air against Dutch, Ruppersberger launch an new ad  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v… and his opp. Marcelo Cardarelli launched a one min. ad http://www.youtube.com/watch?v… This is a page I found about featuring Cardarelli http://www.umm.edu/doctors/mar… . Obama won 60% of the vote in the 2nd in 2008. Also of note much land area in the 2nd was (before Ruprpersberger)represented in Congress by Robert Ehrlich (R), who was elected governor in 2002, defeated in 2006, and is running this year. Ruppersberger will probally get between 55 to 63 percent of the vote.

13. Farenthold isn’t a compelling opponent at all.  Ortiz will pull it out by the same 58-60% margin he always does.

14. Inslee (WA-1) and Dicks (WA-6) are fine, facing severely underfunded opponents, and tellingly no major outside groups bothering to intervene in an attempt to make them a race.

    Didn’t see it on your list, but some rumors a few weeks ago re Smith (WA-9) being in potential trouble, some internal poll or whatnot showing it close.  Again, Smith has a big $$ edge and haven’t seen any outside ads for that race. The district has a slight D lean, Smith hasn’t really been challenged in years, but not a district you can take for granted.

15. So, I found this gem on the website of Henry Cuellar’s opponent:

    “Years ago, as a young man, I damaged another man’s car in an attempt to keep that man from wrecking my marriage.”

    Uh… yeah.  I mean, I guess to some people that’s an acceptable thing to do.

16. With do respect Visclosky’s opponent is a joke who is not actively campaigning as far as I know. That’s what I’ve heard anyway. The guy has been the R nominee for a decade. He has literally been running for Congress for TEN years. While I have never met him from what I have heard he is not at all serious. I am no Visclosky fan but in all reality he is fairly well liked there and while he is corrupt the whole area is a big bucket of corruption and he is not that bad considering. Visclosky will win with 65-70 percent of the vote. Also check out this Washington post profile naming him one of the safest dems with good background on this district.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/…
    

17. I live in McGovern’s district and am close to Neal’s, and there’s been little in the way of action on the GOP side in either one. Tsongas and Tierney have a little more to be worried about because they have somewhat better opponents and somewhat shakier districts. If any incumbent were to lose, I’d say it would be Tsongas first, then Tierney. (but then again, Barney Frank’s in for a tougher election than usual this year as well.)

18. I live in this district. If Steve Israel loses, the Democrats have probably lost at least 75 seats, if not 100, and have possibly even taken the Senate. It was supposedly changed to his advantage back in 2002m, when New York lost a seat or two, but even with some fairly strong Republican presence despite the Democratic edge, he’s safe. He won by 34 points in 2004, even as Bush did better in Suffolk County and New York as a whole. He won by 40 points in 2006, and slid down in 2008, all the way back down to 34 points.

    I’ve seen a few signs for his opponent, John Gomez, and received a few mailings from both Gomez and Israel himself. But I have yet to see a television commercial, whereas I have seen and heard ads for/against Tim Bishop (NY-01) and Carolyn McCarthy (NY-04). (Interestingly enough, my town’s homecoming parade was today, and I was in Starbucks reading and overheard some Gomez people talking. That was the first I had seen of either side on the ground, although it is very possible I missed something.) Israel has a more than $2 million cash-on-hand advantage, according to The New York Times.

    I guess I should never say never. After all, this area was once solidly Republican, but really, if it goes down this year, I will be astonished. Bishop isn’t going down, either, and he’s supposedly much more likely than Israel.  

19. I used to live near that area and have spent some time there, so I agree with other commenters that Tsongas might be in more trouble than is generally acknowledged. The problem is that she has a bad reputation for taking her races for granted and being a high maintenance b—- who expects to be treated like royalty because she’s a Senator’s wife, which hasn’t endeared her to anyone on her team. Shades of Coakley, in other words.  

    Also, her district, while solidly Democratic at the Presidential level, is pretty ancestrally Republican, and is filled with exactly the sort of clueless rich suburban voters who will turn against Dems in a bad year.

    I think “Unpleasantly arrogant Dems who take their re-elections for granted” is going to be a theme among those supposedly safe D’s who actually lose on election night. I’m also thinking of Gene Taylor and Maurice Hinchey in this category, but I’ve got a feeling Tsongas could be on that list, too. (Maybe also Tierney. Possibly McGovern. Not Frank – I’ve lived in MA-04 and he’ll be fine.)  

    And re: MA-02 because I spent much of my life in an adjacent district….I don’t know anything about Neal’s race this cycle, but I do wonder what his voting for the Stupak amendment does to his re-election numbers that far west of Worcester. He’s got a pretty large minority population in his district, too (by western MA standards), and they can’t be too impressed by him this cycle.

    MA is just a pain in the butt to predict this cycle, other than MA-10 which I think goes Republican. (The polls showing the D ahead don’t show third parties).  

20. I live in RI-01 (the Patrick Kennedy seat, now open), but I don’t think Republican Mark Zaccaria is much of a threat to Jim Langevin in RI-02. I don’t know Zaccaria (I’ve never met him and I don’t know how “quality” he is), but I can say that he’s been mostly invisible, a reflection of his poor fundraising all cycle. He was trounced by over a 2-1 margin in 2008 by Langevin, and even in a better Republican year I’ll be shocked if he cracks 40% in this solidly Democratic district.

21. Nothing doing here- Ed Markey vs unknown sacrificial lamb.  In this district the Republican candidates haven’t put their party on their signs for years.

    There’s more drama going on next door in MA-8 (Niki Tsongas), but it’s that desultry working class exurb and blighted former industrial town stuff.  She’s not quite right for the district and so her margins will always be disappointing.  But I don’t see her losing.

    All the real fun’s going on in MA-10. Perry is handicapped by that stupid police station strip search incident twenty years ago which he has never made the effort to clear up satisfactorily, so I don’t see him pulling over any substantial number of indies or Democratic leaners.  It’s a 55/45 district iirc and it looks to go to Keating by a few points- maybe five to eight.

    Barney Frank is going to squeeze by one more time, but he’s getting a bit old mannish and worn down by chairing the Banking Committee.  He’s getting impatient with his district and it with him, and it’s changing.  So there’s a mismatch forming.  The grumbling he’s facing this year is a sign.  I think the best thing would be for him to retire in ’12- maybe to run against Scott Brown- and let the district get split up.
    

22. Was in taking down Harry Reid in a landslide. Perhaps if Sue Lowden hadn’t brought about “Barter-gate”, Shelley Berkley could have been in for a rougher time than usual in NV-01. But since “The Reid Machine” is working overtime to defeat Angle, it’s also benefitting Berkley in that most of the strongest “Reid base” areas are in NV-01. The (always laughably incompetent) NV GOP tried to make noise about playing in NV-01 back in March, but especially once “Reid rose from the dead”, the Dem ground game kicked into high gear, and the NV GOP was left with serial also-ran Ken Wegner (his campaign signs tout him as “MILITARY VETERAN!” and “CORRUPTION FIGHTER!”, but no one cares b/c Shelley always wows her audience with her signature red pumps, flashy casino host smile, and larger than life ‘tude that’s gotten her plenty of “juice” in Congress) as this year’s NV-01 sacrificial lamb.

    Berkley will win comfortably again this year… And if Reid wins NV-Sen by a bigger margin than the pundits expect, it will likely be due to NV-01 turning out in bigger numbers than expected, meaning Shelley will win in a crushing landslide.

23. I live in NC-4 and near NC-13.  In NC-4, our long-time Dem rep David Price is facing Republican teabagger B.J. Lawson for the second time.  He beat him soundly, 63-36, in ’08.  Price isn’t exactly an electrifying candidate, he’s 70, and never really stands out or receives a lot of attention, but he always votes the right way.  On the other hand, he never does anything controversial either.  I expect that he’ll retire sometime in the next few cycles, and hope that we’ll get a more vocal Progressive leader in his place.

    This year, I expect Lawson to get around 42% of the vote due to the nature of the cycle, but he has no chance of winning.  This district contains all of Orange County (Chapel Hill) and Durham County (Durham) which are the bluest areas of the state.  I live in the Southern Wake County (south of Raleigh) part of the district, which is more of a purple area, and there are a ton more Lawson yard signs around here this year than in ’08 (and more for Price too) and I expect Lawson to get his best numbers here.

    In redistricting, this district will have to get smaller as it’s one of the most over-populated in the country.  The Southern Wake County part could move to Bob Etheridge’s district (NC-2) and Lawson might be able to give Etheridge a good challenge there.

    NC-13 contains Northern Wake County, and stretches across northern NC to pick up Greensboro in Guilford County too.  It’s been a reliable blue district since it was formed in 2002, and although Brad Miller has had some high-profile challengers, he’s never had much trouble getting re-elected.  This year, he’s facing one of those rare black teabaggers in Bill Randall.  I saw part of a debate between Miller and Randall on TV yesterday, and Randall came across crazier than even most teabaggers, while Miller was calm, cool, collected and had much more knowledge of all the issues.  Any sane undecided voter who watched would clearly gravitate towards Miller.  I don’t think he’ll have any trouble beating Randall, although I suppose Randall could get a vote percentage in the low 40s.

    In contrast to Price, I perceive Miller to be a much more vocal Progressive leader, who I hope will have a long career.  I’d love to see him run for Senate someday, maybe against Burr in 2016.  He’d make a great Governor too.

    Bottom line, I would be shocked and shaken to the core if either Price or Miller lose this year.  Kissell (NC-08), Shuler (NC-11), McIntyre (NC-07), and Etheridge (NC-02) would all lose too if the wave were big enough to take down Price and Miller, and that just won’t happen.  NC is quickly trending blue and has a huge Dem registration advantage.  The only race that I think the Republicans have a chance of winning is NC-08, and even there I’d give Kissell the edge.  Kissell’s ads have been on TV quite a bit (some of our Raleigh TV stations serve Fayetteville too) and I haven’t seen any at all from his opponent, Harold Johnson.  I haven’t seen Johnson up in any polls yet either.

24. opponent is a “cougar” advice columnist.  She teaches hot older ladies how to score young dudes.

    I think Costello’s gonna make it.

25. I can’t imagine that Rosa is in any trouble. I have no idea who her opponent is, and I doubt many others do either. (I’m just north in CT-01.)

    The only public poll of the race has her +21, as of three weeks ago. And that poll seemed TOUGH on most other Democratic candidates at the time. So it might even have understated her strength.

    Incidentally, her husband is Democratic uber-pollster Stan Greenberg (of GQR), so if she was in any trouble, I think you’d see her slugging it out fiercely, which hasn’t happened.

26. Israel, Weiner, and Tonko are all safe

27. Jacob Turk swears that he has a shot to win, but he’s losing 52-43 in his internal, and it’s tough to get a good gauge on the KCMO vote, which is heavy Cleaver. So Cleaver should win by at least 15

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