DrPhillips’ California State Legislature Forecast (revised)

I’m back again with my outlook for the California legislature, revised this time. I’ve changed a few things, as conditions look somewhat different in a few races. First off, I would like to take time to acknowledge State Senator Jenny Oropeza, D-Long Beach, who passed away at age 53 on Wednesday. SSP’ers might remember her name from the Democratic primary for the special election for CA-37 in 2007. May she rest in peace.

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As I explained in the last diary, this is a very narrowly divided district and is just outside Sacramento. The state party is spending money on the Democratic nominee, Richard Pan and he’s got 1.4 million in the bank and is a very formidable opponent against ultra right-wing, Prop. 8 author, Andy Pugno. It’s interesting to note that some of this district is within CA-3, which is seeing a very competitive race between Rep. Dan Lungren and Dr. Ami Bera.  This one is still a Toss-Up.

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Still rating this one Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic just because of environment and unpredictability, but I think Alyson Huber is in great shape in this Sacramento area seat. She’s picked up good endorsements and has been named “Legislator of the Year” by California Small Business Association.

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I think this seat is now the Republicans best pickup opportunity. With Jerry McNerney in a tight race, that might spill over into the Assembly race, as much of this district is in CA-11. It’s not often an incumbent is ousted in the Assembly, so I’m leaving this one as Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic.

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Before, I thought Das Williams might have a problem here, but he has improved his money situation and that should play well to his advantage. I’m switching this one to Likely Democratic.

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This South Bay seat has been reliably Democratic for quite awhile, the last really competitive race was in 1994 when then Assemblymember and current Secretary of State Debra Bowen held off a Republican challenge. Democratic nominee Betsy Butler is a decent candidate, but there are some rumblings that this one is on the Republicans radar. Their nominee, Nathan Mintz, is a Tea Party candidate, so that might not play well here, but this one is worth watching since surprises happen in years like this. Likely Democratic.

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Another South Bay seat. Bonnie Lowenthal won this seat in 2008 with 56% of the vote, even with Obama winning it with 61%. This will be her second race and it’s clear that she didn’t get huge coattails in a Presidential year, so this one should be on the watch list for this year. Her opponent, Republican Martha Flores-Gibson is running a decent campaign, but it may not be enough to dislodge Lowenthal. Likely Democratic.

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Phu Nguyen picked up some public safety unions this week, which is telling, since his opponent, Allan Mansoor is a former deputy. Nguyen seems to be running a highly energetic campaign and could pull off a win. Nguyen has outspent Mansoor in the past filing period and still has more COH, which is a very good thing. I’m rating this one Lean Republican, only because it has been traditionally Republican and hard for a Democrat to win.

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Republican Don Wagner has not been very visible on the campaign trail and is quite right-wing. On the Democratic side, you have Melissa Fox who is running a very competent and energetic campaign. Even though this has long been a Republican district, that grip is slipping as Democratic leaning Irvine has helped make Democrats viable here. I rated this one as Likely Republican before, but I’m moving it to Lean Republican, simply because Fox is a top tier candidate and Wagner is running a lackluster campaign, conditions that make an upset very possible.

State Senate

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Shifting this one to Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic. With a little less of an enthusiasm gap in California and the fact that Cabellero can run up good numbers in the Salinas portion of the district, I think she will pick this one up for the Democrats.

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Nothing much has changed here. Lou Correa picked up a Chamber of Commerce endorsement, which should boost his prospects and the district has picked up a lot more Democratic voters since his initial narrow victory here. Plus, he’s got big money. Likely Democratic.

Overall, the Democrats will retain majorities in both houses of the legislature and perhaps, even add a couple of seats. If Republicans don’t manage to grab any seats, expect Assembly Minority Leader Martin Garrick to be out, as his leadership has been criticized by Republicans, including fellow Assemblymember Connie Conway.

My rankings for the statewide races:

Governor: Likely Democratic

Lt. Governor: Likely Democratic

Atty. General: Toss-up

Secretary of State: Solid Democratic

Treasurer: Solid Democratic

Controller: Solid Democratic

Insurance Commissioner: Likely Democratic

U.S. Senate: Lean Democratic

At this point, it looks like Democrats in California will survive this cycle fairly well.