D-held house seats:
I would be shocked if Dems held any of these: AR 2, CO 4, FL 2, FL 8, FL 24, IL 11, IN 8, KS 3, LA 3, NY 29, OH 1, OH 15, PA 3, TN 6, TN 8, TX 17. +16 R.
I would be surprised but not shocked if Dems held any of these: MD 1, MS 1, NH 1, PA 7, VA 2, VA 5, WA 3. +5.6 R if each has an 80% chance to go R.
I’d bet the Reep if I had to bet, but would not be surprised if Dems held any of these: AR 1, AZ 1, WI 7, WI 8, MI 1, PA 8, OH 16, NV 3, NM 2, SC 5, ND, GA 8, NY 20, NJ 3, CO 3, NH 2, IL 17. +10.2 R if each has a 60% chance to go R.
I’d bet the Dem if I had to bet, but would not be surprised if Reeps took any of these: AZ 5, AL 2, IL 14, NY 19, NY 23, PA 10, PA 11, SD, MI 7, WV 1, OH 18, FL 22, NC 8, IN 9, TN 4, TX 23, MS 4. +6.8 R if each has a 40% chance to go R.
I would be surprised but not shocked if Reeps took any of these: CT 4, CT 5, MN 8, IA 2, ID 1, IN 2, MO 4, NY 24, NY 25, PA 12, MI 9, AZ 8, OR 5, WA 2, NC 7, MA 10, NM 1, CA 11, CA 20, CA 22, CA 47, VA 9, VA 11, OH 6, CO 7. +5.0 R if each has a 20% chance to go R.
I would be shocked if any other Dem seats flipped. That includes NC 11 and NY 22.
R-held seats:
I would be shocked if Reeps held DE. +1 D.
I would be surprised but not shocked if Reeps held any of these: HI 1, IL 10, LA 2. +2.4 D if each has an 80% chance to go D.
I’d bet the Reep if I had to bet, but would not be surprised if Dems took FL 25. +0.4D if the Dem has a 40% shot.
I would be surprised but not shocked if Dems took WA 8 or CA 3. +0.4 D if each has a 20% chance to go D.
I would be shocked if any other Reep seats flipped.
So I have Reeps flipping an expected 43.6 seats, Dems flipping 4.2, for a net of 39.4 to the Reeps…hmm. If I had to bet I’d bet the over, as I suspect my ratings may be too favorable to Dems. I’ll just round up to 40.
Senate:
D-held seats:
ND, AR, IN 100% to flip.
WI 90%
PA 75%
IL 55%
CO 50%
NV 40%
WA 25%
WV 20%
CA 5%
CT 5%
Everything else, forget it. R +6.65.
R-held seats:
AK 20% counting Murk as a Reep.
KY 5%
MO 5%
and that’s it. D +0.3.
Net of 6.35 seats to the Reeps, call it 6 because Senate races are easier to keep track of.
So that’s a net of 40 House seats and 6 Senate seats to the Reeps.