With the election over, I thought I’d take a stab at what a bipartisan incumbent protection map might look like in Virginia. The plan is to protect all 11 incumbents; the only district that would likely be competitive in an open seat situation under this map is VA-10.
VA-01 (Rob Wittman – R) – Hasn’t changed a whole lot; takes in some more of Prince William, loses part of Stafford/Spotsylvania, and adds the two Eastern Shore counties (they were in VA-01 prior to the 2000 map).
VA-02 (Scott Rigell – R) – Snakes up the shore to take in some Republican territory (Poquoson, parts of York and Gloucester), picks up the VA-01 bit of Hampton, and loses the Eastern Shore. Should move the needle to the Republicans by a couple points.
VA-03 (Bobby Scott – D) – Takes Petersburg out of VA-04, mostly unchanged. 62% black.
VA-04 (Randy Forbes – R) – Also not changed a whole lot, aside from losing Petersburg, which should flip the district to McCain.
VA-05 (Robert Hurt – R) – Removes Charlottesville and most of Albemarle, adds the rest of Bedford, Lynchburg, and Amherst. Should be no trouble at all for the Republicans to hold now.
VA-06 (Bob Goodlatte – R) – Snakes up from Roanoke, where Goodlatte lives, through the Shenandoah Valley, and pulls in Charlottesville and Albemarle and some outer NoVa counties. Shouldn’t endanger Goodlatte.
VA-07 (Eric Cantor – R) – Actually a little less ridiculous now, it’s a solidly-Republican suburban Richmond/Fredericksburg area district. Still should be solidly Republican.
VA-08 (Jim Moran – D) – Remains solidly Dem; continues to hold the trifecta of Alexandria, Arlington, and Falls Church, but goes west instead of south. Maybe a couple points less Democratic, but still a safe D district.
VA-09 (Morgan Griffith – R) – Not much changed here; added Salem, Martinsville, and some more of Roanoke County. Safe R.
VA-10 (Frank Wolf – R) – Added almost all of Shenandoah County, and removes some parts of Fairfax. Retains the most Republican parts of Fairfax. Safe for Wolf, should lean Republican in an open seat, unless it’s a particularly good Dem year.
VA-11 (Gerry Connolly – D) – Replaces the Republican PW County parts with the solidly-Dem SE PW County. Should be a pretty safe Dem seat.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Repubs if they win the VA state senate, go on and do a mid-decade redistricting so they can somehow take Conolly out for good.
to strengthen Gerry. Maybe give him Alexandria? I know that Moran was Alexandria Mayor in the 1980s, but I think he lives in Arlington now.
would go for this but would the Dems want to lock in the GOP gains.
I think this is a good first draft, but I think it ignores some local politics
In the 1st, I don’t know if Wittman would be fine with giving up parts of Stafford, Spotsylvania, and Fredericksburg while gaining even more parts of Prince William County. Is he gaining more Republican parts? In 2010 his underfunded Democratic opponent won the parts of PWC in the 1st District.
For the 2nd, I’d want to know just how much this moves the needle to the Republicans. It’s perhaps the only swing district left in Republican hands in Virginia and they’ll want to do a lot more than just nudging it to the GOP.
What’s your performance for the Democrats in the 6th? Goodlatte should be fine but I wonder what the influence of Charlottesville, Albemarle, and Roanoke would combine for in an open seat.
I live in Moran’s VA-8 district, but my permanent address is in Connolly’s VA-11 district. From what I understand Northern Virginia has grown a lot since 2000, so I would think the VA-8, 10, and 11 districts will have to be smaller. I bet the republicans will redraw the 3 northern VA districts so that the 2 districts adjacent to DC are strongly democrat, while the other (Wolf’s) is strongly republican. The demographics have changed too much in VA-11 for the republicans to try to save it. They would be better off strengthening the VA-10 so that it doesn’t flip when Wolf retires.
According to my calculations (posted below) Obama only lost your version of the 6th by about three points — slightly less by the margin which he lost the 5th in 2008. Unfortunately for Rep’s Charlotesville and Albemarle are very unfortunately placed for any Rep gerrymander such that it is impossible to not have at least one marginally competitive downstate district centered around C-ville. They’re likley best move is to keep the basic countours of the fifth but to make changes around the edges — ie switching out Danville Martinsville Nelson and/or Brunswick for very conservative areas of SW Virginia adjacent to the 5th’s current boundaries.
Albemarle: + 9,000
Augusta: -13,800
Bath: -300
Botetourt: -5800
Culpepper: -1500
Greene: -1800
Highland: -350
Madison: -900
Page: -800
Rappahannock: -100
Rockbridge: -1400
Rockingham: -12,000
Charlottesville: +11,900
Harrisonburg: +2400
Lexington: +600
Roanoke City: +11,900
Staunton: +200
Waynesboro: -900
Roanoke County: approx. ½ of 9800 = -5000
Margin: approx: -8650
Total votes cast in old 6th district in 2008: 320,654
Estimated margin: 2-3%
Estimated vote percentage McCain/Obama: 51/49 or 51/48
I figured myself the most likely scenario would be Connolly strengthened at the expense of us Dems in VA-10, but seeing it on a map and discussed in detail makes me feel the hurt. Ugh. McLean where I live will be marginally Democratic island in a sea of red within this district.
Nice job Johnny but I must say that as a Democrat this map really stinks! It is most likely a realistic option given that incumbent protection will likely be the #1 focus but having a state like VA that is fairly even as far as PVI (Obama won VA and the national vote by about the same margin) go 8-3 GOP is disheartening. Really the only open seat that would likely be competitive would be Wolf’s when he retires under that map. Also using your map as an example Perriello making a comeback would be extremely difficult as you have C’ville/Albermarle split up which is exactly what the GOP wants to make sure that they do. I personally think that if he decides to run for office again he should just wait until 2013 anyway so this is fine. Couple of questions/points.
1. What is the VRA for Bobby Scott? Right now he represents downtown Richmond and Norfolk which are about 100 miles apart. Does his district have to be created this way to be in compliance with the VRA?
2. Is Cantor sufficiently safe in this map? He won this year with 60% of the vote and while turnout was very low the fact that he could be in line to be Speaker of the House almost makes the GOP want to protect him as much as possible in the event of a bad year for the GOP.
3. Under this map I could see a strong challenge to Goodlatte given his complacency which as you noted he hasn’t had so much as a challenger in many years. Most likely he would be fine but this looks like an R+4ish district.
If I were a Republican I would agree to this map in a heartbeat. I’m no expert on VA, but locking in 8R-3D for a decade just two years after 6D-5R and a six-point Obama victory doesn’t seem like a deal Democrats should accept, unless they can use it as leverage for a more favorable state legislature map. A Republican gerrymander could dismantle Connolly’s district, but that would endanger Wittman, Wolf, or Cantor in a D-leaning year and I think they would be foolish to try.
I assume a deadlock between House and Senate would lead to a court-drawn map. It’s hard to see how that could be worse than pure incumbent protection from the Democratic perspective, unless the Republicans are willing to make further concessions.
Thanks to Johnny’s post in another thread this morning the VA Redistricting Process is laid out in this handy cheat guide (thanks again for posting Johnny) and it includes population estimates for the districts. This map as laid out I would certainly not accept if I was a Democrat and let it go to court if needed. That said demands I would have if I were a Senate Democrat taking into account population trends:
1. VA-09 needs to significantly extended. This district is about 9% under ideal population. While now it is R controlled we had a strong feeling that once Rick Boucher retired that this district would flip. Guess that came a bit early. This will be a safe R seat but it should take territory from the 5th/6th that would be conservative anyway.
2. VA-02 and VA-03 are both under ideal by about 8%. Both need to expand. I am not sure what the impact would be with the VRA and Scott but his district is D+20 so he can afford more territory. Whittman’s district is way over populated (about 9%) so possibly a swap with Whittman and Rigell and Scott and Forbes would work to make these districts about ideal populations.
3. The biggest issue is that VA-10 is way over populated (about 19%!!) so a swamp of territory with Connolly and Wolf would likely still result in too big of a district. While Wolf is likely safe as long as he is in office, his retirement should have the goal of creating a swing district. His district is going to have to be condensed and I would force VA-05 and/or VA-06 into Prince William County as there is no way that the GOP would ever allow Cantor’s district to get any more liberal. Protecting Cantor needs to be the GOP’s #1 priority. While I don’t read that he is going to lose soon based on him not clearing 60% this year, in a good Democratic year if his district was partly Prince William based based he could face a potentially very competitive race and you simply can’t have that if you are the GOP. Your House Leadership should never have a seriously competitive race. Cantor has a mouth and if a top tier contender ever emerged a lot of money would be spent on that race.
Population link (see page 9): http://dlsgis.state.va.us/Ref/…