Redistricting will undoubtedly be a top – if not the top – topic around here over the next year or so. To get your engines started, here are a few early items from around the nation:
Indiana: Gov. Mitch Daniels released his list of legislative priorities for 2011, and it looks like he’s trying to burnish his bi-(or non-)partisan cred with this plank:
“Indiana must have a fair redistricting based on geographic and community of interest lines – not politics. And I’ll only sign one that meets that test.”
Daniels’ commitment will be seriously tested on this part of his platform, seeing as the GOP now controls both houses of the state lege (in addition to the governor’s mansion, of course). Incoming House speaker Brian Bosma also claims he’s a supporter of such reforms. We shall see.
Alabama: Meanwhile, down in Alabama, Republicans also control the trifecta – and seeing as it’s their first time, they’re licking their chops. As the Birmingham News puts it:
The likely result is a new congressional map that protects all six Republican congressmen and keeps intact the majority black district home to the only Democrat, according to U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Saks.
Here’s one stab at such a map. Can you do better?
Illinois: The upper hand is on the other foot in Illinois, one of the few redistricting bright spots for Dems. With Team Blue in charge of the trifecta here – and the Prairie State on track to lose a seat in reapportionment – the only question is which Republican freshman will get tossed in the woodchipper. Sadly, we have quite a few to pick from: Randy Hultgren, Adam Kinzinger, Bobby Schilling, Jim Walsh, and Bob Dold! But it’ll still be satisfying to see one of these guys get axed. (And if we’re really lucky, two of `em will get tossed into a single district together.)
New Jersey: For whatever reason, New Jersey chooses to be a freak state, holding its state-level elections in odd-numbered years. This is good news for horserace bloggers, but probably a pain in the ass for the folks in charge of drawing state lege district lines. They have to produce a map by Feb. 1 – which is barely a month after the Census Bureau will releases its state-level population data, and a month or so before they release redistricting-level data. In any event, I suggest you read the linked story, which details how Dems succeeded in getting a very favorable map ten years ago – circumstances which are unlikely to obtain this time around.
Dave’s Redistricting App: I realize there are quite a few new SSP members these days, so it’s possible not everyone is familiar with the awesome (and free!) Dave’s Redistricting App. It does exactly what it sounds like it ought to do – you can draw and re-draw maps to your heart’s content. The eponymous Dave often stops by in comments and with diaries of his own, in case you ever have questions. He’s also always looking for assistance in compiling partisan data for the app, so if you want to help improve the program, please click the link to find out how!
The Virginia Public Access Project has launched a redistricting portal, which currently contains a few interesting things like a map of Congressional/legislative districts showing their population gain/loss. There’s also a link to a newsletter from the Department of Legislative Services about redistricting. It’s an interesting read.
I think the right-wing Examiner article is offbase in saying that the CJ will be looking over his shoulder in his appointment of the independent member of the commission. If anything, Christie’s denial of tenure to Wallace will make Rabner more willing to go against Christie’s interests. But, as has been the case before, I think the CJ will play it down the middle and appoint a neutral as possible independent member.
Odds are that Republicans will get a legislative map more to their liking. But whether it will turn over both houses of the Legislature is an open questions. My guess will be that the Democrats will have a better chance of holding the senate than the assembly.
Is there a possibility a second VRA district would be required?
Is that how New Jersey redistricts?! The “independent” panel invariably deadlocks and then a random political science professor is appointed to break the tie?! That’s even worse than leaving it up to a partisan state legislature. Democracy fail.
Ugh, I hope California does not end up with an “independent redistricting committee” like New Jersey’s.
They are crowing about controlling so many state legislatures, but aren’t those most in states the gerrymandered the last time (PA, OH, etc). In other words, can the Republicans really gerrymander more seats this time or did the Democrats merely lose the opportunity to undo what the Repubs did last time?
I suppose that’s an indication that Daniels won’t do the north-south gerrymander against Donnelly, where the northern, heavily Democratic parts of IN-1 and IN-2 will be drawn together, creating a new rural district that is certain to be won by a Republican.
But even still, the Indiana House map has to be redrawn to be more favorable to Republicans. It’s ridiculously gerrymandered for the Democrats at this point.
Well, that’s what Dave’s Redistricting App and crowdsourcing to people like us SSPers is for.
Hi everyone,
Dave here. Just a heads up that I am very very close to releasing 2.0. It’s done and I’ve just been doing dome debugging and tightening it up. I think you are going to like it very much. I will post a diary announcing it by this Friday night.
And, I haven’t received any new partisan data for a while. I would certainly like to add more if any of you have something.
(David — it will be a different aspx page, because I’ll leave the older one there for a while, so you’ll need to update your link.)
Thanks!
I’ll download the app and play with it!