I applied the Wyoming Rule, stating that each congressional district in the country should have roughly the same population as the smallest state’s at-large district, to North Carolina. Redistricting is gruesome in North Carolina, and with 17 districts, it’s even nastier. I came up with four safe Democratic districts (all of them VRA districts, either with black majorities or minority-majority coalitions), eight probable Republican districts, and five swing districts, ensuring electoral politics in the Tarheel State with this map would be pretty exciting.
Marvel at the atrocity I have committed. For anyone who is curious, going off 2008 population estimates, each district contains roughly between 472,500 and 474,500 people.
NC-01 (safe Democratic)
41% white, 54% black
66% Obama, 34% McCain
This is one district I did manage to make more compact. It remains black-majority and acts as a Democratic vote sink in swingy eastern North Carolina. Rep. G.K. Butterfield, the Democrat who currently holds this seat, would have no new obstacles here.
NC-02 (swing)
78% white, 12% black
51% Obama, 48% McCain
This is where things start getting ugly. After surveying the map I drew for the Raleigh-Durham area, I felt like I needed to take a shower. Rep.-elect Renee Ellmers, a Tea Party Republican loathed by the GOP establishment for some reason, has been drawn out, as she currently resides in Dunn in Harnett County, which isn’t even a part of this district. Meanwhile, I believe Democratic Rep. Brad Miller of NC-13, who resides in Raleigh, has been drawn into the district. Realistically, Ellmers has little chance of holding the current NC-02 in 2012, and Republicans would be better off running a more competent candidate in this district anyway.
NC-03 (safe Republican)
78% white, 18% black
41% Obama, 58% McCain
This district hasn’t changed much, absorbing some of the more conservative parts of NC-01 and ceding a bit of ground where the African American population has risen at a disproportionate rate. The only major change is that it has been extended along the Atlantic coast, absorbing some of the southern suburbs of Wilmington. Republican Rep. Walter B. Jones of Farmville, a town in western Pitt County, would easily win another term here.
NC-04 (safe Democratic)
42% white, 44% black, 9% Latino
73% Obama, 26% McCain
If you thought NC-02 was ugly, this is even worse. It effectively combines the African American precincts of Raleigh, Durham, Cary, Garner, Sanford, and Fayetteville, linking them via spindly threads of rural countryside and wilderness. Rep. David Price, the incumbent Democrat here, has been drawn out of this district. Price lives in Chapel Hill, home to the University of North Carolina. Chapel Hill, for what it’s worth, is just too white to include in this district without the risk of upsetting its VRA status depending on demographic rates. Democrats should romp in this district regardless.
NC-05 (likely Republican)
69% white, 25% black
45% Obama, 55% McCain
Northern North Carolina is mostly white and mostly Republican, but the inclusion of Vance County and parts of Nash County, as well as a cut of ultra-liberal Chapel Hill, in this district make it a bit less absurdly partisan than the current iteration. Republican Rep. Virginia Foxx, who lives in Avery County, would have to move in order to run for reelection here, but I’m inclined to think somebody a bit younger and less emblematic of conservative obstinacy would make a better candidate for the GOP here anyway. A Democrat could certainly win this seat in a good year, and indeed, it is possible Price has been drawn into this district (I’m not exactly sure where he claims his address). But the quandary of having part of a liberal college town in an otherwise Republican district is that students might not get out the vote for a Blue Dog, and socially conservative ancestral Democrats might not vote for a progressive.
NC-06 (safe Republican)
81% white, 11% black
43% Obama, 56% McCain
This district effectively drowns what is left of liberal Chapel Hill in the bathtub of rural conservatism. In my first drawing, this district had not changed a lot from the current version represented by Rep. Howard Coble, a long-serving Republican, but the new version crawls evilly into Orange County to keep Chapel Hill out of a swingier district. If Coble wants another term, he should have no problem getting one in this district, even if he has to run against Price, who is probably drawn in here. As with NC-05, though, Democrats will have a wicked balancing act to perform, as well as a lot of electoral ground to make up, if they want to flip this seat.
NC-07 (safe Republican)
71% white, 21% black
42% Obama, 57% McCain
This redrawing would represent a fait accompli for the Republicans, drawing out Rep. Mike McIntyre, the Lumberton-based Democratic incumbent. It’s another district with a face only a mother could love, but the loss of Wilmington’s majority-black northern precincts and the excision of outlying Democratic-friendly areas like Robeson County take it from being a swing district to being a fairly solid Republican district, especially with McIntyre out of the picture. It trades a few rural precincts with NC-03 with no real effect otherwise, simply a matter of working out the numbers.
NC-08 (safe Democratic)
47% white, 33% black, 12% Native
58% Obama, 41% McCain
If you were curious as to where McIntyre went, he was drawn into this district currently held by Rep. Larry Kissell, a fellow Democrat. This new drawing sucks in pieces of Wilmington, Fayetteville, and Aberdeen in exchange for Cabarrus and Stanly counties. It is narrowly a minority-majority coalition district, with a not-insignificant Native American population, and it should be solid for Democrats regardless of whether Kissell, McIntyre, or someone else is the party’s 2012 nominee.
NC-09 (likely Republican)
81% white, 11% black
44% Obama, 55% McCain
Despite sacrificing its southern and western portions in favor of extending further north into Cabarrus County, this district serves the same function as it did before: dividing Charlotte along racial lines. Republican Rep. Sue Myrick, who I believe would still reside in this redrawn district, isn’t going to have any trouble getting reelected here. In the event Myrick has been drawn out, any other Republican might have a bit tougher haul but would probably still be favored.
NC-10 (safe Republican)
85% white, 8% black
41% Obama, 57% McCain
Okay kid, here’s where things get racially homogeneous. This redrawn district would be overwhelmingly Republican if it didn’t stick a long spur into liberal Asheville, intentionally diluting that population center’s influence. Instead it’s just very Republican, and it’s hard to see a Democrat picking it up. Rep. Patrick McHenry of Cherryville, a Republican, has been drawn out of this district with its move north from Gaston County.
NC-11 (safe Republican)
87% white, 7% black
40% Obama, 59% McCain
This is that pesky district where Shuler, a Blue Dog, seems to be hanging on just fine despite determined attempts to dislodge him. This redrawing is effectively just the most conservative parts of western North Carolina, with its sole purpose being to get rid of Shuler. Republicans would benefit from a shrunk-down district excising Democratic-friendly Asheville, and indeed, Shuler winning a district now-President Barack Obama lost by 19 points in 2008 seems like a stretch even for him.
NC-12 (safe Democratic)
38% white, 49% black, 8% Latino
75% Obama, 24% McCain
This is another slimmed-down version of an existing monstrosity. Democratic Rep. Melvin Watt’s district is famous for being one of the most egregious examples of gerrymandering in the county. Fortunately, this Wyoming Rule map puts it to shame, with multiple examples of even grosser gerrymandered districts. The smaller version of this district omits the spur into Winston-Salem and includes only southern and eastern Greensboro. Despite my personal distaste for Watt, he would have no excuse not to win reelection here.
NC-13 (swing)
79% white, 15% black
47% Obama, 52% McCain
This district simply ended up in a completely different place than it currently occupies. The current NC-13 includes most of Wake County and a great deal of northern North Carolina, using Raleigh’s Democratic tilt to offset the conservative tendencies of Rockingham, Caswell, Person, and Granville counties in what amounts to a big fat Democratic gerrymander. Because there is literally no overlap between the current and redrawn versions of this district, Miller has been drawn out and placed in NC-02, as previously mentioned. The new NC-13 would cover a swath of the central part of the state, including the cities of Kannapolis and Concord in Cabarrus County, stretching down to the South Carolina border west of Charlotte (there is actually an outside chance that Myrick, the NC-09 incumbent, may find herself living here). Because of the inclusion of Cherryville, Gaston County, the long-serving Republican McHenry has certainly been drawn into this district. It’s a swing district, and a savvy Blue Dog Democrat could win it, but I think it tilts Republican, especially if McHenry or Myrick run.
NC-14 (likely Republican)
90% white, 6% black
43% Obama, 55% McCain
This new district in North Carolina under the Wyoming Rule is mostly left over from Shuler’s gutted NC-11 and McHenry’s dismembered NC-10, with Foxx drawn in along with parts of the current incarnation of NC-05. It’s not as strongly Republican as it might have been, but most of liberal Asheville is here putting a weight on the scale due to its size. Considering that Shuler might rather move here from NC-11 to run, I would love to see him battle it out with Foxx. The demographics here ultimately would work in Foxx’s favor whether she ran against Shuler or another Democrat.
NC-15 (swing)
72% white, 18% black
48% Obama, 51% McCain
Yes, you’re seeing it right: this district includes the east and west sides, but not the middle third, of Harnett County. For all its gerrymandered-to-hell appearance, this is a swing district, carved up in a hideous way partly to permit the existence of the two VRA districts it borders, partly to keep it competitive enough to make surrounding districts more solidly partisan. Ellmers has been drawn into this district, although I’m not sure it’s conservative enough for her to win. Getting around in this district looks like it would be hell, and the cultural incongruity between Durham and Dunn might pose an issue in an election year.
NC-16 (swing)
74% white, 18% black
47% Obama, 52% McCain
Amazing how a district of leftovers can end up being perhaps the most compact one on the entire map. This all-new district covers most of Winston-Salem, along with rural Yadkin County and large swaths of Stokes, Surry, and Wilkes counties. I don’t believe any member of the House of Representatives lives within these district boundaries, but either a conservative Democrat or a cautious Republican could win here. It’s a swing district, but it tilts Republican.
NC-17 (swing)
78% white, 16% black
47% Obama, 52% McCain
The last new district is materially similar to the previous one in some ways. Demographically, it comes out looking much the same. It includes most of Guilford and Rockingham counties, serving to sponge up Democratic-friendly areas that could change NC-05 or NC-06 from being Republican districts to being swing districts, as this Republican-tilting district is. I don’t think a current House member lives here, meaning we would probably see a new face in Congress representing it in 2013. I think that face is likely to be Republican.
Comments, either on the map or on the Wyoming Rule?
Man, when you forewarned us about atrocities, you weren’t kidding. That map is so ugly, it compelled me to put aside my disgust towards North Carolina redistricting and see if I couldn’t come up with something prettier. 🙂
More seriously, it was your maintaining the 12th that threw me for a loop. With Wyoming-sized districts, I figured there had to be a prettier way to make a minority-majority district in the western half of the state — especially once I looked in Dave’s App and saw how many African Americans you left in your 5th and 17th.
Here’s my version:
(I can post some close-ups if you’re interested.)
Top-line statistics
5 safe D, 1 tossup, 2-5 likely R, 6-9 safe R. All five safe D are majority-minority.
(I modeled the rankings from your take on the percentages — the range is because I couldn’t tell exactly where you consider the likely-safe boundary to be.)
NC-01 (Blue) — safe D
42% white, 51% black
63% Obama, 37% McCain
Mine stretches slightly further west and not quite as far south. Butterfield remains fine.
NC-02 (Green) — likely/safe R
70% white, 18% black
44% Obama, 55% McCain
The current 2nd’s land mass is largely in the counties collaring Wake County. Mine mimics that, but is rotated about 120 degrees clockwise. Ellmers (as well as Etheridge) remain in the district.
NC-03 (Purple) — safe R
72% white, 22% black
44% Obama, 56% McCain
Remains similar to yours and the existing 3rd. Since my 1st went slightly west instead of south, my 3rd stays more compact, without the arm towards Wilmington. Jone’s Farmville remains in the district.
NC-04 (Red) — safe D
45% white, 37% black, 12% Hispanic
75% Obama, 24% McCain
I was able to draw a minority-majority district just in Raleigh-Durham without the spindles. My 4th is just slightly more white than yours but significantly less black, presumably making up the difference with other racial minorities. I used the 4th to pack in Democrats, include all of Chapel Hill, most of Durham, about half of Raleigh. Price is fine from a residency standpoint, but with a newly racially diverse electorate, he may face primary troubles. (Wikipedia says the current 4th is the most Democratic majority-white district in the South outside of the Miami and Washington DC areas.)
NC-05 (Yellow) — safe R
90% white
43% Obama, 56% McCain
You moved the 5th over to where the current 13th is. I left it closer to in-place. Functionally, this is your 14th district — including residency for Foxx (who appears not to live in her current district.)
NC-06 (Teal) — safe R
81% white, 10% black
37% Obama, 62% McCain
The new most-Republican district in North Carolina. It’s almost a neat rectangle to the south of the Triad. Wikipedia says that Coble lives in Greensboro, which puts him into your 17th (my 16th). If so, this is an open seat for whichever Tea Partier wants it.
NC-07 (Grey) — likely/safe R
76% white, 16% black
44% Obama, 55% McCain
Roughly similar in concept to your 7th, this version likewise creates a Republican-oriented open seat by drawing McIntyre out of the district.
NC-08 (Slate Blue) — safe D
43% white, 34% black, 10% native, 10% Hispanic
59% Obama, 40% McCain
But McIntyre lands softly in mine, getting a district roughly consisting of the northern half of his current one. It’s minority-majority, but not as dominated by one racial minority as most such districts — McIntyre probably wouldn’t be the target of racially-oriented primary. (Current 8th district holder Kissell lives in my new 12th!)
NC-09 (Cyan) — likely/safe R
80% white
44% Obama, 55% McCain
Much like your 9th, my version of Myrick’s district sticks to the east side of Charlotte. Not much else to say.
NC-10 (Magenta) — safe R
81% white
43% Obama, 56% McCain
It’s inspired directly by yout 10th, but I keep McHenry in his district.
NC-11 (Lime) — safe R
82% white, 10% black
40% Obama, 58% McCain
Again, inspired directly by your 11th. Shuler still lives here, but without Asheville, he’s got a tough fight to stay in office.
NC-12 (cornflower blue) — safe D
35% white, 45% black, 15% Hispanic
70% Obama, 30% McCain
Instead of linking Charlotte and the Triad, I decided to try make seperate minority-majority districts for each. Here’s Charlotte’s — taking in the northern half of the city and then running east along the South Carolina border to help disassemble to the current 8th. Kissell and Watt both live in this district. I expect that Watt would win the primary.
NC-13 (peach) — toss-up
74% white, 11% black
52% Obama, 47% McCain
You transplanted the 13th; I sucked it wholely into Wake County proper. This is basically my equivalent of your 2nd. Miller should live here. Incumbency is powerful, but he could go down in another year like this one.
NC-14 (olive drab) — likely R
76% white, 14% black
45% Obama, 54% McCain
My equivalent of your 13th, although mine is further north. This is an open seat that should favor the Republicans in most years.
NC-15 (orange) — likely R
71% white, 19% black
45% Obama, 54% McCain
Mirrors my version of the 2nd, collaring the other half of the Triangle from the north. This is an open seat that should favor the Republicans in most years.
NC-16 (neon green) — safe R
83% white
42% Obama, 56% McCain
Vaguely similar to your 16th, mine takes in less of Winston-Salem and more of Greensboro, while hugging the Virginia border to the north. So far as I can tell, this is where Coble lives. He should like it okay.
NC-17 (dark blue) — safe D
42% white, 43% black, 12% Hispanic
68% Obama, 32% McCain
The other half of the severed 12th. Takes in the minority-heavy parts of the Triad, then winds its way northeast to cover some African-American-heavy rural counties adjacent to the 1st. This is an open seat.
Summary
My version cedes an additional district to the Democrats in the form of minority-majority district, but cuts the number of true toss-ups down to one, resulting in a more heavily Republican map over-all. And it has about 300% fewer atrocities! 😉
Anyway, I hope this doesn’t steal your thunder. I’ve enjoyed tossing around redistricting ideas with you over the past couple of weeks. I just wanted to throw a different map out there for consideration.
I was going to redistrict Texas with the Wyoming rule but found out it would be 51 seats!
Just saw this in another thread. Supposedly, North Carolina now has compactness and whole-county standards, outside of whatever VRA mandates. That would have some consequences for our maps.
This 2nd district would definitely be very swingy, as Wake County has been rather erratic lately (in 2008, Democrats regained the county commission, held 6 of 9 state state house seats, and Obama and the other statewide Dems won easily; in 2009 we lost the school board to the Republicans, and in 2010 the Republicans regained the county commission, picked up a state house seat, and Burr narrowly won the county). It would basically just depend on the national climate and voter turnout. Still, Brad Miller would have a shot in a decent year for Democrats.
David Price might just move to your 4th district and run there, or Bob Etheridge could stage a comeback in this seat since it has a lot of the most Democratic parts of his current (soon to be former) district.
A Republican from Eastern NC would probably win your 5th district since it is really more Eastern NC based and that area went Republican this year in the state legislative races.
Seeing UNC put in the same district as Stanly County kind of made me want to throw up. Chapel Hill is the most liberal town in the state and putting it in with Republican areas in the Piedmont and Charlotte exurbs to get a 56% McCain district is pretty ridiculous.
McIntyre would win the primary against Kissell (and then the general) in your new 8th district, just because it has so much of his old territory and he has been in office much longer than Kissell. However, he would have to develop a more liberal voting record or he would be vulnerable to a future primary challenge.
McHenry would just move to or run in this new 10th district since he lives right next to it and he already represents most of it. No problems for him in the general election.
Your 13th district is more Republican than the Obama numbers suggest and I suspect that incoming Republican Speaker of the House Thom Tillis of Cornelius in north Mecklenburg County would run and win. No reason for McHenry or Myrick to run here since their current districts are pretty much preserved.
Shuler would run in the 11th district since it has his Haywood County base and much of his current territory. He would have a much harder time, especially if he had a decent GOP opponent, but he would be tough to beat since his Blue Dog voting record and run against Pelosi have helped him the past two cycles.
Virginia Foxx would no doubt run in your 14th district and probably win, but having North Asheville in her district would be an electoral liability if she continued to be such an embarrassment. However, Shuler wouldn’t run here since it is so different from his current district territory-wise and doesn’t have his base in Haywood County.
Your 15th district could flip in a good year for either party, but it’s hard to tell since it has so many areas with nothing in common (Durham County, Randolph County, Chatham County, and Johnston County are all extremely different).
Your 16th and 17th districts would be competitive but probably lean Republican. Coble (from Summerfield in northwest Guilford) would run in the 17th district and when he retires, incoming GOP state senate president Phil Berger (who represents Rockingham and Guilford Counties) would replace him. If Linda Garrou (the next Democratic senate leader from Winston-Salem) ran in your 16th district against the other senator from Forsyth County, Republican Peter Brunstetter, it would be a really interesting race.
Interesting map though and hopefully you will find my comments informative. Great work!