The Census Bureau has released its 2010 reapportionment numbers. All of today’s data dump can be seen here; the most important items of data are here, in the form of the map showing today’s winners and losers.
If this graph looks familiar, I’m using the last few rounds of Election Data Services projections as a yardstick for the actual results. (Kudos to them — or to the Census Bureau’s annual estimates, really. They basically nailed it.)
| State | Actual | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 1 | 1 | 1 / 2 | 2 | 2 |
| California | 0 | 0 | -1 / 0 | -1 / 0 | 0 / 1 |
| Florida | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 |
| Georgia | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Illinois | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Iowa | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Louisiana | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Massachusetts | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Michigan | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Minnesota | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 / 0 |
| Missouri | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Nevada | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| New Jersey | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| New York | -2 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -2 |
| North Carolina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 / 1 | 0 / 1 |
| Ohio | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 |
| Oregon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 / 1 | 1 |
| Pennsylvania | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| South Carolina | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 / 1 |
| Texas | 4 | 4 | 3 / 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Utah | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Washington | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
A few various other tidbits shared at today’s news conference: the fastest growth rates, among states, were Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, and Texas. Slowest growth were Michigan (the only one to decline since 2000), Rhode Island, Louisiana, Ohio, and New York. With a national population of 308,745,538, the average House district will have 710K constituents (up from 646K in 2000).
Gentlemen, start your redistricting engines!
UPDATE: Courtesy of Jeffmd, we’ve got the last 15 and first 15 (in other words, which states were most on the bubble, in order). Minnesota was the narrowest escapee, holding its 8th seat at North Carolina’s expense by less than 15,000 people.
| # | Last 15 | # | Next 15 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 435th | Minnesota 8th | 436th | North Carolina 14th | |
| 434th | California 53rd | 437th | Missouri 9th | |
| 433rd | Texas 36th | 438th | New York 28th | |
| 432nd | Washington 10th | 439th | New Jersey 13th | |
| 431st | Florida 27th | 440th | Montana 2nd | |
| 430th | South Carolina 7th | 441st | Louisiana 7th | |
| 429th | Georgia 14th | 442nd | Oregon 6th | |
| 428th | California 52nd | 443rd | Ohio 17th | |
| 427th | Pennsylvania 18th | 444th | Virginia 12th | |
| 426th | Texas 35th | 445th | California 54th | |
| 425th | New York 27th | 446th | Illinois 19th | |
| 424th | Michigan 14th | 447th | Texas 37th | |
| 423rd | Illinois 18th | 448th | Massachusetts 10th | |
| 422nd | California 51st | 449th | Pennsylvania 19th | |
| 421st | Alabama 7th | 450th | Florida 28th |
the Dave-mappers are ready.
Only state to lose population since 2000.
looks like a twelve vote gain for GOP in elec. college
who in NJ gets to get axed? I presume either Pallone or Holt.
Do we know yet which state just missed out on a seat this time? 436th on list?
I can see it now…
with California just barely keeping its 53rd seat.
In Missouri, Minnesota, North Carolina & California. It’s sue the census time!
Utah sued to try to get it, claiming Mormon missionaries abroad were unfairly excluded. It will be interesting to see if NC does anything now that the tables are turned.
the more I think the future of the new IA-03 depends on whether Dallas County is included. Dallas was by far the fastest-growing county in Iowa, and was among the fastest-growing counties in the nation during the past decade. It’s immediately to the west of Polk County (Des Moines area) and contains lots of suburban sprawl/exurban development.
During the 1990s Dallas and Polk were both in the same Congressional district (which was then IA-04), but after the 2000 redistricting Dallas got thrown into the new IA-04, while Polk was the population center of the new IA-03. So, Tom Latham has been representing Dallas County for the past decade. It would be a huge help to him to have Dallas in a Polk County-based IA-03.
Most 4-district Iowa maps I’ve seen put Dallas and Polk together. That includes abgin’s effort and two of the three maps discussed here (the ones labeled N and K).
I would like to see Dallas go into Steve King’s district, the new IA-04.
National average was 9.7%
Fasted growing state that still lost a seat – Missouri at 7.0%
Slowest growing state that still gained a seat – Washington at 14.1%
Full image here:
http://2010.census.gov/news/im…
It’ll probably overtake it sometime this decade.
Rhode Island is only 60,831 people larger than Montana. So once again the smallest districts in the country will be RI-1 and RI-2 (followed by WY-AL) and the largest will by MT-AL followed by DE-AL.
Mostly expected, but nonetheless good. As I’ve said before, this likely means NV-03 will be made safer for Joe Heck while NV-04 becomes at least a Lean Dem seat. And while I’ve expected either Former Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley or incoming Assembly Speaker John Oceguera (who, btw, will be termed out in 2012) to be the instant NV-04 frontrunner, it STILL looks like Dina Titus isn’t going away quietly. I guess she has something on Buckley & Oceguera, since it sounds an awful lot like she has her sights on NV-04.
Should make for a(n even more) fun 2012 primary…
but more of nasty surprise for democrats.
1. Its hard to put a smiley face on a second seat for Florida.
2. The second seat loss in NY almost makes a 1 & 1 shared party loss inevitable.
3. The democrats under the gun in MO as VRA issues would seem to weaken Carnahan plus nearly all of the population loss in the state is in St Louis area.
4. Washington could be a bright spot but even there its up to a nonpartisan redistricting board that could do just about anything. There are three democrat incumbents who won with narrow margins so things could be unsettled there as well?
So on the edges slightly worse for the democrats then expected.
Would have given Bush 284 electoral votes to Al Gore’s 253 (assuming the DC elector didnt abstain) instead of Bush’s 271 to Al Gore’s 267 (again counting the DC elector for Gore).
That gives the GOP +14 electoral votes in 10 years.
http://senate.gov/legislative/…
The following 11 Republicans voted for cloture:
Lamar Alexander (TN)
Bob Bennett (UT) — lame duck, defeated for re-nomination at state GOP convention.
Scott Brown (MA)
Thad Cochran (MS)
Susan Collins (ME)
Bob Corker (TN)
Johnny Isakson (GA)
Richard Lugar (IN)
Lisa Murkowski (AK) — Was defeated for renomination in GOP primary, but apparently won the general election as write-in candidate.
Olympia Snowe (ME)
George Voinovich (OH) — lame duck, retired in 2010.
The following five Senators missed the vote: Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), who is retiring; Sen. Kit Bond (R-MO), who is retiring, Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS), who is now the Governor-elect of Kansas; Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH), who is retiring; and Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR), who has been recovering from surgery for early-stage prostate cancer.
If Wyden’s absent for the final vote too and everyone else makes it, they only need 66 to reach the 2/3rds threshold since it has to be 2/3rds of the chamber who are present.
It’s way too early to be looking so far into the future, but I just had to post the question – is Maine looking at being a one-representative (i.e. At-large) district after the 2020 or 2030 Census? I can’t imagine that state losing one of their districts a decade or two from now, as they’ve had two Reps. for a while. Perhaps the state isn’t growing much in population – I don’t know, I haven’t been there in a long time.
AZ although a commission draws districts the fast growing conservative Phoenix suburbs will likely have to be given an additional seat. Had AZ picked up 2 seats the other could have been a Latino VRA district. Giffords district likely becomes more compact and Dem friendly.
NV the 4th district will be Dem leaning but Heck will be helped by this as well resulting in a 2-2 delegation.
UT the GOP obviously will draw new district to favor them. Only question is do they go after Matheson too.
OH it will be hard for the GOP to get rid of two Democrats. Sutton’s district will go for sure.
MI Peters will be drawn in with Levin
MO Carnahan is odd man out
NY two loses mean one upstate GOP district and one downstate non minority Dem district will go.
PA Critz will be without a district. Holden may get a super Dem district in a band of territory from Harrisburg to Scranton. Trading territory with Barletta. GOP will attempt to strengthen their suburban Philly districts too.
GA new GOP district north of Atlanta. Barrow may be targeted too.
SC new coastal GOP district
LA one GOPer will be w/o a district
IA commission with likely Boswell/Latham matchup
MN no loss of seat and GOP state leg control means Bachmann will be here to kick around still
IL Dems need to go for gold here. Draw Schrock and Schilling together in a Dem quad city/Peoria district. Draw more Dems into the Dold and Walsh districts as well as Biggerts.
IN Donnelly will be targeted
NC Ellmers district will be made more Republican. Miller could lose a lot of Dems to Price making his district vulnerable and Kissell will lose some minority Charlotte precincts to Watts leaving Kissell in tough shape
FL once VRA districts are drawn GOP will still be able to draw a very favorable map even assuming the redistricting amendment stands up in court.
TX four new seats means 2 for each party with the DEMs being VRA districts
CA hard to say with the commission. Likely to see more Latinos in Congress though but maybe at the expense of other minority or white Dem incumbents.
WA Herrara will need to shed some population likely Dem leaning area around Olympia helping her. Reichert loses some Dem territory and gains some GOP voters from Hastings. New 10th will be Dem leaning
MA -1 for Dems
NJ a Lance/Holt matchup
That has to be somewhat disconcerting, no?
If the old Western block (US and Europe) is lagging in population growth behind India, China, Brazil and other emerging economies, it is only a matter of time before we lose our economic (probably happening right under our noses) and military edge. I don’t think we’ll lose our cultural attaction to the world at large, say w/r/t China or India, but who knows.
We have more than enough land and resources to absorb at least 150 million more people and I think the only way that works is with a more flexible but economic based immigration policy. We seem to be going backwards in what made us great in the 19th and 20th century.
Hopefully I’ll be back later with what would be my “Compromise 8 Seat Minnesota Map!” (That’s in the voice monster truck rally ads are always in.)
So close to the removal of Michelle Bachmanns district… hopefully the Minnesota legislature finds a way to rip her district to pieces regardless….
in NJ/VA/MS/LA/KY?
Does anyone have any idea why Periello voted against the Food Safety Bill today? He was one of only eight Democrats to vote against it, and the rest were mostly Blue Dogs. Perhaps the bill negatively impacts his district specifically in some way? Strange way to end an amazing term.
See The Philadelphia Jewish Voice http://blog.pjvoice.com/diary/… for a detailed analysis including which state just barely avoided losing a seat, how this would have affected the Obama-McCain election, and who will control the redistricting process in the states which are winning and losing seats.
previously thought. Minnesota would have lost a seat if it had 8,739 fewer people, so it had just over 1,000 people per district to spare.
The data is on page 1 of this 4 page PDF from EDS:
http://electiondataservices.co…
North Carolina lost out on a 14th seat by 15,754 people, which was the number reported in the press conference. Missouri was short by just 15,029.
PPPolling is out with numbers on Nelson’s re-elect. He leads all comers, except Jeb Bush, but his job approval & ballott test are all very enemic;
Fav/Unfav
Nelson 36/33 (33 not sure)
Bush 51/40
Mack 20/24 (56% have no opinion w/ all those new ppl in FL, does anyone remember his dad anymore?)
Lemieux 16/27 (58% no opinion)
Bush 49
Nelson 44
Nelson 44
Connie Mack 36
Nelson 47
Lemieux 36
Nelson is a tough cookie and a solid fit for a Dem to win in FL, but this is going to be a whole different world than what he faced in ’06 (best atmosphere for Dems since ’74 & running against the worst statewide candidate in state history).
I’d rate it a lean Dem until either Bush gets in (no chance) or one of the others show they can put together a statewide operation & get their name ID and define themselves before Nelson does it for them. Anyone know how much money Nelson has in the bank?
And I was thinking TX would win only +3 and FL only +1.
They are interesting changes, and surely not as bad for the democrats except the new gain for Texas.