Since it is one of the states the Dems completely control, I decided to look some at what could be done in West Virginia. Two objectives came to mind:
– Shore up Rahall
– Make life difficult for McKinley
Here is my first map:
The second district (in green) is designed to soak up as many Republican areas as possible and is around 61% McCain. The first district (in blue) is now up about 45% Obama, while the third district clocks in at just over 46% Obama. This is compared with 42% that Obama got in both districts in their current form.
Capito Moore lives in Charleston, so she might run for statewide office rather than in the new second, but should she decide to stay in congress her non-residency should be a non-issue, given her popularity.
This got me thinking: Is 46% Obama really the best we can do in West Virginia? Only 7 counties went for Obama and they’re scattered throughout the state.
This lead to my second map:
The 11 counties entirely contained in the 2nd (green) district went for Obama by just over 2000 votes. Once you include the connective strips, it probably flips to McCain, but not by very much. With precinct data I’m sure it would be possible to create something similar that actually went Dem in 2008.
I wouldn’t actually recommend such a map. Not only does it strengthen McKinley, it puts Capito Moore in the intended D second district and Rahall and his Beckley base in the now more Republican third. Nevertheless, I thought it an interesting experiment.
Creative, but I almost vomited after seeing these maps
and lets see if my crystal ball can reach into the hollers of West Virginia. It can and I reached a conclusion.
Here’s an astounding fact. I glanced at WV the other day. You nearly perfectly balance the population in the state three ways by taking Mason county from CD2 and giving it to CD3. Then take Jackson county from CD2 and give to CD1. Leave every other county in the same CD as it is now and the map is done and is in balance.
My crystal ball tells me that really could happen. What’s really strange is that Mason county is a democratic leaning county and Jackson county leans republican so the political composition of the seats remain nearly unchanged.
Lets my take on why we might see my scenerio play out.
CD1 McKinley is in the crosshairs. It looks like former Congressman Mollohan might try for his seat. Does he want new territory? No same old same old. Lets keep things as they are would be in his favor because
CD2 congresswoman Capito looks like she is running for Gov. There are a ton of ambitous pols looking at this seat any move to hurt McKinley is likely to make her seat safer GOP and that goes for making Rahall stronger.
CD3 Rahall certainly does not want to be weaker and shoring up might please him yet sometimes its the folks you know rather then folks who do not know. Why should he give up any of his loyal voters?? Plus look at Capito’s district. Its impossible to pick up any counties in her district without breaking that line and causing changes in CD1. For a variety of reasons WV does not split counties in redisticting.
So because Rahall wants to stay about same politically and CD2 is viewed as some as a likely target plus Mollohan will want to keep CD1 intact my idea might just be the plan. Shift one county south and one county north then call it a day.
I don’t care about how aesthetically pleasing districts are (in fact I find such a position freakin’ bizarre), but these are just downright nuts in terms of both keeping communities of interest intact and in terms what the politicians will want. Splitting apart Morgantown/Fairmont from Clarksburg? Makes no sense. Giving Nick Rahall the Eastern Panhandle? No.
If your goal is to help Democrats, there’ve been maps posted on WV Blue that make a lot of sense – basically link the Northern Panhandle and Charleston down the Ohio (which would combine McKinley and Capito’s districts), while creating an incumbent-free by combining North Central WV with the Eastern Panhandle. I think that makes a lot of sense in terms of holding together communities of interest, and it has fun political/partisan effects.
Though sure, the easiest thing in the world (so perhaps the likeliest scenario) is simply to shift Mason County.
I like very much. Both options are very interesting.
West Virginia was once a solidly Dukakis state. And is still a strong union state. Gore losing it was considered somewhat of an upset but it was a close election. 2004 was also close though not as close. Kerry was a patrician liberal and not the best fit. And with 9-11 fresh in peoples memories and a war going on it was just a strange time. And of course Obama was an even worse fit culturally. And 2010 was awful for Democrats most everywhere.
My question is how much is West Virginia realigning? Is it becoming more like say fellow Appalachian state Kentucky which realligned hardcore. Or is the Democratic brand still strong and we’ve just seen a few bad election cycles? In a “neutral” electoral environment how does a “generic” Democrat (I’ll arbitrarily pick Richard Gephardt who has many qualities of genericness if you want an actual candidate) do in this state?