25 Rules to Gain 25 U.S. House Seats.

We need to gain 25 seats in order to retake the House of Representatives.  It should also be stated clearly that the best possible chance we will have to re-take a House majority is in 2012. Presidential Year demographics skew in our favor and Presidential percentage of the vote matches House percentage near perfectly.[Obviously if we lose the White House we didn’t retake Congress]

It is  true that our attention appears to be on what will happen in the next Congress but remember over the next two years there are only two realistic options, compromise or gridlock, It is easier to prefer grid lock, but however we got to this very unfortunate situation we have to focus on getting out. If you don’t like comprise, we can put Nancy Pelosi back in the Speaker’s office and she is an excellent check on compromise.

However to do this all of us have to attempt to be on the same page, and as importantly learn the rules that can aid us in this endeavor.  With that understanding I present the 25 rules to gain 25 Seats. First the list followed by the explanation.

1. All Republicans are every Republican.

2. Ignore incumbency.

3. Candidates matter less than you think.

4. How a member votes in Congress matters less than you think.

5. Run where the water is warm.

6. Fund all candidates in warm water.

7. Be wary of cold water.

8. Be wary of reruns.

9. Persuasion is overrated.

10. Start with the base and work out.

11. Remember who the base is.

12. Partisan performance is two numbers, Obama 08 high/Kerry 04 low

13. Don’t under challenge.

14. Look for ethical weaknesses but don’t over rely on them.

15. Remember and reinvent field.

16. Being a House Republican shouldn’t be fun.

17. Use new media to expand who can help your campaign.

18. Let candidates be themselves.

19. Run with the President where it is wise, be careful where it is not.

20.  If you can’t use any National Democrats, you probably can’t win.

21. Make sure to run with Local Candidates.

22. Peopleraise while you fundraise.

23. Know your vote Goal

24. The last votes are in ideas you haven’t thought of yet.

25. Start now

1. All Republicans are every Republican

  This is the most important rule of all.  The Republicans in general, but House Republicans in particular, say an incredible number of ridiculous, incendiary things. In fact since taking office if you are keeping track at home they have had at least one such event every week.  Whether it is through blogs, MSNBC, and definitely earned media  and possibly paid media,  these comments can not escape scrutiny.  House Republicans like  Jim Gerlach in PA 6 and Dave Reichert in WA 8 should be forced to defend the Bachmann’s and the  Barton’s on a constant basis. Since Republicans beat us over the head with  being “Pelosi “Democrats, they must become the Bachmann Republicans.

2. Ignore Incumbency.

       This is probably the most radical thing in this memo and yet it is absolutely essential for Democrats to gain and then hold a majority. We need to radically throw out the notion of incumbency being an important factor in making decision about where to defend and where to attack.  National issues have overwhelmed how hard a member of Congress may work , and how much his or her office does  in the district. Districts  now reach  over 700,000, the incumbent advantages is shrinking.  Now Incumbent re-election rates still continued to be very high but in many ways  these Incumbent re-election rates are in fact becoming partisan election rates.  Put another way, it is not surprising incumbent Democrats and Republicans win in districts which by their nature[Such as Performance in last three Presidential Elections] elected Democrats or Republicans, once you take those districts out, Re-election rates begin to drop dramatically. Even if the Incumbency factor matters, there simply won’t be enough seats available if we act like it does. We must ignore incumbency in order to win the seats we need.

3. Candidates Matter less than you think.

     This is another somewhat paradoxical statement that  happens to be true.  Those of us deeply immersed in politics have come to believe that recruiting good candidates is essential to the process and it is. But often times the expectations we have are too high and when they aren’t met there is unfortunate tendency to believe candidates who don’t meet up to our standards can’t win. This is true from both a DCCC and a blogosphere perspective.  The truth is that  mediocre candidates win and sometimes great candidates lose.  That was true in 2006 and it was true in 2010.  As importantly for setting our goal of retaking the house in 2012 there were many near misses across a number of races in both 06 and 10.  In many cases these near misses came about because there was either doubt or neglect shown our candidate or theirs. Without that doubt or neglect there would have been additional Democratic members of Congress. We can not allow doubt or neglected to cost even one seat in 2012.

4. How a member votes in Congress matters less than you think.

    The details of how a Member of Congress votes doesn’t matter much when compared to the bills that actually pass. This lesson was made abundantly clear in 2010, maybe a member here or there saved themselves with a no vote on Healthcare but in general what passes or doesn’t pass is what matters not how an individual votes. Votes are in the mood toward collective punishment and this is an important lesson because you can punish  any member for the consequences of house votes, and the consequences for voting with your party are mostly minimal since you will be blamed for what happens regardless.  This means in general the right thing to do for a member of congress is to worry far less about the political ramifications of  particular votes because bigger factors will triumph over them.

5.  Run where the water is warm.

        This violates a sacred 2006 Dean strategy but it is a necessity. It is of the utmost importance that we field strong Democratic house candidates in the districts that   President Obama won in 2008 which are now represented by Republicans the number will likely shake out to somewhere around 50 seats.  It is much more important to run candidates in these 40 seats then it is to run candidates in all 435 districts. It will also be true that running someone in a district in which, Obama got 48% is more important than running someone in a district in which he got 38%.

6.  Fund all candidates in warm water.

       In addition to getting candidates to run in district we can win. They have to be funded and by that it isn’t that these candidates have to go out and raise the money themselves with the hope that if they succeed, they will  then get help.   We can’t have a raise $500,000 and we will talk attitude, In fact the opposite  must be true While the standard shouldn’t be zero a base threshold of say $50,000 to  $ 100,000 to show the person is some degree of serious seems on mark. We should also think about being willing to substitute a cash amount for a number of in district donors. 1000 , $50 contributions should count equally to 50 $2400 contributions for gauging viability. When the base level support is reached, it is the job of everyone, net-roots, DCCC, DNC to make sure they are funded at the level required to reach name recognition saturation and to run an effective campaign.  Additionally Members of Congress should fund the candidates directly.

With slightly over 75% of Members of Congress participating each candidate could receive  $ 350,000 in direct member funding before leadership pacs or double dipping for primary and general are even considered.

7.  Be wary of cold water.

    By the same token it is important to very wary of cold water.  While there is no-line in the sand meaning that Obama lose does not mean Democrats shouldn’t challenge there.[All though we only hold 12 McCain Districts after the 2010 election] If the district dips below 45% for Obama that is a very dangerous  sign. If it dips below 40% the case to be made for the possible victory for a Democratic would need to be very strong indeed before resources should be allocated. Remember that even with a victory in such a case we are saddled with a member who is going to be very vulnerable and unfortunately in two recent cases [LA 4 and AL 5] members from such districts after very  hard fought battles switched parties merely so that they could survive[although one was subsequently tea-partied to death]  There are also sadder examples like Tonny Sowers in  MO 8 who raised a ton of money and did everything right and still couldn’t break the partisan model of  his district.

8. Be wary of reruns.

         Another of area of concern is when candidates who lose want to run again. This is no always a bad idea as can be seen by Paul Hodes  in 06 or Tim Walberg, Steve Chabot, Andy Harris,Charlie Bass in 2010. However in general these kind of challenges have less success than the district’s partisan make up might otherwise indicate. So while I can think of a view former members who should run again as well as a few candidates, the familiar or even the well-liked nature of these people should not blind us to the very real dangers of incorrect re-nominations.

9. Persuasion is overrated.

     This is another one of the semi-blasphemous things in this memo but when you look deeply at the numbers the ability of campaigns to persuade seems to be decreasing. A few campaigns are successfully able to break out of the partisan tide, but in general there are maybe 15% of voters would be likely to swing from voting for one parties candidate or another in a race in which name recognition saturation is met. No doubt this is the crucial and decisive factor in some races, but remember if 15% are up for grabs the likelihood is that they won’t break 100% one way or another in fact ranges between 60% to 40% or 55% to 45% are more common.  If the Electorate is 300,000  people, which is about average for a congressional race in a Presidential year , 15% is   45,000  and  a 60% win is  9,000  vote margin, and the difference between  losing swing voters 60 to 40 as opposed to  55 to 45 is only  4500 votes. Now this is not an insignificant number of votes. However it is also not automatically decisive that means while persuasion should be a tool in the arsenal, it shouldn’t be the arsenal.

10. Start with  the base and build out.

      This is a lesson which Republicans never and Democrats always forget. In the vast majority of election who votes is more important than how they vote because based on who votes how they are going to vote is somewhat of a forgone conclusion. Voters may not want to believe they can be that easily predicted but in the vast majority of cases they are.  This means that Democratic candidates do not spend  nearly the time require to reward the parties most loyal voters. This is a lesson from the 2008 election that is too often forgotten. Amongst those voters who voted in 2004 between John Kerry and George Bush, Obama only won  50% to 49%, or a of swing 2% to 3% total.  Meanwhile Obama won by nearly 7% because amongst the new electorate Obama won by a huge margin. Obama focused on getting these voters out but frankly his history making existence was incredibly power incentive in and of itself.  Without as much incentive, the effort needs to be doubled.  President Obama as a candidate always had this excitement factor but it was not clear that he would be able to expand the Iowa Caucus electorate since it had never been done on the Democratic side.  But because he did it, he won.  Finding ways to expand the electorate can be as important if not more important than successful persuasion.

11. Remember who the base is.

    Democrats sometimes have a hard time remembering who there base is. Looking to issue silo’s[like Pro-Choice, or Environmental  groups] to replace actual voters. So for those playing at home the Democratic base is made up of the following.

1. Racial Minorities.

In 2006  Non-Whites made up 23% of the Electorate  and gave Democrats 75% percent of the Vote, in 2008 they made up 27% of the Electorate and gave Democrats 81%  and  In 2010 they made up 23% Electorate and gave Democrats 75%.   If the point is not clear this the absolute bedrock of the Democratic Party without which we would cease to function. Democratic Candidates running for any office should begin their campaigns there. If your campaign can’t get the average turnout and the average percentage from this base is incredibly unlikely to win.

2. Religious minorities

White Religious Minorities[Including those who proclaim no religion or an other religion] make up the next  biggest portion of the Electorate preferring Democrats at roughly 14% of the Electorate each year and preferring Democrats  at roughly  a 2/1 cliff leaning slightly  more toward Democrats if you had to guess.

Summary :

That is the sum total of the Democratic base. Combined they range from 37% to 40% of the electorate depending on the year.  The goal for a Democratic candidate is to win those groups 3-1 and then minimize damage with the rest of the electorate. If you can hit 40% of the vote with the rest of the electorate you are likely to win.

12. Partisan performance is two numbers, Obama 08 high/ Kerry 04 low  

       When thinking of where to challenge and also the challenges which lie in front of  Democratic Challengers it is important to look at both numbers. While we obviously need to challenge in any district Obama won. We need to make triple certain that the Kerry district [180 districts now]  come in incredibly strong  something  like 175-5.  [as opposed to the current 167-13] Particularly of note for Progressive is that Kerry district are much more able to sustain

long term  progressive then is newly won territory.

13. Don’t under challenge.

            If the goal is to retake the House and  25 seats  netted is require for that, we need at fewest 50 but more realistically 60 strong challengers to House Republicans.  This includes playing in all Obama won district, and also will probably include some district we hope to turn toward Obama[ NE 2nd wasn’t an Obama district until it was and  also places where our house candidate can over perform the top of the ticket by just enough to win. 60 Challengers, all funded to at least a million dollars is what is going to take to re-take the House.

14. Look for ethical weaknesses but don’t over rely on them.

         One of the best ways to beat a member in territory you don’t really have the right to control is ethical weaknesses. One need only look at the brief but happy career of Joseph Gao to see that ethical weakness can under the right circumstances obliterate party considerations. However once the corrupt incumbent is gone, party seems to have an effect of reverting to form. Almost all of the Corruption Seats from 2006[ FL 16, TX 22, OH, 18, AZ 5  PA 10] have revert to their original party. The exceptions being NC 11 and depending on your definition CA 11. Still 7 of the Democrats 30 pickups were aided if not create by Republican Ethical problems.. But only 2 of those 7 are still in Democratic hands. The lesson, leverage corruption in race where it can help particularly in expanding the field but don’t make it overly important because the seats can  still be harder to win and much harder to hold.

15.  Remember and reinvent field.

         The ultimate goal for any campaign is to get votes, as many votes as possible. Some votes come easily [base Democrats who always vote], some votes come more difficulty[ persuasion and turnout targets] . Regardless campaigns need to constantly be asking themselves, how will this help me get votes.  This means ways to make the ubiquitous phone calls and door knocks which are a crucial part of field but also new and different ways to get to voters. The best way to get more votes is often found not in what would be described as traditional field tactics, but in the more difficult but potentially more rewarding means of getting true neighbor to neighbor, or peer to peer contact. If someone you know tells you about  anything even, a candidate that is better than if someone you don’t know tells you about it or them.  Congressional Candidates should keep this in mind when building field programs and getting votes. Motivating people to speak to their friends needs to be a part of the program.

16.   Being a House Republican shouldn’t be fun.

        This is a lesson that is well learned from the Tea-Party. The more noise you make, even it is nonsensical and irrational, the better. Additionally, House Democrats felt incredibly uncomfortable some of the time in response to Tea Party Activists. An entire house seat was likely lost because a Member of Congress responded improperly to an obnoxious Tea-Party Activist.  It is likely that struggle of it aided in creating at least two retirements which we lost.  Turn around must be fair play. The House Republicans will conspire to do many things that either are or can be spun to be horribly unpopular. They shouldn’t be able to operate in their districts or anywhere without being remind of these things.  It is a shame that our politics has degenerated and now values noise and fury, but silence now  means acquiescence. We need noise and fury and for the job of being a House Republican needs to be less than fun.

17. Use new media to expand who can help your campaign.

       It has it strengths and weakness but in general the more outlets in which your message is going out the better. Of particular import is using Democratic-Social Networking tools like DFA’s.  It is important to get blogosphere buy in. Republicans of late have been better at funding their candidates from a national perspective. Sharron Angle outraised Harry Reid. Christine O’Donnell raised 7.4 million which was far more than Chris Coons  . Scott Brown raised far more than Martha Coakley.  Also, challengers need far more national help because they have a harder time  winning local support, particularly financial . Campaigns need to focus on this money stream as well as the other potential skills that can be gained through the power of new media, you might be able to find a discount web designer, or speech writer, or field people. New Media gives you a chance to encourage more to support your campaign and that is important.

18. Let candidates be themselves.

          This goes against more conventional wisdom but seems important.  There is much drudgery involved in the process of running for Congress and a lot of it is unavoidable but the process of trying to remake people into sound bites can grate on them and unhappy candidates do less well. The benefit you may get from polish decreases the possibility for creative thinking. In the end it simply isn’t worth it. Letting a candidate feel like the campaign is theirs and allowing for new ideas will make everything work better.

19. Run with the President where it is wise, be careful where it is not.

           Democrats in the district that a Democrat has a chance to win really like the President. This means that for Democrats it is important to be seen as viewing the President favorably and that those who vote for The President should consider voting for our challenger as a means of aiding the President. However since most of these district are pretty evenly divided between People voting for the President and then those voting against, the wise course would be to stake out a few in district signature differences which while not actually being overly important to Democrats nor risk costing the President many votes can be enough to get the small percentage of crossover votes needed. One important note is that running with the President in a state he is going to win or is a true tossup it is more important to run with but even in close district in states he will lose the importance of distance matters greatly.  Regardless you have to walk the line well.

20.  If you can’t use any National Democrats, you probably can’t win.

       Some Democrats are more popular than the President in a number of district the most prominent of these being President Clinton. If the prospect of bringing President Clinton into your District to campaign for you seems like a poor choice the odds are good that the district is simply too Republican to sustain a reasonable Democratic Challenge.  You need to be able to use some National Democrats to show the Democratic base it matters.  Each state and district would have a different set of  Democrats to bring in, but if you are gun shy about them in total.  Think deeply about why, and how you can win.

21. Make sure to run with Local Candidates.

Challengers need every vote they can get and almost every campaign good, bad or indifferent succeeds in bring in some new voters to the process. Simply because of the personal friends everyone has. By supporting local candidates you can  gain access to these networks and by helping them you can reach into their bases. Maybe one candidate is a firefighter, the other is a teacher, the other is a member of an ethnic group that represent a small but important number of voters. Either way the work of these campaigns can bring in additional votes and the better they do and the more you can aid them the better chances they have of bringing in the extra votes you might not be able too.

22. Peopleraise while you fundraise.

    The Number of people invested in your campaign with a monetary contribution to your campaign is as important as the amount of money you are able to raise. Getting everyone who wants to help to give just a small amount is valuable.  That small token of money is in fact an investment in your campaign and once someone is invested in something the odds of them doing something else to help increases.   Getting the buy is valuable even the dollar amount doesn’t seem it.

23.  Know Your Vote Goal

     Vote goals are an under utilized tool on campaigns.  Generally they are hidden deep in the campaign and are seen as proprietary and what is worse is that they are woefully weak in terms of  detail. This should not be. Campaigns should know the numbers of votes they need to get in each precinct and be prepared to have a plan to get them, and buy your team into this concept of a specific number of votes and the need to obtain them.  When you set goals, it is easier to meet them.  The vote goal is the most important goal of all, and what you are working for. People care more about what they are doing when they know what the their goals are and the plan to obtain them.

24. The last votes are in ideas you haven’t thought of yet.

       In 2006, Joe Courtney won a House Seat by 83 Votes.  The organizers at the University of Connecticut decided at the last minute to pay for a limo to drive students to the polling place.  That decision made outside of the official campaign probably won that race. It was aided by the support from the Men’s Basketball coach and a visit by Ben Affleck.  The point is that there are extra votes in somewhat unlikely ideas.  Ideas that are unlikely can often well be needed.  This means you need to be thinking of extra ideas and no campaign can nor should yet have the exact solution because each race is different and every circumstances is different. One size does not fit all. The Limo with no previous engagement would have been useless.

25.  Start Now

       We don’t have time to wait, there is plenty to do and the longer candidates are in the race the more chances they have to raise money, build bodies, build name recognition and generally get to equal recognition with an incumbent and as importantly not let the incumbent enjoy uncontested news cycles. The broader goal requires nearly 60 such quality candidates so we can be sure of the seats we need and not be able to hold if we lose some of the 12 McCain won districts.  No time to waste.