Connecticut is (I think) a bipartisan commission state, so I decided to draw a bipartisan/court map really quickly. This is a rough draft I whipped up in 5 minutes in response to a comment in a thread, but it follows 3 principles:
1) Make 4 solid D seats
2) Make 1 winnable seat for the Republicans
3) Split towns as little as possible and follow obvious natural and governmental boundaries.
This is a very rough draft, so please comment!
Statewide:
1. John Larson (D-East Hartford)
Counties: Parts of Hartford
Larson’s district shrinks a bit to just the Hartford Metro, gets more reasonably shaped, and probably becomes even more Dem. Adds New Britain and loses the tail into NW Conn. Guess: D+15.
2. Joe Courtney (D-Vernon)
Counties: New London, Tolland, and Windham; Parts of Hartford and Middlesex
The big change here is that I wanted to use the Connecticut River as a natural boundary, and that lops off some more rural areas East of New Haven in exchange for some areas closer in to Hartford. Probably about the same. Guess: D+7.
3. Rosa DeLauro (D-New Haven)
Counties: Parts of New Haven and Middlesex
Trades out a little bit of the Gold Coast for Meriden and some areas east of New Haven. Guess: D+8.
4. Jim Himes (D-Greenwich)
Counties: Parts of Fairfield
Loses some of its Northeast (which I think is somewhat more conservative) and expands a little east of Bridgeport, but otherwise there’s not much to do here. Guess: D+6.
5. OPEN
Counties: Litchfield; Parts of Fairfield, Hartford, and New Haven.
Loses New Britain and Meriden and adds some more rural pieces in the Northwest and North of the Gold Coast. Mary Glassman and Sam Caliguiri live here. Guess: EVEN.
I got most of the information on CT redistricting here:
http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/in…
Someone else can read it and see if I’m getting this straight:
An eight member panel (4D, 4R) has until Sept. 15 to pass a redistricting plan. If they fail, a ninth member is added to the commission. How this ninth member is selected is probably important to the outcome but I’m not sure how that works. If the nine member committee fails to pass a plan by Nov 39, it goes to the Supreme Court.
Now, would a court-drawn map be preferable to this one? I can’t see dems passing a plan that actually makes CD5 weaker, at least they would want to hold the current PVIs. Is there some other aspect of the redistricting process that gives Dems an advantage due to their legislative majority?
Another thing – it is possible to draw a VRA seat in CT just by stringing a line from Bridgeport to Hartford via New Haven and Waterbury. This seat has a white percentage in the high 30s and, while not “compact” in objective terms, is more compact than most of the VRA seats in existence right now.
So CT may be another state that could be affected by a VRA lawsuit and how Anthony Kennedy decides to interpret Gingles.