For my first diary, I decided to tackle my (adopted) home state. Given that Olver is not going to go quietly, it really seems to be up in the air who gets eliminated. I think there are 4 realistic options:
1. Olver gets pushed in with Neal anyway. Western Mass is where the population loss has been, and this would produce the least-gerrymandered map.
2. Lynch is booted. He’s not popular among the liberal establishment and can be eliminated pretty easily.
3. Tierney is eliminated. He’s probably the weakest incumbent in the delegation, and if it stays the same, I think the 6th is the only district that could flip in 2012 (assuming Tisei runs).
4. Frank retires. The 2010 race, and the prospect of going back into the minority, may convince him that now is the time to hang it up and write his memoir.
I think 2 and 3 are the more likely scenarios, but 1 and 4 are still possible. Notice I did not include Scenario 5: Capuano runs for senate. That’s because the plan will face a lawsuit if they do not draw a Majority-Minority District. I think it is likely to succeed, based on VRA analysis I’ve read here pertaining to other states. Since Capuano’s district is already on the VRA borderline, I think it is going to stay the same regardless. In all my plans I made sure the 8th was below 50% white.
Quick notes for these:
A) Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard are always in Keating’s district. It’s just easier to leave them off the maps for readability.
B) All districts are safe D in all years in my opinion, unless otherwise indicated.
C) I tried to keep any non-eliminated incumbents in districts that are as similar to their current ones as possible.
D) Keating’s district gets the number of the eliminated district, just for convenience (I know MA always renumbers its districts to count up from the West to Cape Cod)
I have individual district maps for all these – I’ll post them if there’s confusion, but there are so many districts here (36) I’d rather not do that.
The coloring scheme should be familiar:
District 1: Blue
District 2: Green
District 3: Purple
District 4: Red
District 5: Yellow
District 6: Teal
District 7: Hot Pink or Orange(Map II)
District 8: Lavender
District 9: Cyan
Map I: Neal vs. Olver
West:
Northeast:
Southeast:
Boston:
I-1. Keating
This district changes quite a bit – it keeps it base on the Cape and Islands but now includes Keating’s actual residence in Sharon. New Bedford is added too to make this more Dem.
I-2. Neal vs. Olver
Compact Western Mass seat. Should be a fair fight between the two.
I-3. McGovern
This district is now Worcester County-based, losing its tail into Fall River. McGovern should hold it fine, but I’d be concerned about him retiring in a bad year.
I-4. Frank
Frank gets a lot of liberal MetroWest areas along with some more conservative ones around Franklin. He also swaps out New Bedford for Fall River. Probably makes it a point or two less Dem, but Frank should be fine.
I-5. Tsongas
Very similar to her current district, but adds Fitchburg and Leominster while losing Haverhill.
I-6. Tierney
Adds Haverhill and Woburn but otherwise doesn’t change much. A potential alternate configuration would be to move Revere and Winthrop to I-6 and give Woburn back to I-7. That’s probably a wash politically.
I-7. Markey
Pretty similar to his current seat with a little more of MetroWest.
I-8. Capuano.
Similar to his current seat with a few territory swaps in Brighton, Hyde Park, and Everett to make sure it’s majority-minority (47% white).
I-9. Lynch.
Takes in conservative parts of Plymouth county as well as the Blue-collar towns of Quincy and Brockton. Excellent fit for Lynch, but could be competitive if he retires at the wrong time.
Map II: Capuano vs. Lynch (in reality, eliminating Lynch)
West:
Southeast:
Northeast:
Boston:
II-1. Olver
Expands east just a tad and gets rid of that silly tail on the 2nd district, which has outlived its usefulness.
II-2. Neal
Same situation as Olver. These 2 districts are more-or-less identical in maps II, III, and IV.
II-3. McGovern
Almost identical to his current district.
II-4. Frank
Moves a bit further out of Boston. Probably about the same politically, or maybe a point or two less D, due to the addition of Brockton canceling out some more conservative suburbs. Frank should still be safe here.
II-5. Tsongas
Similar to her current district, with a bit more of MetroWest added. Probably a point or two more D.
II-6. Tierney
Pulls in closer to Boston, taking the Northeast part of Markey’s district. Probably a point or two more D, but I’d be really worried about Tisei winning this seat as the new territory coincides with his former State Senate District.
II-7. Markey
Loses its northeastern portion and exchanges it for Brookline, Brighton, and West Roxbury. Maybe a point or two more D.
II-8. Capuano vs. Lynch.
Majority-minority district that contains Capuano’s and Lynch’s homes, but that Lynch can not win. If Capuano runs for Senate, I imagine Chang-Diaz could beat Lynch in a primary easily.
II-9. Keating.
Adds Milton, Braintree, and Weymouth (giving Keating more of his Norfolk County base) but otherwise few changes. Probably a point or two more D than it is now.
Map III: Eliminating Tierney
West:
Northeast:
Southeast:
Boston:
III-1 and III-2. Olver and Neal
See map II above.
III-3. McGovern
This one changes a lot. It becomes basically a MetroWest district. If anything that makes it more Democratic, but I could see McGovern having a tough primary fight if somebody from the Framingham area had the gall to challenge him.
III-4. Frank
This district shifts west, taking the tail of MA-3 and giving up its central portion. The population centers stay the same though (Newton, Brookline, New Bedford, and Fall River) so I think Frank should be fine here.
III-5. Tsongas.
This one has big changes, taking in the northern (and more conservative) half of the old 6th. On the plus side, it loses some conservative areas west of Lowell. It’s probably a point or two more Republican, and I could see Tsongas being vulnerable here in a 2010-like year.
III-6. Keating.
Similar to his current district, but adds Wareham and Braintree.
III-7. Markey vs. Tierney
This is designed as Markey’s district, but I don’t think he’s going to like it. It’s about 60% new territory for him and includes Tierney’s home. If Tierney doesn’t retire voluntarily, I don’t see them going for this as it would put Markey at serious risk in the primary. Even if Tierney retires, I think Markey would still complain loudly at having to absorb so much new area. This should be very safe for whichever Dem wins it in 2012, though.
III-8. Capuano.
Majority Minority District. Basically identical to I-8 above.
III-9. Lynch.
Lynch expands to the South, taking in conservative exurbs. Probably a couple points less Democratic, but this is a good fit for Lynch.
Map IV: Frank retires
West:
Northeast:
Southeast:
Boston:
IV-1 and IV-2. Olver and Neal.
See map II above.
IV-3. McGovern
Very similar to his current district, with one big exception, the addition of New Bedford. Probably significantly more Dem as a result.
IV-4. Keating
Gets fatter by adding more of Plymouth Co. and probably gets more Republican. Keating himself is probably safe, but I’d be very worried about him leaving in a bad year.
IV-5. Tsongas
Loses Haverhill and plunges deep into MetroWest. Probably siginificantly more D than before.
IV-6. Tierney
Adds Haverhill. Probably a wash, and I’d still think Tisei could win this seat.
IV-7. Markey
Adds Newton, Brookline, and West Roxbury while losing MetroWest. Probably more Dem than before.
IV-8. Capuano
Basically identical to I-8 above.
IV-9. Lynch
Very similar to his current district, shifted a little south and west, and adding Wellsley and Needham. Lynch won’t like that, but I think the more conservative rest of his district should be enough to hand him easy primary and general victories.
The moral of the story: Each of these have their strong and weak points. If you make a MMD in Boston (which means not tinkering with Capuano) it’s almost impossible to make 9 truly safe Dem seats. You can make 7 safe, 1 safe except in a really bad year, and 1 safe except for a Tisei run, but I think that’s about the best you can do without looking at a VRA suit. And I honestly don’t know what the final map will be most like – it’s so up in the air I don’t even think I can speculate. But the reason I did these 4 maps is to compare the possibilites, and I feel like the final product will look pretty similar to one of these, depending on who retires and who the legislature favors.
PS: Also note that with Maps 3 and 4, you can swap portions Keating’s and Lynch’s districts to give Lynch Plymouth and Quincy and Keating Norwood and Taunton as I did with Map 1, without affecting any other district.
That’s what I should’ve done for Map 4, but I didn’t realize it until after it was posted. So imagine Lynch’s district going East of Keating’s through Quincy, and Keating taking in Needham and Wellsley. That would solve Lynch’s primary and Keating’s general election problems.
