For my first diary, I decided to tackle my (adopted) home state. Given that Olver is not going to go quietly, it really seems to be up in the air who gets eliminated. I think there are 4 realistic options:
1. Olver gets pushed in with Neal anyway. Western Mass is where the population loss has been, and this would produce the least-gerrymandered map.
2. Lynch is booted. He’s not popular among the liberal establishment and can be eliminated pretty easily.
3. Tierney is eliminated. He’s probably the weakest incumbent in the delegation, and if it stays the same, I think the 6th is the only district that could flip in 2012 (assuming Tisei runs).
4. Frank retires. The 2010 race, and the prospect of going back into the minority, may convince him that now is the time to hang it up and write his memoir.
I think 2 and 3 are the more likely scenarios, but 1 and 4 are still possible. Notice I did not include Scenario 5: Capuano runs for senate. That’s because the plan will face a lawsuit if they do not draw a Majority-Minority District. I think it is likely to succeed, based on VRA analysis I’ve read here pertaining to other states. Since Capuano’s district is already on the VRA borderline, I think it is going to stay the same regardless. In all my plans I made sure the 8th was below 50% white.
Quick notes for these:
A) Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard are always in Keating’s district. It’s just easier to leave them off the maps for readability.
B) All districts are safe D in all years in my opinion, unless otherwise indicated.
C) I tried to keep any non-eliminated incumbents in districts that are as similar to their current ones as possible.
D) Keating’s district gets the number of the eliminated district, just for convenience (I know MA always renumbers its districts to count up from the West to Cape Cod)
I have individual district maps for all these – I’ll post them if there’s confusion, but there are so many districts here (36) I’d rather not do that.
The coloring scheme should be familiar:
District 1: Blue
District 2: Green
District 3: Purple
District 4: Red
District 5: Yellow
District 6: Teal
District 7: Hot Pink or Orange(Map II)
District 8: Lavender
District 9: Cyan
Map I: Neal vs. Olver
West:
Northeast:
Southeast:
Boston:
I-1. Keating
This district changes quite a bit – it keeps it base on the Cape and Islands but now includes Keating’s actual residence in Sharon. New Bedford is added too to make this more Dem.
I-2. Neal vs. Olver
Compact Western Mass seat. Should be a fair fight between the two.
I-3. McGovern
This district is now Worcester County-based, losing its tail into Fall River. McGovern should hold it fine, but I’d be concerned about him retiring in a bad year.
I-4. Frank
Frank gets a lot of liberal MetroWest areas along with some more conservative ones around Franklin. He also swaps out New Bedford for Fall River. Probably makes it a point or two less Dem, but Frank should be fine.
I-5. Tsongas
Very similar to her current district, but adds Fitchburg and Leominster while losing Haverhill.
I-6. Tierney
Adds Haverhill and Woburn but otherwise doesn’t change much. A potential alternate configuration would be to move Revere and Winthrop to I-6 and give Woburn back to I-7. That’s probably a wash politically.
I-7. Markey
Pretty similar to his current seat with a little more of MetroWest.
I-8. Capuano.
Similar to his current seat with a few territory swaps in Brighton, Hyde Park, and Everett to make sure it’s majority-minority (47% white).
I-9. Lynch.
Takes in conservative parts of Plymouth county as well as the Blue-collar towns of Quincy and Brockton. Excellent fit for Lynch, but could be competitive if he retires at the wrong time.
Map II: Capuano vs. Lynch (in reality, eliminating Lynch)
West:
Southeast:
Northeast:
Boston:
II-1. Olver
Expands east just a tad and gets rid of that silly tail on the 2nd district, which has outlived its usefulness.
II-2. Neal
Same situation as Olver. These 2 districts are more-or-less identical in maps II, III, and IV.
II-3. McGovern
Almost identical to his current district.
II-4. Frank
Moves a bit further out of Boston. Probably about the same politically, or maybe a point or two less D, due to the addition of Brockton canceling out some more conservative suburbs. Frank should still be safe here.
II-5. Tsongas
Similar to her current district, with a bit more of MetroWest added. Probably a point or two more D.
II-6. Tierney
Pulls in closer to Boston, taking the Northeast part of Markey’s district. Probably a point or two more D, but I’d be really worried about Tisei winning this seat as the new territory coincides with his former State Senate District.
II-7. Markey
Loses its northeastern portion and exchanges it for Brookline, Brighton, and West Roxbury. Maybe a point or two more D.
II-8. Capuano vs. Lynch.
Majority-minority district that contains Capuano’s and Lynch’s homes, but that Lynch can not win. If Capuano runs for Senate, I imagine Chang-Diaz could beat Lynch in a primary easily.
II-9. Keating.
Adds Milton, Braintree, and Weymouth (giving Keating more of his Norfolk County base) but otherwise few changes. Probably a point or two more D than it is now.
Map III: Eliminating Tierney
West:
Northeast:
Southeast:
Boston:
III-1 and III-2. Olver and Neal
See map II above.
III-3. McGovern
This one changes a lot. It becomes basically a MetroWest district. If anything that makes it more Democratic, but I could see McGovern having a tough primary fight if somebody from the Framingham area had the gall to challenge him.
III-4. Frank
This district shifts west, taking the tail of MA-3 and giving up its central portion. The population centers stay the same though (Newton, Brookline, New Bedford, and Fall River) so I think Frank should be fine here.
III-5. Tsongas.
This one has big changes, taking in the northern (and more conservative) half of the old 6th. On the plus side, it loses some conservative areas west of Lowell. It’s probably a point or two more Republican, and I could see Tsongas being vulnerable here in a 2010-like year.
III-6. Keating.
Similar to his current district, but adds Wareham and Braintree.
III-7. Markey vs. Tierney
This is designed as Markey’s district, but I don’t think he’s going to like it. It’s about 60% new territory for him and includes Tierney’s home. If Tierney doesn’t retire voluntarily, I don’t see them going for this as it would put Markey at serious risk in the primary. Even if Tierney retires, I think Markey would still complain loudly at having to absorb so much new area. This should be very safe for whichever Dem wins it in 2012, though.
III-8. Capuano.
Majority Minority District. Basically identical to I-8 above.
III-9. Lynch.
Lynch expands to the South, taking in conservative exurbs. Probably a couple points less Democratic, but this is a good fit for Lynch.
Map IV: Frank retires
West:
Northeast:
Southeast:
Boston:
IV-1 and IV-2. Olver and Neal.
See map II above.
IV-3. McGovern
Very similar to his current district, with one big exception, the addition of New Bedford. Probably significantly more Dem as a result.
IV-4. Keating
Gets fatter by adding more of Plymouth Co. and probably gets more Republican. Keating himself is probably safe, but I’d be very worried about him leaving in a bad year.
IV-5. Tsongas
Loses Haverhill and plunges deep into MetroWest. Probably siginificantly more D than before.
IV-6. Tierney
Adds Haverhill. Probably a wash, and I’d still think Tisei could win this seat.
IV-7. Markey
Adds Newton, Brookline, and West Roxbury while losing MetroWest. Probably more Dem than before.
IV-8. Capuano
Basically identical to I-8 above.
IV-9. Lynch
Very similar to his current district, shifted a little south and west, and adding Wellsley and Needham. Lynch won’t like that, but I think the more conservative rest of his district should be enough to hand him easy primary and general victories.
The moral of the story: Each of these have their strong and weak points. If you make a MMD in Boston (which means not tinkering with Capuano) it’s almost impossible to make 9 truly safe Dem seats. You can make 7 safe, 1 safe except in a really bad year, and 1 safe except for a Tisei run, but I think that’s about the best you can do without looking at a VRA suit. And I honestly don’t know what the final map will be most like – it’s so up in the air I don’t even think I can speculate. But the reason I did these 4 maps is to compare the possibilites, and I feel like the final product will look pretty similar to one of these, depending on who retires and who the legislature favors.
PS: Also note that with Maps 3 and 4, you can swap portions Keating’s and Lynch’s districts to give Lynch Plymouth and Quincy and Keating Norwood and Taunton as I did with Map 1, without affecting any other district.
That’s what I should’ve done for Map 4, but I didn’t realize it until after it was posted. So imagine Lynch’s district going East of Keating’s through Quincy, and Keating taking in Needham and Wellsley. That would solve Lynch’s primary and Keating’s general election problems.
The Supreme Court stated quite clearly in Bartlett v Strickland (2009) that a majority-minority district wherein the minority population falls below 50% is no longer ‘protected’ by the VRA. Moreover, the Supreme Court stated just as clearly in LULAC v Perry (2006) that the VRA does not require the creation of ‘influence’ or ‘coalition’ districts (as is MA-08). Finally, the Supreme Court ruled quite clearly in Georgia v Ashcroft (2003) that a state legislature has the option whether to draw a smaller number of ‘safe’ minority-majority seats or a greater number of minority ‘influence’ seats.
In short, there is no reason that I can see to assume that a VRA lawsuit would be likely to succeed if Massachusetts fails to draw a minority-majority district for that mere fact alone.
McGovern (53 in 2012) will never retire, though; he’ll be there when he’s 80.
What figures are they using on this app? I know they are not from the current census as local figures hae not been released. Are they from earlier year estimates? If so what years are they from?
possibly win in any of the Cape Cod/Quincy districts? Jeff Perry came close… even with all of the scandal surrounding him.
Just as a general observation, it’s really amazing how far east MA-01 pushes to account for population loss if you don’t draw it as an Olver-Neal catfight by lumping in Springfield. I’ve tried several maps with the same result, though I always pushed a little farther into the 465 outer loop just because I could, and gave Northampton to Neal just to keep him on his toes (as I believe the current MA-02 does as well).
I would love to see MA-09 redrawn into something like your “eliminate Lynch” plan. Chang-Diaz would not only be a fantastic Rep, she’d be a 200% improvement over Lynch. Though I get the feeling that certain working-class whites in Southie (Lynch’s base) would get pretty bitter over that part of your map. Unless you messed with the lines a bit to split parts of Southie into Keating’s district. Not sure about your MA-05 on that map, though – I don’t think Tsongas would play too well in the near burbs relative to the territory she represents now.
The “eliminate Tierney” map just doesn’t work, for the reasons you described. The leg just isn’t going to put Markey, the most powerful member of the delegation and a guy not known for his campaign skills, into a contested primary. With minimal effort you could draw it into a Tierney vs. Tsongas contest that Tierney could probably win, but splitting up the north shore as a community of interest probably wouldn’t fly regardless.
It really wouldn’t hurt Markey if you gave Waltham to Tsongas, especially on the “Frank retires” map, and it would make CD5 a LOT more Democratic.
MA other then its hard to eliminate corner seats. Tierney-Oliver-Keating you don’t so much eliminate a corner as nearby seats into it. With 5 & 7 being the only seats next to CD6 its hard to imagine Tierney had getting a seat with at least 1/2 of his area. Of you could take CD8 through CD7 into Lynn but that takes some of CD7 away from Markey.
Markey is senior guy in MA and has a sweet committee spot. I can’t imagine him being placed in a 50-50 race with anyone. Ditto with Frank. Tsongas is only MA female so I think she is safe. Neal is creeping up there on Ways & Means so I can’t see a powerful pol like him getting the axe. Is McGovern’s second spot on Rules enough of big deal to get him a pass? Iffy in my opinion.
So once you eliminate the corners and the powerful plus the female that leaves CD3-CD8-CD9.
So you got two Irish guys and an Italian guy with seats in jeopardy in MA.
I say its time for Mr. C. to run for the US senate because he seat is on the chopping block.
If John Tierney is the weakest member of the delegation (makes sense, given the district and has wife heading to jail) wouldn’t the more obvious approach be to shore him up? Your map and a lot of the comments here get into the considerable difficulties of getting rid of this corner seat. So would it be possible to strengthen Tierney instead? I realize that’s note the point of this post. But if one district has to go, and it’s hard for it to be this one, could this one be adjusted in ways that’d help save this seat for the Democrats?
A primary between Niki Tsongas, who barely scraped into Congress, and John Tierney, with his wife’s legal problems, would be depressing to watch.
Tsongas’s district is colored yellow, and your map still clearly has Lawrence colored yellow also…meaning it wasn’t moved out her district.
What that map does do is split the City of Methuen between two CDs ,and you do the same with the Town of Andover. This immediately sinks that map. The Legislative delegation in Boston will not allow these communities to be rendered irrelevant.
*What’s the deal with everyone being worried about Tisei?? Tisei would not make it out of a primary, period. Hudak would run again and beat Tisea easily. I’d be more worried about Tarr.
Just the thoughts of a life-long resident of greater Lawrence.
I don’t see the “consolidated West” scenario happening. Western Mass (defined here as the 413 area code) has about 100K people more than a single CD; It’d be hard to draw a Olver vs. Neal seat that doesn’t stick some of the most conservative voting towns in the state with someone who won’t want them. (What you drew there, giving the Worcester-based seat most of Franklin County is about the best option.)
What to do about Keating’s district? The best thing to do is to figure out a way to get Randolph in there. My version of the new MA-09 adds Randolph, Braintree, and Holbrook and takes out Abingdon and Hanson. Braintree and Holbrook aren’t great additions on paper, as Brown and Baker both won them, but they’re way more likely to be familiar with Bill Keating, who’s been their DA for a while, than with any likely Republican opponent. Randolph, which is only about 60% non-Hispanic white, was also in Keating’s DA turf, and it’s a terrific add for any Democrat; Patrick beat Baker there 2-1.
Regarding what to do about the North Shore…if Tierney goes, you could eliminate that district, give a lot of his territory to Markey and I doubt he’d draw a significant primary challenge. Or, since this district (the 6th as it stands now) needs to grow more than most if it’s kept, you could push it into Revere, Winthrop, and Boston depending on the outcome of the need to keep a min-maj district.
there is more then one way to skin a cat. You can have a minority/majority seat with CD8’s congressman.
Give Cambridge to CD7–Bring CD6 down to Somerville (through eastern edge of CD7)
Then CD4 (Barney Frank) keeps Brookline & Newton plus a few other surburban towns. Then Frank takes in our of the minority areas of North Boston. The white parts of Boston in CD8 goes to CD9.
You can carve up Capuano’s seat quite easily and preserve a minority majority seat. Frank is not have any problem holding just as Congressman C had no problem holding it.