SSP Daily Digest: 1/20

• CA-Sen: Does Meg Whitman seriously not have anything better to do with her money? Rumors are bubbling up that she’s actually considering a return to politics… which, if it’s going to be in 2012, would mean a run against Dianne Feinstein (which, of course, would mean a run against the state’s most popular politician in a presidential year, instead of an open seat run in a down year for Dems).

• MT-Sen: Republican businessman (and one-time LG candidate) Steve Daines did some serious fundraising in the last few months since announcing his candidacy, hauling in $225K since his announcement, with the majority of that money coming from in-state. The main target he’s probably trying to scare with that money isn’t Jon Tester (who has about $500K CoH), but Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg, who’s usually the GOPer most associated with this race but has sounded noncommittal so far; I’m sure Daines would like to see Rehberg stay out of the Senate primary. Rehberg has $594K. One other Montana Senate item, although it hopefully won’t be an issue any time soon: the Montana legislature is considering whether, in the event of a Senate vacancy, to switch over from gubernatorial appointment to a fast special election instead.

• OH-Sen: Quinnipiac has a poll today of the Ohio Senate race, but, like their Pennsylvania poll last month, the lack of an obvious Republican opponent means the matchup is just against Generic R. Sherrod Brown does pretty well against G.R., especially considering that actual named candidates tend not to do as well as generics at least at this stage in the game; Brown leads 45-33, and has an approval of 45/25. This is definitely a race where we shouldn’t start celebrating short of the end zone, though, considering that PPP recently found Brown in much more of a pickle, and even Qpac points out he’s far from the 50% mark and in “decent but not overwhelming” shape. The Cleveland Plain Dealer’s writeup of the poll spends a lot of ink talking up Rep. Steve LaTourette as a possible GOP candidate; while he’d bring some geographic strengths to the race that other GOPers might not, there hasn’t been any indication so far that he’s interested.

• RI-Sen, RI-Gov: Sheldon Whitehouse looks like he’s dodged at least one credible candidate in 2012; John Robitaille, who came close in the 2010 gubernatorial race (although that was only because of the center-left vote split between Lincoln Chafee and Frank Caprio) and has expressed interest in running for something else, now seems focused on a retry in the 2014 gubernatorial race. Partly, he admits, that’s because running statewide as a Republican in Rhode Island in a presidential year would be a kamikaze mission.

• WV-Gov: SoS Natalie Tennant has gotten endless mentions as a likely gubernatorial candidate, but with the clock ticking to the now-only-nine-months-away special election, she’s made her candidacy official as of yesterday.

• FL-25: OK, here’s a trivia question for you all (which I genuinely don’t know the answer to)… which House freshman holds the record for the shortest partial term, before having to resign in shame? (I’m wondering if Eric Massa actually holds the record, but I’d bet there’s some historical example of someone accomplishing it in less than one year.) The reason I ask is that things seem to be moving into a new phase in the investigation into David Rivera, and whether piles of money paid from a dog track that he helped, to his mother’s marketing company, found their way into his pockets. The Miami-Dade County’s state’s attorney, Katherine Fernandez Rundle, just turned the case over to the Florida Dept. of Law Enforcement. Although that sounds ominous, some observers are seeing the move as a downgrade, though, as the FDLE may not devote the same level of resources to it; Rundle has been viewed as a possible Dem challenger in this district, and may be punting the case to avoid it becoming a liability for her later.

• MI-15: Rep. John Dingell (84 years old) says he’ll be back for an unprecedented 30th term in the House, running again in 2012. One important detail, though: whatever district he’s running in, it won’t be the 15th next time, as Michigan is about to lose a seat. Dingell has survived multiple bad redistrictings over the decades, including beating fellow Democratic Rep. Lynn Rivers in a 2002 primary mashup. (Thanks to Greg Giroux, we know now that Dingell will pass Robert Byrd in all-time legislative service in June of 2013.)

• Mayors: Two mayoral races are in the news today, although both aren’t up for grabs until 2012. Two-term incumbent Buddy Dyer (who used to be the Democratic leader in the Florida state Senate) says he’s going to run for another term as mayor of Orlando. He also mentioned some vague gubernatorial aspirations. Also, Portland, Oregon will elect a new mayor in ’12; all the action will be in the Democratic primary, where it’s not certain that Sam Adams (damaged by a sex scandal several years ago) will run for a second term. One interesting possibility mentioned: former Senate candidate Steve Novick, who gained a lot of netroots attention during his ’08 Dem primary run, is seriously considering a run.

• Votes: As you’re probably already aware, the Dems held the defections down to three on yesterday’s HCR repeal vote. It was the three likeliest suspects, given the combination of their dark-red districts and previous statements on the matter: OK-02’s Dan Boren, NC-07’s Mike McIntyre, and AR-04’s Mike Ross. UT-02’s Jim Matheson has the reddest district of any “no” vote, but he’s a member of leadership and may be sanguine about getting a better district out of redistricting next year (or just figuring that the worst is past).

• Redistricting: Arizona legislative Republicans sort of succeeded with their quest to get three members of the state redistricting panel kicked off (on the grounds that they were serving in other political offices); however, it was a partial success because only two of the three challenged members got kicked off by the state supreme court and the one they were really targeting the most didn’t get kicked off. Also, if you’re in Virginia and you’re a college student, the state is having a redistricting contest. No word on whether you absolutely have to be part of a team or can do it individually, but the winners get a cash prize and get to present the design for new congressional and legislative maps to the Governor’s entirely-nonbinding advisory panel. (Actually, it looks like it’s too late to start a team if your college doesn’t already have one, but your college probably already has a team which you might be able to join. See here for the details.)

158 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 1/20”

  1. Mayor Adams isn’t terribly popular, and Novick is just awesome.

    Good to see Secy. Tennant confirmed as a candidate for governor of West Virginia, although I may just like her because she shares the same last name as Scottish actor and former “Doctor Who” star David Tennant.

    And man, Rep. Rivera is bad news. Bet FL-25 residents are collectively kicking themselves for electing him.

  2. PPPolling basically called the Q-poll bullshit on twitter. They pointed out that this time in the ’10 cycle Q-poll had Strickland leading Kasich by 30pts whereas PPolling has his only +6.

    Pollster cat fight anyone?

  5. I didn’t look up his specific dates, but he definitely resigned during his first and only term. Bill Janklow (SC-01) too, but I think he was in longer than Ballance.  

  6. The Congressman who served the shortest term ever was Rep. Effingham Lawrence who served as a Representative from the state of Louisiana for one day: March 3, 1875. Lawrence had supposedly lost the election to Jacob Hale Sypher, but Lawrence continued to contest the election, even after Rep. Sypher had been seated. Astonishingly, the decision was made that Lawrence had in fact been the rightful winner of the previous election, and on March 3, 1875–the last day of the congressional term–Lawrence was sworn in as Congressman. Funny enough, after getting his one day as Congressman, he decided that was enough, chose not to run for re-election, and went back to farming.

    http://answers.yahoo.com/quest…

  7. http://www.rollcall.com/news/-…

    You kind of have to read between the lines here, but with Tim Kaine giving up “day-to-day” operations of the DNC to the new “executive director” it tells me that Kaine will have a lot more free time on his hands. He has said that Webb will be running for reelection (although that may just be a smokescreen) and simultaneously took himself out of consideration of the senate race. Methinks that Kaine may be Obama’s VP nominee in 2012, as Biden is getting up there in age, and as gaffe prone.

  9. for a bill to become law, does it have to pass both houses of Congress in the same legislative session?  Or can the senate of the 113th congress pass a bill from the 112th congress into law?  I ask this because what if the house goes Democratic in the 113th congress but we lose the senate?  Could the senate pass some kind of health care repeal through reconciliation that the house passed in a previous congress?  Not that that’s at all likely…

  13. On one hand I’m surprised and on the other I’m not.  I think this could possibly be even tougher for him than 2010 (which, is only tough by his districts standards having sent him back by a 17% margin).  If it wasn’t clear before, I think Dingell is basically saying that he wants to be a congressman until he passes on.

    The GOP is going to have a hard time dumping him, which makes me think that his will not be a merged district, rather a more generously drawn one for them.  But, they have to be careful, because they will almost certainly have to make the 11th and 7th less Republican just because of how the population’s laid.

    BTW, from the Detroit News:

    “It’s the greatest job in the world,” Dingell, D-Dearborn, said today in acknowledging he’s fund-raising for a 2012 re-election. “I can help people and … make things better, and I represent some of the finest people on earth. The people in southeast Michigan are nothing short of wonderful.

    …

    Dingell, who began his career on Capitol Hill at age 29 when he filled the seat of his father, faced a tougher than usual campaign in 2010 against Rob Steele, a tea party favored Republican. In the end, Dingell pulled out with a 17-point lead.

    “We had a very, very nasty campaign against us in which I got death threats, my wife got death threats,” Dingell said. “I don’t mind them for me – I’ve had them for years. … But what does bother me is when they threaten my wife.”

    In referencing the Tucson, Ariz., shootings that wounded Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, Dingell said rhetoric has created “a hideous unproductive climate which I think is very dangerous.”

    …

  14. When a certain county requires Section 5 preclearance by the DOJ, what exactly does that mean? Does it mean that any district that includes part of that county needs to be precleared? Doesn’t that basically have the effect of requiring preclearance for the entire state, b/c if the DOJ refuses to clear those counties than the whole state’s map either has to be changed or go through a court battle? A similar question applies for the counties in VA which have been “bailed out” from Section 5 requirements.

  15. This might sound a bit weird, but I feel like the banter on special elections has been low so far this year. Are there any? There weren’t any major appointments that freed up some seats?

  17. Since the article mentioned the “Dem primary” for Portland Mayor:

    Elections for PDX mayor and city commissioners are non-partisan.  Top two to the general if nobody gets a majority and all that.

    It’ll still be a mostly-Dem affair, though.

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