My last diary attempted to draw an effective 8-0 map of Maryland. This ran into problems, because my idea of drawing MD-01 across the Chesapeake from the Eastern Shore to St. Mary’s county left Steny Hoyer without a clear district to run in. In light of that, I have played around some more with the map of Maryland, and this is the best way I have come up with to guarantee Hoyer a district while drawing 8 democratic districts:
In the west the pattern is similar to my last plan. Chris Van Hollen’s MD-08 takes in the panhandle and becomes 61%O/38%M. MD-06 now stretches down into Montgomery County and is now 60%O/38%M. MD-05 is a district drawn for Steny Hoyer. It’s basically his ideal district, composing Southern Maryland, Eastern PG Co, and part of Anne Arundel County. It is 61%O/38%M, and should be safe for Hoyer. MD-04 stretches out of PG Co to take up the part Anne Arundel that isn’t in MD-05 (except for two precincts that are in the 2nd). It is just barely majority-black (51%B/38%W), but safely democratic at 73%O/25%M. The 1st district composes Frank Kratovil’s base in the Eastern Shore, Aberdeen Proving Ground in Harford Co, some parts of SE Baltimore county, and some heavily Democratic areas in Baltimore city. The district as a whole is 50%O/49%M. That is much more democratic than the previous district, but still Republican leaning on a national level. I believe, however, that this would be even better for Kratovil than the district I drew for him in my last diary. Most of the voters in this district’s section of Baltimore county are conservative Reagan Democrats who vote Republican on a national level but still elect conservative Democrats at a local level. These voters should be generally friendly to a conservative Democrat like Kratovil. In addition, these conservative Democrats would help make act as a buffer against an unelectable liberal democrat winning the primary. Between them, the Democrats in Baltimore city, and the Eastern Shore voters who have typically been Kratovil’s base, I think Kratovil should not have trouble winning this district. The 7th stretches up along the 95-or along I-95, as some east coast people say (see the old diary for those who don’t get the reference). It takes in many conservative areas, but is still 51%B/43%W and 68%O/31%M. The 3rd composes most of the close-in suburbs of Baltimore and is even safer D than before (63%O/35%M). The 2nd takes in the northern part of Baltimore county, some rural areas, much of Howard county, and some DC suburbs in PG and MontCo. The partisanship is the same as it is now, 59%D/39%R.
The big problem with this district is not political but regional. In this map, the PG+Montgomery areas of the 2nd district composed around 300K of the district’s 700k people. The areas outside of PG, Montgomery, and Howard counties only total 200K of the district’s population. This means that a majority of the Democratic primary in that district would probably be DC area voters instead of Baltimore area voters, because the areas in PG and Montgomery are much more Democratic than the other areas and because turnout rates are higher in Democratic primaries in PG Co and Mont Co as the Democratic primaries there are effectively the general election. I don’t know whether or not Ruppersburger would face a primary challenge (he could move to Columbia, which would put him in the center of the district and would probably be a good idea anyway given that these districts are going to have to be drawn somewhat differently from the above map due to population shifts to that area), but I know that the Baltimore area state legislators would not be happy with losing the influence of one congressman, especially since Andy Harris who lives in the Baltimore area would be gone as well. With that in mind, I drew another map of the state that preserves Baltimore’s influence in Congress, however with less clean lines overall.
This map draws MD-03 down into PG county a little and gives MD-02 some majority-black areas of Baltimore county. This has the effect of making both districts a little closer to each other in partisanship (MD-02 is 61%O/37%M and MD-03 is 62%O/36%M), and it allows the Baltimore area to dominate both districts. None of the other districts are changed. This map has many advantages, but it definitely looks more gerrymandered than the first one.
or runs in the first. I don’t think Hoyer would be so excited about his district either. I can guarantee that this won’t be the plan.
As for the highway discussion, I have never once in my life hear anyone ever refer to I-95 as “the 95.” Ever. And I am from Philly.
no incumbent likes changes in his district like this even if politically there is no difference.
A politican is used to his own turf.
I think this map does what it sets out to do. Whether incumbents and local legislators like it is another question.
I am also clueless on VRA issues with this map as several seats are clearly reduced in minority%. Montgomery county is now 49% white and Van H’s seat was only 45% white as I figured. Montgomery county’s minorities are neatly divided out, ofr instance, in this map.
Your MD-06, MD-08 and MD-02 are very close to the district what I draw for Maryland finding the limits time ago. I tink it is the right way for solve the new map.
Your MD-03 and MD-04 are also so close in the philosophy. Like you, I keep the black majorities in the MD-04 and the MD-07 narrowly over the 50%.
If you are curious you can see the map finding the limits in my diary. This is your diary, and it is the right place for talk about your map.
This is a little better, but I still have a hard time picturing the map looking this either.
Going from west to east…this is probably what the Western Maryland + Montgomery districts would look like if they were go gunning for 8-0.
I think the 2nd would be the big stumbling block. While it does contain where Dutch Ruppersburger happens to live, it’s contains very few people in Baltimore County outside of Cockeysville (that far northern part of the county is sparsely populated and pretty strongly GOP) and is almost entirely new territory for him, including a bunch of DC burbs where no one has a clue who he is. (Harris wouldn’t win in a general election here, so that’s not the issue.) I think you could sell the idea of DC suburban constituents to Sarbanes, who I think has higher aspirations, easier than you could for Dutch.
I think Sarbanes would generally like this district, as it’s a lot like his current one minus the Anne Arundel portion.
Edwards wouldn’t be thrilled either, as this adds a whole bunch of conservative Baltimore suburbanites, a market she’s not familiar with and one that’s not inclined to like her. I don’t think she’d be in any real danger as there’s more than enough Prince George’s to counteract the northern Anne Arundel suburbs, plus there are a fair number of blacks and other Democrats around Ft. Meade. She got elected in the first place with a lot of help from MoCo white liberals and they’re gone.
Cummings won’t be too pleased either, although he would probably understand that any 8-0 plan necessarily makes his district less blue, and doesn’t (really) have to introduce himself to a whole new media market. You’ve fixed some of the “East Side problem” I mentioned in your previous attempt, but it’s still there to an extent.
Hoyer..well, I think this is a decent district for him. I know he likes having northern PG (and NASA Greenbelt) in his district, but it has to shrink and the only place it can really shrink is in the north. The only really new territory is Annapolis and its environs.
As for the 1st….it looks, in isolation, pretty good. Dems do reasonably well in that part of Harford County, and while the Obama/McCain numbers look bad on the Baltimore County East Side, a Democrat that can get swing voters on the Shore has a decent chance of doing well in those areas too. Because this is starting to get long, I’ll explain in another response why I don’t think this is going to be the approach they take.
There are certainly reasons why it would make sense to send MD-01 into Baltimore City in search of Democrats to balance out the GOP-leaning Eastern Shore.
Baltimore is a good source of Democratic votes.
The way the district looks now, the candidates advertise on Baltimore TV stations to reach viewers in Baltimore, Harford, and Anne Arundel counties. Anyone who watched TV during the ’08 and ’10 election cycles in Baltimore has heard the names Andy Harris and Frank Kratovil.
But I don’t think that’s ultimately what’s going to happen.
There are three “Baltimore” congressional districts (2nd, 3rd, 7th) now represented by people from in/around Baltimore. Baltimore City lost population, and Baltimore County didn’t grow any faster than the state as a whole; all three of those districts have to grow, leaving less room to put parts of a new district.
The only path that the 1st can take into Baltimore without adding a whole bunch of Harris-friendly Republican voters it can’t afford involves going along the shore of the Bay through Harford County (along I-95/US-40) and southeastern Baltimore County…which happens to make up a big chunk of the current MD-02. Because MD-07 has to grow by quite a bit and keep a black majority, that really limits how much of the city that the MD-02 and MD-03 can have, and either you’re giving too many very red precincts along US-1 NE of Baltimore to MD-02, or one of them is going to end up with a bunch of Washington suburbs.
The other option is to send MD-01 through Annapolis (it’s not in the City of Annapolis now, but does include areas by the Bay Bridge often sometime referred to as “Annapolis”) and Anne Arundel County northern or central Prince George’s County.