8-0 Maryland, Re-revisited

This is the third of my diaries on the state of Maryland. What I have found is that there are many, many ways to draw the state of Maryland with eight Democratic seats. There are a couple things that I think any map of Maryland must do, however, in order to have a practical chance of passing:

*Keep the Eastern Shore intact in one district, to avoid upsetting the Shore legislators

*Give all Democratic incumbents a district that they would be okay with. None should have to move to represent a new district.

*Make sure that the district drawn for Frank Kratovil is one where he can win the primary. The last thing we want is to put in too much of Prince George County or Baltimore so that a liberal from those areas who cannot win the general makes it out of the primary.

*And of course, keep all districts Democratic, except for the district where Kratovil runs which should be around PVI EVEN so that he wins it.

Here are some possibilities I have come up with to accomplish those goals.

Option 1

The 8th and 6th show the familiar pattern; 8th taking the panhandle, 6th stretching into Montgomery. The 8th is 61/37 Obama and the 6th is 59/39 Obama. The 4th stretches up all the way to Carroll county now to pack in Republicans. This is terribly ugly, but the district is still 31%W/53%B/11%H and 76/23 Obama. The Carroll and western Howard county parts of the district are very white and Republican, but they do not have enough population to really make Edwards uncomfortable. Steny Hoyer’s 5th district located in eastern PG county, Anne Arundel co, and South Maryland is 60/39 Obama. The 7th district takes in some Republican areas in Anne Arundel county, making it 51%B/42%W and 68/31 Obama. The 3rd district stretches from the Baltimore county suburbs where Sarbanes lives through Howard County down to some of the most white areas of Northern PG county that were in the old 5th. It is even more Democratic than before, 62/36 Obama. The population base of this district is now in Howard county. This should be fine for Sarbanes as most of these areas are used to being represented by Baltimore representatives, but it does show that it would probably be a good idea for Sarbanes to move to Howard county in the long run, especially if he sees a statewide run in the future. This is even more true with the rapid growth in Howard’s population, as indicated by the last census. The 2nd district balances out some conservative areas in Baltimore and Harford counties with some white liberal areas in Baltimore city. It is 58/39 Obama, which represents a shift of <1% from before. Given that Ruppersberger won with 64% in 2010, he should be fine here, especially given that this district contains a lot of conservative Democrats who vote Republican nationally but Democratic locally so it is more Democratic than the Obama numbers suggest. The 1st district, drawn for Frank Kratovil, takes in the Democratic areas of Harford county and some majority-black, heavily Democratic areas in Baltimore County. It is 52/46 Obama, which I believe Kratovil should definitely win.

Option 2







This map makes extensive [ab]use of trans-Chesapeake water contiguity, giving the 1st some Democratic precincts up and down the Chesapeake, including drawing it straight into the city of Baltimore with no land connection. In this plan, the 1st is 52/46 Obama. The one potential advantage to this is that because the Democratic primary vote is split up between different areas instead of being concentrated in a single area, no liberal Democrat with a base in one area could upset Kratovil in the Democratic primary. The 2nd is 58/40 Obama, which again is a one point shift to the GOP from the current district but not enough to affect Ruppersberger given the landslide margins he has won by (and probably not enough to make it much more competitive in an open-seat election, either). The 3rd has the same partisanship it currently does, 60/39 Obama. It is much more of a Baltimore-area district than my first map, with only a tiny part of Montgomery and none of PG county in the district. The 7th is 51%B/43%W and 65/34 Obama, which is incredibly Republican for a majority-black district in Maryland. Steny Hoyer should be happy with this map, as it makes his district 69/30 Obama. Donna Edwards gets some Republican areas of Anne Arundel packed into her district, but it is still 72/26 Obama and 33W/50B/12H. The 6th and 8th are both 60/38 Obama.

Option 3







This is very similar to the second map, but it eliminates some of the ugliest uses of water contiguity in South Maryland by adding one some Democratic precincts in Anne Arundel and Baltimore city to the 1st. The 1st is now 53/45 Obama and the 7th is now 64/34 Obama, but all the other districts are the same. This is definitely my favorite of the three.

I’m interested to hear any potential problems that you think these maps have. I still strongly believe that it is possible to draw an 8-0 map of Maryland that all incumbents are okay with, even if it requires some very creative drawing like this.