Well, Missouri was one of the Big Losers once the 2010 Census numbers came in. It’s sloughing a congressional district, which probably means two or more congresspeople get drawn together.
Let’s do this.
The map, if you’re familiar with my previous proposals for redistricting Missouri, isn’t going to look scads different from maps I’ve drawn before. I had to draw this map from scratch in order to use the 2010 Census data – hence the (Updated!). Sorry about the confusion there. This map is roughly 2-5-1, with the swing district probably favoring the Republican by a smidgen.
MO-01 (blue)
The C.W. is that Rep. Lacy Clay, the Democrat, will have to take all of St. Louis City to maintain his VRA seat. This is not actually true. This district, as drawn, is actually 48.7% black, 43.4% white – and it’s hard to do better, as South City isn’t much less white than north St. Charles County (which actually does have some pockets of black-majority precincts for Clay to collect). Now, granted, any part of St. Louis City is probably more Democratic than just about anywhere in St. Charles County, but if 90% of blacks vote for the Democrat, it’s pretty damn hard to see this district being competitive for Team Red. Safe Democratic.
MO-02 (green)
As I said, Republican Rep. Todd Akin is talking up a prospective Senate bid, and it sounds like a deal may be in the works for former ambassador to Luxembourg and defeated candidate for Republican National Committee chair Ann Wagner to succeed him. This district takes in a large share of the Greater St. Louis exurbs and white-collar suburbs, though I believe it retains Akin’s home in Town and Country. Akin or Wagner or not, this district isn’t terribly likely to go blue; it occupies some of the most Republican parts of the state. Safe Republican.
MO-03 (purple)
I did all I could for Democratic Rep. Russ Carnahan, one of the scions of the powerful Carnahan political dynasty. I gave him the southern parts of St. Louis City. I tried to limit the damage in terms of the parts of modern-day MO-02 he soaked up. I kept the Republican territory snaking down the Mississippi River to Cape Girardeau to as plausible a minimum as I thought Missouri Democrats and Gov. Nixon might be able to get away with demanding, handing him Democratic-leaning Jefferson County to help balance things out. But I still would give Rep. Jo Ann Emerson, the Republican congresswoman drawn together with Carnahan, the slight edge here. Tossup/Tilt Republican.
MO-04 (red)
This district loses a lot of the sprawl into central Missouri in favor of scooping around urban Kansas City, picking up a portion of the northern environs currently contained in MO-06. Rep. Vicki Hartzler, the Republican representing this district, should be completely fine here; Republicans will want to protect her, as she just took over this seat last year, by cutting out some of Ike Skelton’s old stomping grounds around Jefferson City. The parts of Greater Kansas City Hartzler picks up should be red enough, too. Safe Republican.
MO-05 (yellow)
Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, the black Democrat representing this white-majority district, sees his turf consolidate around the more urban, likely-Democratic precincts of Kansas City. Democrats in the legislature will take pains to shore him up after his uncomfortably close reelection last year. Safe Democratic.
MO-06 (slate blue)
Republican Rep. Sam Graves gets pretty much all of “Little Dixie” in northeastern Missouri from modern-day MO-09. While Graves has been viewed in past cycles as potentially vulnerable, Republicans should be happy with the tweaks to his district, despite the addition of Jefferson City and Columbia; Little Dixie has a more Republican PVI than some of the swingy Kansas City suburbs picked up by Cleaver and Hartzler. Safe Republican.
MO-07 (magenta)
This district has changed very little. Republican Rep. Billy Long takes a bit of territory off Hartzler’s hands, but otherwise, it’s the same district. Safe Republican.
MO-08 (orange)
This district has changed very little except to exchange Emerson’s Cape Girardeau County with parts of central Missouri, including Republican Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer’s home in Miller County. Safe Republican.
Now, if Emerson pushes back against the idea of being thrown into the octagon with Carnahan next year, I drew this map with a scenario in mind that has been floated recently: Red. Todd Akin, the Republican representative from MO-02, vacating his seat to run for Congress.
This map gives Luetkemeyer most of Akin’s turf, rather than letting him take over Emerson’s district from his convenient central location. It’s still a 2-5-1 map.
MO-01 (blue)
Not much different than in the other map, including racial breakdown (43.5% white, 48.6% black). Safe Democratic.
MO-02 (green)
This district connects Miller County, where Luetkemeyer resides, with the Greater St. Louis suburbs and exurbs currently represented by Akin. This should be blood-red Republican territory. Wagner might run against Luetkemeyer, but I don’t think the Republicans would draw this map if they wanted that to happen, unless Luetkemeyer decides to retire for some reason. Either way, it doesn’t really matter in terms of partisan breakdown. Safe Republican.
MO-03 (purple)
There are two real beneficiaries of this map as opposed to the previous one. Carnahan is one of them. This district should be very close to EVEN PVI, and his incumbency as well as his political connections should be enough to consider him a slight favorite. Tossup/Tilt Democratic.
MO-08 (orange)
Skipping ahead to Emerson’s district, as the other districts haven’t changed from the previous map: she is, of course, the other beneficiary of this alternate proposal, because she’s completely safe here in a district that has changed very little other than to take in some additional Republican territory. Safe Republican.
Questions? Comments? Complaints?
For Carnahan, I would suggest remvoing Cape Girardeau though. Besides being Rush Limbaugh’s hometown, it is also heavily Republican. There are some rural counties like Iron and Washington County which Obama won and are close to Carnahan’s district. It would be a good idea to add those and remove some of Cape Girardeau.
MO is a real wildcard. I like your map because it clarified my thinking. Lacy Clay’s seat is safe for him but I think he would not like it. Too much territory and as noted its got that GOP area in St Charles. I think Lacy Clay asks for and gets more friendly area in st. Louis county and city. He either gets it from democrats or from republicans. Either way he stays out of St Charles county.
Lacy Clay got rolled in 2001 by the very powerful congressman Dick Gephardt. That does not happen now.
Lacy Clay is his own man. He has announced his oppisition to a white County judge that McCaskill and the President have nominated for a federal judgeship. He is not going to be shy about flexing his muscles in this redistricting fight.
That being making predictions about the outcome is a wildcard.
I really like your setup for CD5. I think that pleases Graves & Cleaver
1. Missouri now has 2010 census numbers in DRA, so hopefully you used those.
2. If you want to keep MO-3 borderline competitive, it ought to include all of Jefferson, Saint Genevieve, Washington, and Iron Counties. It’s true that the four put together only have around 272,000 people and a PVI of R+2, but combined with the right Saint Louis area voters, it’s not too bad. Hell, you could probably throw in Saint Francois as well – McCain only won it by 5%. This brings the total up to 338,000, and R+3.
I realized I wasn’t using the 2010 Census numbers and that I needed to draw the map from scratch in order to access them, as some of the voting districts appear to have changed.
To make up for it…double the fun.