The 2010 census data recently came out for Arizona. I haven’t seen any maps since then, so I wanted to try to guess what the commission will do to get the ball rolling. I don’t have much local knowledge of Arizona, so if I have butchered something, please let me know!
1st District- Paul Gosar (R)
New District VAPs
White: 64.1%
Black: 01.4%
Hispanic: 15.2%
Asian: 01.2%
Nat. Am.: 16.8%
Old District VAPs
White: 62.3%
Black: 01.6%
Hispanic: 16.9%
Asian: 01.2%
Nat. Am.: 16.6%
This district gets a bit whiter as it drops its portion of Pinal County in exchange for conservative Cochise County. I think this change is justifiable as it allows the 8th to become a more Tucson-centric district. The PVI probably shifts a point or two to the right, making the district R+7. Even though Democrats held this seat until this year, I think it would be tough to recover.
2nd District- Trent Franks (R)
New District VAPs
White: 70.0%
Black: 03.5%
Hispanic: 20.1%
Asian: 02.2%
Nat. Am.: 02.8%
Old District VAPs
White: 74.1%
Black: 03.2%
Hispanic: 16.8%
Asian: 02.7%
Nat. Am.: 01.8%
This district had to shed about 150,000 people. Because the district has to take in the Hopi reservation, all of the loss came in metro Phoenix. The district also picks up La Paz County from the 7th. I’m not sure that Trent Frank’s portion of Glendale is in the district, but it contains most of his old territory. Though the district gets less white, its PVI is probably around R+9.
3rd District- Ben Quayle (R)
New District VAPs
White: 76.8%
Black: 03.0%
Hispanic: 14.2%
Asian: 03.6%
Nat. Am.: 01.0%
Old District VAPs
White: 74.9%
Black: 03.0%
Hispanic: 15.9%
Asian: 03.6%
Nat. Am.: 01.2%
This district has shifted a bit east and includes Peoria and portions of Phoenix and Glendale. The PVI is probably unchanged at R+9. Even with Ben Quayle, this district would be hard to win.
4th District- Ed Pastor (D)
New District VAPs
White: 25.0%
Black: 09.2%
Hispanic: 60.0%
Asian: 02.9%
Nat. Am.: 01.7%
Old District VAPs
White: 27.3%
Black: 08.9%
Hispanic: 57.6%
Asian: 02.6%
Nat. Am.: 2.2%
The district takes in central Phoenix and southern Glendale. It is not much changed and should be a safe Democratic district.
5th District- David Schweikert (R)
New District VAPs
White: 75.7%
Black: 02.8%
Hispanic: 15.4%
Asian: 03.0%
Nat. Am.: 01.8%
Old District VAPs
White: 73.8%
Black: 03.7%
Hispanic: 14.0%
Asian: 04.7%
Nat. Am.: 02.2%
The district loses Tempe and a portion of Phoenix to the south, becoming a Scottsdale-centric district. I’d guess it also becomes a bit more Republican with a PVI of R+7. This district would be hard for a Democrat to pick up.
6th District- Open
New District VAPs
White: 76.9%
Black: 02.7%
Hispanic: 14.7%
Asian: 03.0%
Nat. Am.: 01.4%
Old District VAPs
White: 73.7%
Black: 03.0%
Hispanic: 17.2%
Asian: 03.9%
Nat. Am.: 00.9%
The district loses a portion of western Mesa and all of Chandler and picks up more of eastern Pinal County. This monstrously Republican district probably becomes even more so. It has no incumbent due to Jeff Flake’s Senate run.
7th District- Raul Grijalva (D)
New District VAPs
White: 38.3%
Black: 03.2%
Hispanic: 51.2%
Asian: 01.7%
Nat. Am.: 04.6%
Old District VAPs
White: 38.7%
Black: 03.6%
Hispanic: 50.1%
Asian: 02.2%
Nat. Am.: 04.1%
This district loses La Paz County and a bit of Tucson while adding western Pinal County. On balance, it becomes slightly more Hispanic. The PVI is probably similar to the current D+6. Since he won in 2010 after urging a boycott of the state, I have to assume he’ll be safe in this district.
8th District- Gabriele Giffords (D)
New District VAPs
White: 71.6%
Black: 03.1%
Hispanic: 19.1%
Asian: 03.3%
Nat. Am.: 00.9%
Old District VAPs
White: 72.7%
Black: 03.2%
Hispanic: 18.9%
Asian: 02.9%
Nat. Am.: 00.8%
This district drops conservative Cochise County and picks up more of the city of Tucson. It is now contained entirely in Pima County. I’d guess that the PVI shifts from R+4 to about even. If Giffords runs again, she’ll probably win, though I’d consider this a toss-up district.
9th District- New District
New District VAPs
White: 64.8%
Black: 04.4%
Hispanic: 21.5%
Asian: 05.6%
Nat. Am.: 02.0%
This new district contains Chandler, Tempe, western Mesa, and the southern portion of Phoenix. Because no incumbent lives in this district and because its PVI is probably about even, I’d expect a competitive election in 2012.
Overall, the map has 5 Republican districts, 2 Democratic districts, and 2 pure toss-up districts. In my view, this will better than the current map, which really had two Democratic districts and six Republican ones.
Just a few quick observations and one question.
Question. Does David have the partisan numbers up yet? When he does AZ you need to post them.
Here’s my observation.
CD1 moves makes a bit to the right as does CD5 so that part would not displease the GOP one bit. Two freshman get better seats.
CD8-Gabby Giffords moves well to the left. She loses Pinal county part which lost 1K and Cochise which she lost by 4K. She picks up much friendly Pima county areas. She gets a break under this map and she certainly deserves it.
CD7-Congressman Grijalva looks like he is getting the short end of the straw. I know the % are similar but not all white and hispanic voters are alike. Losing LaPaz is nice for Grijalva but that Pinal county area is not. That area will strong for GOP candidates in 2010. It also looks like Grijalva loses some working class voters in Tucson area to Giffords but ends up with additional white or suburban voters in Pinal & Maricopa. I would love to see the political numbers on this seat as I think it moves rightward a few %.
My sense of CD6 & CD9 is that CD6 might be a lean R while CD9 looks likely R. That’s just a guess on my part. Mind you CD5 is lean R and was a D seat for several years so its not a given by any means.
I’m writing up a bunch of AZ maps but yours looks very different from any of mine. I like the way you kept cities together for the most part. Notes on districts:
AZ1: I think it’s about a wash for Gosar. He won his section of Pinal, and loses a decent chunk of Yavapai which was his best county by far.
AZ5: I think it’s still lean R, but it’s picking up some very blue parts of Phoenix.
AZ6: the eastern part of Pinal is dominated by mining and I think it fits better with AZ1 than AZ6.
AZ7: Grijalva would probably have the edge here now, but it’s likely to move away from him when/if exurban Pinal starts growing again. He got thumped in Pinal overall in 2010, and probably did especially badly in the northern exurban area.
AZ8: It looks like most of the precincts you added are in Tucson proper which is very blue. This district would probably be lean D (+2 to +4) in a neutral year.
AZ9: This is basically the current AZ5 but swaps out Scottsdale for the rest of Chandler and a bit more of west Mesa. I think it would start out tilt R or lean R, but drift left over time as most built-out districts do.
for the Democrats. Stronger hold on AZ-8, Hispanic majorities sustained in AZ-4 and AZ-7, so that’s three pretty likely seats, plus a competitive AZ-9. Most people seem to assume AZ-9 will be lean-Republican at least due to the growth in conservative suburbs west and southeast of Phoenix.
holding the seats of Pastor, Grijalva, and Giffords under any likely map (thank goodness for commission-drawing here otherwise we could have gotten really screwed). The interesting thing will be how swingy areas in the current AZ-05 are handled, and what the new Phoenix district looks like. I’m really curious to see how Obama fares in the state facing someone who isn’t McCain, and how that impacts down-ballot races.