Author: M Riles

The 2010 census data recently came out for Arizona. I haven’t seen any maps since then, so I wanted to try to guess what the commission will do to get the ball rolling.  I don’t have much local knowledge of Arizona, so if I have butchered something, please let me know!

1st District- Paul Gosar (R)

New District VAPs

White:      64.1%

Black:      01.4%

Hispanic:   15.2%

Asian:      01.2%

Nat. Am.:   16.8%

Old District VAPs

White:       62.3%

Black:       01.6%

Hispanic:    16.9%

Asian:       01.2%

Nat. Am.:    16.6%

This district gets a bit whiter as it drops its portion of Pinal County in exchange for conservative Cochise County.  I think this change is justifiable as it allows the 8th to become a more Tucson-centric district.  The PVI probably shifts a point or two to the right, making the district R+7.  Even though Democrats held this seat until this year, I think it would be tough to recover.

2nd District- Trent Franks (R)

New District VAPs

White:      70.0%

Black:      03.5%

Hispanic:   20.1%

Asian:      02.2%

Nat. Am.:   02.8%

Old District VAPs

White:      74.1%

Black:      03.2%

Hispanic:   16.8%

Asian:      02.7%

Nat. Am.:   01.8%

This district had to shed about 150,000 people.  Because the district has to take in the Hopi reservation, all of the loss came in metro Phoenix.  The district also picks up La Paz County from the 7th.  I’m not sure that Trent Frank’s portion of Glendale is in the district, but it contains most of his old territory.  Though the district gets less white, its PVI is probably around R+9.  

3rd District- Ben Quayle (R)

New District VAPs

White:      76.8%

Black:      03.0%

Hispanic:   14.2%

Asian:      03.6%

Nat. Am.:   01.0%

Old District VAPs

White:      74.9%

Black:      03.0%

Hispanic: 15.9%

Asian:      03.6%

Nat. Am.: 01.2%

This district has shifted a bit east and includes Peoria and portions of Phoenix and Glendale.  The PVI is probably unchanged at R+9.  Even with Ben Quayle, this district would be hard to win.

4th District- Ed Pastor (D)

New District VAPs

White:      25.0%

Black:      09.2%

Hispanic:   60.0%

Asian:      02.9%

Nat. Am.:   01.7%

Old District VAPs

White:     27.3%

Black:     08.9%

Hispanic:  57.6%

Asian:     02.6%

Nat. Am.:  2.2%

The district takes in central Phoenix and southern Glendale.  It is not much changed and should be a safe Democratic district.

5th District- David Schweikert (R)

New District VAPs

White:      75.7%

Black:      02.8%

Hispanic:   15.4%

Asian:      03.0%

Nat. Am.:   01.8%

Old District VAPs

White:      73.8%

Black:      03.7%

Hispanic:   14.0%

Asian:      04.7%

Nat. Am.:   02.2%

The district loses Tempe and a portion of Phoenix to the south, becoming a Scottsdale-centric district.  I’d guess it also becomes a bit more Republican with a PVI of R+7.  This district would be hard for a Democrat to pick up.

6th District- Open

New District VAPs

White:      76.9%

Black:      02.7%

Hispanic:   14.7%

Asian:      03.0%

Nat. Am.:   01.4%

Old District VAPs

White:      73.7%

Black:      03.0%

Hispanic:   17.2%

Asian:      03.9%

Nat. Am.:   00.9%

The district loses a portion of western Mesa and all of Chandler and picks up more of eastern Pinal County.  This monstrously Republican district probably becomes even more so.  It has no incumbent due to Jeff Flake’s Senate run.

7th District- Raul Grijalva (D)

New District VAPs

White:      38.3%

Black:      03.2%

Hispanic:   51.2%

Asian:      01.7%

Nat. Am.:   04.6%

Old District VAPs

White:      38.7%

Black:      03.6%

Hispanic:   50.1%

Asian:      02.2%

Nat. Am.:   04.1%

This district loses La Paz County and a bit of Tucson while adding western Pinal County.  On balance, it becomes slightly more Hispanic.  The PVI is probably similar to the current D+6.  Since he won in 2010 after urging a boycott of the state, I have to assume he’ll be safe in this district.

8th District- Gabriele Giffords (D)

New District VAPs

White:      71.6%

Black:      03.1%

Hispanic:   19.1%

Asian:      03.3%

Nat. Am.:   00.9%

Old District VAPs

White:      72.7%

Black:      03.2%

Hispanic:   18.9%

Asian:      02.9%

Nat. Am.:   00.8%

This district drops conservative Cochise County and picks up more of the city of Tucson.  It is now contained entirely in Pima County.  I’d guess that the PVI shifts from R+4 to about even.  If Giffords runs again, she’ll probably win, though I’d consider this a toss-up district.

9th District- New District

New District VAPs

White:      64.8%

Black:      04.4%

Hispanic:   21.5%

Asian:      05.6%

Nat. Am.:   02.0%

This new district contains Chandler, Tempe, western Mesa, and the southern portion of Phoenix.  Because no incumbent lives in this district and because its PVI is probably about even, I’d expect a competitive election in 2012.

Overall, the map has 5 Republican districts, 2 Democratic districts, and 2 pure toss-up districts.  In my view, this will better than the current map, which really had two Democratic districts and six Republican ones.

Democratic control of the Virginia Senate gives Democrats the possibility of some leverage in drawing the lines for Congress.  Retaining control of the Senate is very important if Republicans put off redrawing the Congressional lines until after November, but the majority is fairly narrow at 22D-18R, and the entire body is up for re-election this fall.  

I’ve attempted to create a map that balances the interests of current senators in reelection and the national interests of the party in maintaining control by any means necessary.  I think I’ve been able to sufficiently protect all incumbents while maximizing the number of Democratic districts, and the map is a large improvement over the current Republican gerrymander.  Although conventional wisdom holds that each chamber will draw its own lines, I’m not sure the House of Delegates would approve something like this map.

Western Virginia:

District 15: Open

Obama 53.9%

Democratic 51.1%

District 19: Ralph Smith (R)

Obama 38.3%

Democratic 40.1%

District 20: Roscoe Reynolds (D)

Obama 52.2%

Democratic 49.5%

District 21: John Edwards (D)

Obama 52.6%

Democratic 51.8%

District 22: Open

Obama 34.4%

Democratic 38.7%

District 23: Steve Neuman (R), Bill Stanley (R)

Obama 33.5%

Democratic 35.3%

Note: Making a last minute change with the 21st, I accidentally cut this district in half, but it would only require shifting one precinct to make the district contiguous.

District 24: Emmett Hanger (R)

Obama 34.7%

Democratic 33.0%

District 25 Creigh Deeds (D)

Obama 58.4%

Democratic 56.3%

District 38: Phil Puckett (D)

Obama 50.2%

Democratic 52.1%

District 40: William Wampler (R)

Obama 34.1%

Democratic 38.1%

Eastern Virginia:

District 1: Tommy Norment (R)

Obama 41.1%

Democratic 41.2%

District 2: Mamie Locke (D), John Miller (D) (maybe)

Obama 72.3%

Democratic 66.3%

Black VAP 51.1%

District 3: Ryan McDougal (R), Walter Stosch (R)

Obama 35.8%

Democratic 35.2%

District 4: Richard Stuart (R)

Obama 45.1%

Democratic 42.5%

District 5: Yvonne Miller (D)

Obama 72.7%

Democratic 67.9%

Black VAP 51.3%

District 6: Ralph Northam (D)

Obama 56.7%

Democratic 52.5%

District 7: Frank Wagner (R)

Obama 55.1%

Democratic 49.5%

District 8: Jeff McWaters (R)

Obama 53.1%

Democratic 52.2%

District 9: Donald McEachin (D)

Obama 74.7%

Democratic 70.5%

Black VAP 56.7%

District 10: John Watkins (R)

Obama 42.2%

Democratic 39.0%

District 11: Steve Martin (R), Frank Ruff (R)

Obama 37.8%

Democratic 35.6%

District 12: Open

Obama 64.1%

Democratic 59.0%

District 13: Fred Quayle (R), John Miller (D) (maybe)

Obama 50.3%

Democratic 49.5%

District 14: Harry Blevins (R)

Obama 39.7%

Democratic 39.0%

District 16: Henry Marsh (D)

Obama 72.1%

Democratic 65.0%

Black VAP 51.0%

District 17: Edd Houck (D)

Obama 51.2%

Democratic 45.2%

District 18: Louise Lucas (D)

Obama 65.1%

Democratic 61.3%

Black VAP 52.3%

Northern Virginia:

District 26: Mark Obenshain (R)

Obama 41.6%

Democratic 37.9%

District 27: Jill Vogel (R)

Obama 37.9%

Democratic 40.6%

District 28: Open

Obama 43.9%

Democratic 41.0%

District 29: Chuck Colgan (D)

Obama 58.9%

Democratic 50.0%

District 30: Patsy Ticer (D)

Obama 68.6%

Democratic 66.2%

District 31: Mary Margaret Whipple (D)

Obama 68.1%

Democratic 70.3%

District 32: Janet Howell (D)

Obama 59.0%

Democratic 57.2%

District 33: Mark Herring (D)

Obama 54.6%

Democratic 49.2%

District 34: Chap Peterson (D)

Obama 58.8%

Democratic 54.7%

District 35: Dick Saslaw (D)

Obama 61.9%

Democratic 58.9%

District 36: Toddy Puller (D)

Obama 68.4%

Democratic 61.5%

District 37: Dave Marsden (D)

Obama 59.4%

Democratic 54.6%

District 39: George Barker (D)

Obama 56.2%

Democratic 53.0%

I would rate the lean of the seats as follows:

Safe Democratic (Obama and Democratic vote percentage both above 50%): 22

Toss-up (Obama percentage or Democratic vote percentage above 50%): 5

Safe Republican (Everything else): 13

Thoughts?

Here is my spin on Virginia with the 2010 Census and political data in Dave’s App.  Because of Democratic control of the Senate and Republican control of everything else, a court-drawn map is a reasonable possibility in Virginia. I attempted to prioritize the same goals a court would.  These goals were:

1. Preserve a majority-black voter district

2. Avoid county splitting

3. Keep each district limited to one region of the state

4. Compactness

Hampton Roads:

Northern Virginia:

District 1: Tidewater

Incumbent: Rob Wittman (R)

Population: 726,817

Two-Party Partisan Performance:

New District: 45.5% Obama, 43.4% Democratic

Old District: 48.4% Obama, 44.8% Democratic

Racial/Ethnic Demographics:

71.3% White

18.8% Black

04.6% Hispanic

02.2% Asian

This district takes a portion of the northern peninsula in the Hampton Roads area, the rest of the Tidewater area to the north, and ultra-conservative Hanover County north of Richmond. It becomes less Democratic and safely Republican.

District 2: Hampton Roads

Incumbent: Scott Rigell (R), Randy Forbes (R)

Population: 727,545

Two-Party Partisan Performance:

New District: 49.1% Obama, 46.8% Democratic

Old District: 52.4% Obama, 49.1% Democratic

Racial/Ethnic Demographics:

66.3% White

19.1% Black

06.3% Hispanic

04.9% Asian

The district takes in all of Virginia Beach and the Delmarva Peninsula plus the whiter portions of Chesapeake, Portsmouth, and Norfolk.  The district becomes slightly more Republican. It would be tough, but not impossible, for a Democrat to win here. Randy Forbes and Scott Rigell both live in the district, but because this contains much more of Rigell’s territory, I think he’d have the edge.

District 3: Hampton Roads (VRA District)

Incumbent: Bobby Scott (D)

Population: 726,624

Two-Party Partisan Performance:

New District: 69.2% Obama, 65.1% Democratic

Old District: 75.7% Obama, 71.3% Democratic

Racial/Ethnic Demographics:

38.3% White

53.2% Black

04.0% Hispanic

01.8% Asian

This district becomes much more compact, leaving the Richmond area. It is still has a majority of black voters, though that majority is a few percentage points smaller. This district is very safe for Democrats.

District 4: Southside

Incumbent: Robert Hurt (R)

Population: 727,567

Two-Party Partisan Performance:

New District: 42.2% Obama, 43.2% Democratic

Old District: 51.0% Obama, 49.0% Democratic

Racial/Ethnic Demographics:

68.0% White

28.0% Black

03.0% Hispanic

01.1% Asian

This district shifts west, taking in Virginia’s Southside region. It becomes much more Republican and is probably unwinnable for Democrats.

District 5: Piedmont

Incumbent: None

Population: 728,108

Two-Party Partisan Performance:

New District: 49.7% Obama, 46.2% Democratic

Old District: 48.5% Obama, 47.3% Democratic

Racial/Ethnic Demographics:

73.6% White

14.4% Black

06.2% Hispanic

03.0% Asian

This district shifts north, still containing Charlottesvile but trading Southside for Virginia wine country and portions of the Northern Virginia exurbs. It becomes slightly more Democratic and is winnable with the right candidate. Eric Cantor would probably run here, since it contains a fair amount of his old turf.

District 6: Shenandoah Valley

Incumbent: Bob Goodlatte

Population: 728,381

Two-Party Partisan Performance:

New District: 42.4% Obama, 40.5% Democratic

Old District: 41.9% Obama, 57.9% Democratic

Racial/Ethnic Demographics:

83.9% White

07.9% Black

05.1% Hispanic

01.2% Asian

This is still a Shenandoah Valley district and very, very Republican.

District 7: Richmond

Incumbent: Eric Cantor (R)

Population: 726,869

Two-Party Partisan Performance:

New District: 61.8% Obama, 57.0% Democratic

Old District: 46.6% Obama, 42.1% Democratic

Racial/Ethnic Demographics:

54.0% White

32.7% Black

06.4% Hispanic

04.5% Asian

This district has undergone a huge change, going from a safe Republican to safe Democratic seat.  Eric Cantor would stand little chance of victory here. Sen. Donald McEachin and Del. Jennifer McClellan would be the likely Democratic candidates.

District 8: Northern Virginia

Incumbent: Jim Moran (D)

Population: 727,201

Partisan Performance:

New District: 68.2% Obama*, 54.9% Democratic

Old District: 69.3% Obama*, 57.9% Democratic

Racial/Ethnic Demographics:

52.4% White

14.1% Black

18.9% Hispanic

11.3% Asian

This district contains all of Arlington County and Alexandria City, plus other close-in suburbs in Fairfax County. It becomse slightly less Democratic, but remains safe.

*Note that President Obama’s performance is slightly understated due to an error in the data.

District 9: Southwest Virginia

Incumbent: Morgan Griffith (R)

Population: 728,247

Partisan Performance:

New District: 40.1% Obama, 43.2% Democratic

Old District: 40.3% Obama, 43.7% Democratic

Racial/Ethnic Demographics:

92.2% White

03.4% Black

01.8% Hispanic

01.3% Asian

This district contains Southwest Virginia. Its partisan makeup is unchanged and post-Rick Boucher is probably unwinnable for Democrats.

District 10: Northern Virginia

Incumbent: Frank Wolf (R)

Population: 726,837

Two-Party Partisan Performance:

New District: 54.7% Obama*, 53.6% Democratic

Old District: 50.2% Obama*, 47.2% Democratic

Racial/Ethnic Demographics:

62.8% White

06.0% Black

12.6% Hispanic

16.9% Asian

This district shrinks dramatically, dropping its territory outside Northern Virginia. It contains Loudoun County, the City of Falls Church, and northern Fairfax County. The district becomes significantly more Democratic, which might actually encourage a credible challenger to run against Frank Wolf. My guess would be state Sen. Mark Herring.  

*Note that due data errors, this President Obama performed about 2 percentage points better than it appears.

District 11: Northern Virginia

Incumbent: Gerry Connolly (D)

Population: 726,807

Two-Party Partisan Performance:

New District: 57.6% Obama, 51.1% Democratic

Old District: 56.6% Obama, 52.3% Democratic

Racial/Ethnic Demographics:

51.8% White

13.9% Black

17.9% Hispanic

12.6% Asian

This district takes in the remainder of Fairfax County and all of Fairfax City, Mannassas, Manassas Park, and Prince William County.  The partisan composition doesn’t change much.  Since Conolly survived 2010, I have to beleive he’ll be fine in the future.

This map would probably produce 5 Democrats and 6 Republicans.