Democratic Indiana Redistricting

Since the GOP controls redistricting in Indiana, it seems likely that Democrats will be forced down to two congressional districts in the new plan for the state (fortunately, Mitch Daniels seems like he won’t do anything too crazy with redistricting, so we’re unlikely to see any Indy-to-Gary Democratic vote dumps). This is what a hypothetical Democratic map of Indiana would look like.

1st District (blue): Safe D

Basically the same as it is now.

2nd District (green): Safe D

Takes in the Democratic parts of Fort Wayne and loses some of the more conservative parts of the current district. I believe it should be safely democratic now.

3rd District (purple): Safe R

All the Republican parts of Northern Indiana.

4th District (red): Safe R

Indy suburbs. These areas showed some of the strongest swings towards Obama in 2008 of anywhere in the state, meaning that they might becoming competitive in the future, but for now this is deep red country.

5th District (yellow): Safe R

6th District (teal): Safe R

This was once Democratic territory, but it has trended Republican to the point where I don’t see it being competitive for any Democrat.

7th District (gray): Safe D

Gets a couple points more Republican in order to help the 8th, but still safe for Andre Carson.

8th District (slate blue): Likely D

This district includes liberal Bloomington, Democratic leaning Delaware and Madison counties, and some African-American parts of eastern Marion county. The non-Marion parts of the district voted 57% for Obama, and the precincts in Marion county (about 100K people) are 70-80% Democratic, so overall it should have a pretty strong Democratic lean. Still, it might be competitive in a great Republican year (Dan Coats narrowly won here, I believe).

9th District (light blue): Tossup/Lean D?

This district voted 52% for Obama, which would normally make it a tossup district. However, this is an area where conservative Democrats do very well, which is why this may be a Lean D district in practice. If Brad Ellsworth were to run here again I suspect he would win pretty easily.