Today’s Census data dump is three slow-growth northern states: Massachusetts, Michigan, and New Hampshire. Massachusetts is set to lose one seat (from 10 down to 9), meaning its new target is 727,514 (up from about 634K in 2000). Interestingly, the growth among all the districts was pretty consistent, with only about 20,000 difference between the state’s largest and smallest districts. Estimates over the decade had shown Boston losing population, but in the final count it did eke out a small gain.
With no clear loser on the population front among the districts, that makes the question of who draws the shortest redistricting straw even more complicated… unless someone reverses course and decides to retire, either to challenge Scott Brown (most likely Mike Capuano or Stephen Lynch) or to call it a career (John Olver). Olver’s 1st did wind up being the smallest by a small margin, so the most talked-about mashup of the 1st and 2nd may well happen; alternatively, based on seniority the axe could fall on the delegation’s newest member, William Keating. At any rate, with Dems firmly in charge of the process, don’t look for any of these districts to lose their bluish hues; the main question is who gets left without his musical chair.
| District | Rep. | Population | Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|
| MA-01 | Olver (D) | 644,956 | (82,558) |
| MA-02 | Neal (D) | 661,045 | (66,469) |
| MA-03 | McGovern (D) | 664,919 | (62,595) |
| MA-04 | Frank (D) | 656,083 | (71,431) |
| MA-05 | Tsongas (D) | 662,269 | (65,245) |
| MA-06 | Tierney (D) | 650,161 | (77,353) |
| MA-07 | Markey (D) | 648,162 | (79,352) |
| MA-08 | Capuano (D) | 660,414 | (67,100) |
| MA-09 | Lynch (D) | 650,381 | (77,133) |
| MA-10 | Keating (D) | 649,239 | (78,275) |
| Total: | 6,547,629 |
When it was revealed in December that Michigan was the only state out of 50 that actually lost population since 2000, it was clear that the state’s urban districts were in a world of hurt… but I have to admit I’m still surprised at the way that Detroit has utterly cratered. The Motor City, at one point the 4th largest city in America, is now down to 15th, with a population of 713,777 (now smaller than johnny-come-latelies like Columbus, Austin, and Charlotte). The 13th may be the 2nd least populous district in the country at this point (after WY-AL). I briefly had to wonder whether we might actually see Detroit turned into one CD, mostly contiguous with the city boundaries (since it’s now about the same population as an ideal district), but I can’t imagine that the Obama administration’s DOJ would allow the state GOP (which controls the redistricting trifecta) to pack only one overwhelmingly African-American VRA district when the population is there to support two, albeit two that will have to reach significantly into the suburbs now.
Michigan’s current target is 705,974 (based on the drop to 14 from 15 seats), up from about 663K in 2000. That means that six of its districts (the Upper Peninsula-based 1st, the Flint-and-Saginaw 5th, and the 9th and 12th in Detroit’s northern suburbs, in addition to the 13th and 14th) outright lost population over the decade. With the 9th and 12th also big losers, and with the VRA looming over the 13th and 14th, this all seems to confirm what most people are expecting, that Gary Peters and Sandy Levin are going to get much better acquainted with each other in a Dem primary. If you go further out into the districts that contain Detroit’s exurbs (the GOP-held 8th and 10th), those are the two districts in the state that actually need to shed some population.
| District | Rep. | Population | Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|
| MI-01 | Benishek (R) | 650,222 | (55,752) |
| MI-02 | Huizenga (R) | 698,831 | (7,143) |
| MI-03 | Amash (R) | 694,695 | (11,279) |
| MI-04 | Camp (R) | 686,378 | (19,596) |
| MI-05 | Kildee (D) | 635,129 | (70,845) |
| MI-06 | Upton (R) | 671,883 | (34,091) |
| MI-07 | Walberg (R) | 676,899 | (29,075) |
| MI-08 | Rogers (R) | 707,572 | 1,598 |
| MI-09 | Peters (D) | 657,590 | (48,384) |
| MI-10 | Miller (R) | 719,712 | 13,738 |
| MI-11 | McCotter (R) | 695,888 | (10,086) |
| MI-12 | Levin (D) | 636,601 | (69,373) |
| MI-13 | Clarke (D) | 519,570 | (186,404) |
| MI-14 | Conyers (D) | 550,465 | (155,509) |
| MI-15 | Dingell (D) | 682,205 | (23,769) |
| Total: | 9,883,640 |
These two district states are really drama-free, and New Hampshire might be the least dramatic of all. The two districts in the state stayed remarkably balanced (as they always do… the state has had two districts since the 1800s, with the boundaries rarely moving much), to the extent that the 1st needs to pick up only 254 people from the 2nd. I’ll leave it to the good folks in comments to argue over which ward in Hooksett should be the one that gets moved. (New Hampshire’s target was 658,235, up from 618K in 2000.)
| District | Rep. | Population | Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|
| NH-01 | Guinta (R) | 657,984 | (254) |
| NH-02 | Bass (R) | 658,486 | 254 |
| Total: | 1,316,470 |
http://forum.skyscraperpage.co…
… Why bother with moving the boundaries at all in New Hampshire!? They’re almost exactly the same and completely within the allowable limit.
254 people, a deviation of 0.04%. What are the odds?
You can’t make Detroit a single district, because Hamtramck and Highland Park are entirely surrounded by Detroit. Even if you had a single district with those two + most of Detroit, it could potentially help Dems by shifting the very blue areas of MI13 and MI14 outside Detroit to other districts. For example, there would probably be enough left over to give Dingell a deep-blue district with just Monroe and southside areas of Wayne, freeing up uber-blue Ann Arbor to obliterate some other Republican-held district. (Washtenaw, Jackson, and Ingham put together are a little too big to combine in a single mid-state Democratic sink.)
combine Clarke and Conyers but would never get away with it. There is enough black population to support two VRA districts. I’ve always thought it would be Peters v. Levin and that seems almost certain now. They will give Peters’ Republican areas to McCotter, Miller, and Rogers, and make a Democratic vote-sink in Oakland/Macomb that Levin is almost certain to win due to seniority and his reliably liberal record.
As for Massachusetts, I wondered if that would happen…that no district would be the obvious loser. The two most underpopulated districts are in the far west (Olver) and east (Keating). Unless they retire, senior members almost never got screwed in redistricting…though Ben Gilman and John LaFalce in NY were exceptions ten years ago, so there is little precedent for cutting out Olver. Then again, isn’t there a lot of history in the Cape/Nantucket having their own beachy district? (More so than for two western Mass districts, anyway.) Lynch or Capuano should announce against Brown and then they can cut out a Boston seat.
How is it possible for Ohio and New York to each lose 2 seats and gain population since 2000 but Michigan only loses 1 seat and is the only state to actually lose population?
so who gets chopped in MA?
Methinks G. Peters has other things “on the agenda”…
I’ve heard a few blurbs fomenting about his other aspirations.
I’d love to see Peters and Levin in a heated primary and Rep. Marty Knollenberg (on Redistricting) take the reins.
It seems that Michigan is poised to boot D-Stabs out and see some other gains in local elections too.
MI-07, MI-06, MI-01, WV-02
I can’t ever recall a time when Detroit was larger than Philly.
The 13th, and 14th are both smaller than Wyoming, which has a population of 563,626.
Just so folks now, Detroit surrounds two small enclave cities that combine to have a population of 34,199. Add that to Detroit, and you get 747,976. Given the rules against splitting cities and such here in Michigan, Detroit couldn’t be squeezed into one district.
There have been a lot of conversations from people (both on this site, and here in MA) who say they think it will be Tierney. Under most circumstances I’d have to agree, but geography is reality in this case.
Tierney lives in the coastal city of Salem. In order to draw Salem into any district you would need to draw in the cities of Lynn, Saugus, Swampscott and Marblehead – at least. These are populated areas which will be a Tierney base – which incumbent congressman would want to see their district absorb Tierney and his base?? Furthermore, what happens to the majority of towns and cities north of Salem? They will not be drawn into Niki’s district because that makes her district dramatically redder (and forces her to lose MUCH of her territory west of Lowell).
I personally believe the Tsongas and Tierney districts are the two safest in MA. Ironically, this is then followed by Keatings (you really can’t gerrymander it given the shape of the Cape). Were Keating not “based” out of Quincy in the northern tip of the 10th I would say he was as safe as the other two.
Ironic, isn’t it? The two newest members, along with the one that is carrying baggage, are the safest?
http://www.malegislature.gov/D…
Do you think Fred Upton likes to introduce himself as being from “Em-eye-six”? Upton, Fred Upton…