It’s a subject of much debate (and some confusion), and it’ll remain at least somewhat opaque until the Obama Department of Justice weighs in, but the question still is: Where will we see new majority-minority districts created in order to comply with the Voting Rights Act? I invite you to list any states – and especially regions of those states – where you think maj-min districts could get drawn, whether by state legislatures, by the DoJ, or in the end, by the courts. Bonus points for anyone who actually draws any proposed VRA districts.
62 thoughts on “Where Will We See New VRA Districts?”
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Those two are certain to have new majority-minority seats. At minimum two and as many as six in the case of California. I’ll be drawing a new California map soon enough so I’ll have to take a raincheck on the bonus points!
The Republicans are talking about goin 4-0 with the new districts but I’ll guess that they’ll be forced to do atleast 2-2 for VRA Hispanic seats.
GA-02 is likely going to become VRA. The GA GOP will be more limited this time because of how much Georgia has diversified.
The 6th and 2nd have a black VAP of 50.6%. Both districts are pretty compact I think.
I think it’s relevant all the same that if Republicans want a 9-4 edge in NC they’ll have to make a vote sink in the southeastern part of the state, and given that area’s large black and native american population will likely make it majority-minority though still plurality white.
Here are two examples I had drawn a while ago:
In this one it’s the gray district which is 46% white, 35% black, 8% hispanic, and 8% native approximately.
Of course that’s a pretty disgusting gerrymander so there’s this version where it’s the blue district:
48% white, 32.5% black, 7% hispanic, and 9% native
The second one probably wouldn’t elect a minority dem since Larry Kissell would likely still win it, but the first version probably would since it’s a lot more Democratic.
Anyway, more on topic; I would love to see the DOJ try to force Louisiana to draw a second black majority VRA district based in Baton Rouge and the northern part of the state since several maps have been posted on here recently that show it can be done, as well as a second one in Alabama though that seems considerably less likely.
State Senator Mamie Locke (D-2nd/Hampton) has released a congressional redistricting plan showing the current GOP held fourth congressional district going from about 34 percent to 53 percent African American. Dem Rep. Bobby Scott’s third district goes from about 55 percent to just under 45 percent African American. However, the white percentage goes up to nearly 48 percent. Locke introduced a similar proposal in 2001.
It will be very interesting to see if the GOP map prevails over the DOJ. We shall see . . .
Other than GA-02, I don’t actually expect any new VRA-protected African-American districts anywhere in the country. States like South Carolina are getting whiter, and Virginia and Louisiana are seeing black growth % matching the statewide average–and spreading out–so that it would be hard to maintain two A-A seats decade after decade. Some districts, like MO-01 and NC-12, will probably actually lose their existing black majorities, though they should still have at least a 50% ethnic minority population, which is the most basic consideration. The highest growth rates in black population are occurring out west where there are not nearly enough African-Americans to form a VRA seat on their behalf.
Hispanics are a different story. Expect a few more VRA Latino districts in California, one or two in Texas, possibly one in Nevada. Florida’s new I-4 district may have a considerable Hispanic minority, on the order of 35-40%, if they draw a Dem-leaning seat near Orlando/Kissimmee.
1 in Texas (D/FW Hispanic), a new Dem seat will be made south of Corpus as Farenthold moves to the country land and is not the VRA seat any longer.
New seat in SC.
And my dream case, Alabama gets a second VRA seat around Montgomery, going solid 5-2.
There has been a lot of talk lately about Louisiana getting a new majority-minority seat, thanks to that traitor Boustany.
Pardon the digression, but I’m actually a little confused over how the Voting Rights Act requires the creation of majority-minority language. What I’ve read about the Act doesn’t seem to address this specifically.
Was it a court decision, the DoJ, or did the original legislative language require this?
Could add the following pretty easily
GA – 3 (making GA-2 and GA-12 into majority-black seats, plus GA-7 into a majority-minority seat)
VA – 2 (one more AA seat plus majority-minority in NOVA)
NC – 1 (Majority-minority)
SC – 1 (AA)
AL – 1 (AA)
MS – 1 (AA)
LA – 1 (AA)
AR – 1 (Majority-Minority)
That’s only looking at the “traditional south.” There are obviously more opportunities in Texas, Florida, California, and elsewhere. That said, I think it’s more difficult to determine what would make a good VRA seat in Latino areas due to the whole citizenship/low voting participation issue.
Also, while I’d like Eric Holder to do this, the right wing would have a field day if an African-American attorney general under an African American president was forcing the creation of more African-American seats in the South. Thus I expect we’d only get a few of these.
is what states are LOSING VRA districts – i.e. which states have lost enough minority population that they no longer qualify, esp. with a hostile GOP trifecta? In other words, how many Rust Belt states are going to hack a district that used to be VRA but no longer qualifies due to population loss?
For example:
MI-13 and MI-14….one of these is probably gone.
MO-05 is almost certainly gone, as it needs to eat a good portion of the KC suburbs to account for population loss in the city. MO-01 will be gone by 2020.
Either FL-17 or FL-23 could be replaced by a majority-Cuban district – still VRA, but way less Democratic.
OH-11 will probably still be VRA this time, but has lost so much population that it won’t be in 2020.
There’s even been talk of the PA GOP hacking PA-02 to get rid of Fattah, drawing him in with Schwartz in PA-13.
It gets even more interesting if you look at majority-white districts that have a substantial minority population. For example:
OH-01: Seriously, if they don’t split the black vote in Cincinnati, Chabot could still go down in a 2008-like wave. If I were them I’d give a few more blacks to Schmidt, let her lose, then run a competent candidate in OH-02 the following cycle. There’s no reason why a seat this red should be giving the GOP heartburn cycle after cycle, and, well, it’s not as though OH-02’s constituents aren’t already better represented by Orange Man in the district next door anyway.
IN-07: If the map released yesterday has the lines where I think it does when I tried to replicate it in DRA, Carson could be in trouble.
KS-03: Same phenomenon as MO-05. It’s very easy to make a Johnson County-based district that goes down along the MO border and is safe for Yoder, give KC to Jenkins, but give Manhattan to KS-01 to compensate. In any case, the minority part of KC on the Kansas side is as out of luck as the minorities on the Missouri side.
And so on.
I think they’ll draw a Hispanic seat in DFW and a new Hispanic seat, splitting McAllen to San Antonio. They have to do both, though they can attach the new McAllen seat to conservative suburbs of San Antonio, making it ~47-48% Obama.
for TX w/ 9 hispanic-majority seats:
http://www.maldef.org/news/rel…